In this week's edition of P.O. Sox, our White Sox mailbag, Josh, James and I answer questions about Pedro Grifol's continued employment and the managers who could've been, the latest draft news at No. 5, trade values, sleeper prospects, pitching development and more.
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What in your honest most reasoned opinion is the primary reason that the Sox have not fired Grifol. Financial?
-- Matt H.
Jim: I’d say it’s more along the lines of stagnation, indifference, myopia, those sorts of things. The White Sox just cut Tim Hill, who was practically owed this season was Grifol is being paid over the remainder of his contract.
With the manager, Reinsdorf needs to know him on a level that he doesn’t need to know Hill, and Reinsdorf operates as though he wants to meet as few new people as possible. That’s why Getz was hired to replace Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams, and if he likes Grifol enough as a person, and if Grifol indulges Tony La Russa’s amorphous presence in the organization with gusto, then that’s good enough for now, and it delays his need to have to care about Charlie Montoyo or whoever else takes the job next.
James: They're just not at a point in their cycle where there's a lot of immediate reward to nailing their manager hire and maximizing their major league product. Grifol is here and replacing him with his own staff on an interim basis would be all about shaking things up and making a show of disgust and intolerance of the current state of them, rather than staking out a new direction or salvaging a would-be contention year. The recent organizational record of firings for the sake of themselves is fairly light.
What's the latest? ..... Pitcher or Position Player at #5?
-- Michael B.
Josh: It's a month away from the MLB Draft, and nobody has a good feel in which direction the White Sox could go, Michael. We have heard about the White Sox scouting prep players Konnor Griffin and Bryce Rainer. That's significant because the White Sox are the only team in the top five picks willing to go the prep route. Cleveland, Cincinnati, Colorado, and Oakland are expected to go college players, with only Colorado looking at a pitcher (Wake Forest's Chase Burns). The Guardians are considering multiple players at pick one, and Cincinnati will take either Travis Bazzana or Charlie Condon with the second pick. For a while, there were ties between Oakland and Wake Forest's first baseman, Nick Kurtz.
I am speculating, but I would put the odds at 60/40 that the White Sox will go the position player route with the fifth pick. If the draft were tomorrow, the conversation would likely be between Griffin and Arkansas LHP Hagen Smith, who has similarities to Garrett Crochet (2020 first-rounder) and Noah Schultz (2022 first-rounder).
James: I have not covered the draft options specifically as tightly as Josh, but would just add that the White Sox are very aware that their farm system is lopsided in favor of pitching, and that impact prospect positional talent has been harder to acquire on the trade market.
Do Crochet and Robert hold more value as the linchpin of the 25/26 teams or as fuel for the 26/27 teams?
-- Andrew S.
Jim: Realistically, it’s probably the latter, just because there are so many reasons the White Sox have for not spending – attendance, a new RSN, Reinsdorf wanting to make Bridgeport look as unsuitable as possible in his quest for public funds – that I wouldn’t count on them splurging (even by their standards) to turn the page after Eloy Jiménez and Yoán Moncada leave the building. But I also don’t see it as a cause to champion, because after intentionally burning it all down, resetting the payroll and doing nearly nothing with that opportunity, there’s no reason to think they’ll be any better at it. I’m taking a fatalistic approach to the whole thing.
James: The cold and rational answer is the latter given the lengthy injury histories on both. But with the outward stance that the team is losing money during this down period and a new network to launch, the White Sox have maintained that they want their losing cycle to end as soon as possible. Robert and Crochet make it a shorter path to being watchable and decent within the next two years, but maybe that's just the line the front office uses to maintain leverage while shopping them.
Kevin Shannon: Crochet has barely thrown his slider in his last two starts. Is this a permanent change, a temporary adjustment?
James: Both? He hasn't junked his slider but the slider/sweeper/sweeping slider has been harder to use against right-handers because of how long of a look they get at its movement. No sane manager puts any left-hander he doesn't have to use in a lineup against Crochet. And Crochet has reached a level of comfort with the cutter where he feels like he can throw a traditional strike-grabbing/weak contact version and also one with another depth and enough velocity separation to get swings and misses. So he's been of the mind to attack fastball/cutter and wait for the opposition to force an adjustment, reminiscent of some of Lucas Giolito's fastball/changeup starts in 2019-2020. Ideally this also crescendoes with Crochet throwing nothing but cutters against a hapless Tigers lineup for multiple innings.
Duke Ellis was not on most people's bingo cards. Could you name 3 White Sox prospects you think they will be called up for the first time this year? Any sleeper like Duke? If you think it will be less than 3, then indicate who. Thank you!
-- As Cirensica
Jim: Relievers are typically the way to cheat on this question, so I could say Josimar Cousin, Eric Adler and Adisyn Coffey, or something like that to name three entirely with sweepers. Being less cute about it, most of Birmingham’s rotation could be eligible for a spot start if the White Sox trade both Crochet and Erick Fedde. Position players are a little harder to come by. I think the White Sox would love to have every reason to call up Colson Montgomery in September, and Edgar Quero’s immense workload is either showing he can survive a six-month season, or giving him an excuse to coast to the finish line. I don’t know if you’ll see Jacob Gonzalez or Brooks Baldwin given a 40-man roster spot before it’s necessary, if only because they have more trade value if teams don’t have to make room for them.
James: Montgomery needs 40-man protection this winter, as does Sean Burke, so late-season cameos for them don't necessarily need to be hard-earned with a long string of Charlotte dominance. Speaking f a long string of dominance, Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa has been doing all he can at Birmingham to push himself to the top of the list since coming over for Robbie Grossman (11 strikeouts to one walk in 7 1/3 innings, with one run allowed).
AJ Hinch and Matt Quatraro were top contenders for the Sox manager positions when we hired TLR and Grifol. Now that both the tigers and royals are not in the guttter anymore and are thriving (Royals), what can we see from their approaches that signal a “what might have been” if we hired them?
-- Michael L.
Jim: In the Pedro Grifol window, Ron Washington was my “what might have been” candidate because an unusual situation required an unusual guy, and I thought his mix of experience, credibility and media savvy had the best chance of giving the White Sox a jolt. The Angels hired him, and the Angels are as big a mess as ever, so I don’t think he – or anybody else – would’ve made a measurable difference with overcoming the team’s self-imposed obstacles.
In the Tony La Russa window, I thought A.J. Hinch might’ve been fine, but I had doubts about whether he possessed any special ability when divorced from the then well-oiled Astros machine. Nothing about the way the Tigers have played under him suggests that he’s a miracle worker. I think the Royals are a good example of a manager’s role for most teams, because Matt Quatraro had a worse record than Grifol last season, and now he’s a Manager of the Year candidate. If he communicates a sound thought process and works well with a front office that’s trying to improve the team, that’s most of the job. He’s better than Grifol with regards to the first part, but were Quatraro hired by the White Sox, the work above him would still be lacking.
What is the over/under of pitchers starting a game for the 2024 white sox?
-- Rock_Beats_Papr
Jim: The White Sox are already at 10, 11 if you don’t count openers. If you count actual starters, I think the Sox could easily field five more, because they could have to fill two to four rotation spots by August, and Brad Keller and Jake Woodford aren’t around to repeat. There comes a point where the Sox would want to spare so much 40-man roster churn for any Chad Kuhl type, so I’ll set it at 16.5.
James: Being out here in Arizona reminds me that Davis Martin is alive, well, and hoped to be back up and running by the All-Star break. If you add him to Burke, Adams, Ky Bush, Jairo Iriarte, it only takes a Jake Eder cameo, or a MLB-ready starter added in deadline trades to clip the over.
The White Sox seems to have a good foundation for developing pitchers in Bannister and his coaching staff. Do you see this as a potential strength, and how could it jumpstart the rebuild? ( I know they are not calling it a rebuild, but I am not sure what else you call it)
--Jonathan S,
James: It's probably healthier to look at Bannister as a roving instructor than "Bannister and his coaching staff," which is probably more appropriate verbiage for pitching coordinator Matt Zaleski. It seems like it's improved, the Birmingham rotation is very encouraging, there's more diversity in the origins of the coaching staff with more people coming from other organizations.
I think we have more intriguing questions than answers. Can Ky Bush, Jake Eder, Grant Taylor, Peyton Pallette provide answers on their ability to get injured pitching prospects back to form? Can Drew Thorpe provide an answer on their ability add velocity to command-first profiles? Can Jairo Iriarte speak to their ability to untap command from good athletes who have not commanded well in the past? Can Mason Adams indicate they can make third day draft picks into viable starters? It seems like he's obviously good on his own now, but Noah Schultz was considered hyper raw on draft night and a risky bet to stay healthy, and even keeping him from breaking would be a big feather in their cap. If any of these things because stuff they can reliably do, then yes, it helps make the rebuild more viable because spending for top of the rotation innings is not something they figure to do.
I don't know if we can put any of them in the W column yet, even if the early returns are exciting. It would nice if they had hit on some of their immediate attempts to find viable relievers on the cheap, because that would demonstrate profiles they can make work right away. At this moment, it doesn't feel like we have great examples of that.
Is it ultimately a good or bad sign the White Sox have resorted to just promoting straight from Double A
-- Alec S.
Jim: I think it’s more good than bad, provided the call-ups follow the Bryan Ramos and Drew Thorpe mold of not looking immediately overwhelmed. Anything that shortens the developmental path to the majors is a bonus, and the White Sox aren’t alone in considering Triple-A baseball more of a circling pattern for fringe types, while Double-A is where more of the star talent does serious work. I do have concerns about Charlotte being a place the White Sox actively avoid because it’s nearly impossible to pitch reliably and respectably there. We’ll see if it cramps the ability to give the Birmingham rotation a place to fine-tune if they don’t stick right away.
