As data and analysis becomes more prevalent in college baseball, the more observers know about college players selected in the Major League Baseball Draft. Thanks to great resources at 6-4-3 Charts and D1Baseball.com, I combed through the Chicago White Sox college draftees' data to identify key metrics that help explain why they were selected, or what these prospects need to work on in the minors.
Hagen Smith
Key metric(s): Whiff rate 47.4% (5th in DI) / 61.7% Z-Contact % (2nd in DI)
Hagen Smith was incredibly difficult for opposing hitters to make any contact against in 2024. On pitches in the strike zone, Smith’s Z-Contact % was only 61.7%; second-lowest in D-I. Teams had a game plan of hunting for Smith’s fastball because his slider is almost unhittable (57.3% whiff rate), but they still struggled against the heater, whiffing at a 42.5% clip.
Nick McLain
Key metric: 54.1% Flyball rate
Despite only playing 71 games over two seasons at Arizona State, Nick McLain displayed some power tendencies that the White Sox could dream on. His 14.1% extra-base hit rate was fueled by a significant flyball rate, especially in 2024, when McLain finished with 54.1% fly balls compared to his 34% groundball rate.
Casey Saucke
Key metric: Career 2.08 K:BB rate
Casey Saucke set a career-high in home runs with 14 in his junior season at Virginia, but he was always chasing his freshman season success. Using a fourth-round pick on Saucke when better college bats were available will be a good test for the White Sox player development staff. There are multiple red flags with Saucke’s profile, but none bigger than his strikeout-to-walk rate of 2.08 (Career: 167 Ks to 80 BBs). How Saucke improves his contact skills will go a long way in determining if he’s a fringe major leaguer or burns out at Double-A.
Sam Antonacci
Key metric: 26.2% line drive rate
After dominating the NJCAA circuit, Sam Antonacci transitioned to Division I baseball at Coastal Carolina in 2024. While the power output is not impressive, Antonacci reached base at a .523 clip, and a big reason is his line drive rate. At a 26.2% clip, I wonder if there’s more doubles power in Antonacci’s profile the White Sox can tap into in the minors? If they can, maybe that gives Antonacci a chance to surprise folks, much like how Zack Remillard stuck around for so long.
Jackson Appel
Key metric: 0.85 Stolen Base Runs (38th in DI)
After transferring from Penn and facing Ivy League pitching, Jackson Appel made the transition to Texas A&M quite nicely. Appel hit .331/.422/.534 with 10 HR in 64 games for the Aggies and is a tough guy to strike out at just an 11.7% rate in 2024. But if Appel is going to have staying power in the minors, he’ll need to impress defensively. While the framing is a concern, Appel did well against potential base stealers, ranking 38th in the country in Stolen Base Runs.
Phil Fox
Key metric: 2.1% walk rate in 2024
To say Pittsburgh closer Phil Fox pounds the strike zone would be an understatement. With a 70.5% strike rate, Fox consistently challenged hitters and posted a shocking low walk total of just three in 23 appearances, spanning 36 2/3 innings.
Belated edition of Mike Shirley Insight: "[Fox] had the flattest fastball in the draft. It's a little bit what we call the 'upshoot fastball,' which is something from a data point, a metric point, a lot of teams are chasing; if you have that flat fastball that hitters have a hard time with. Because your eyes sometimes can't perceive actually what's occurring with the heater."
Aaron Combs
Key metric: Fastball whiff rate: 34% (18th in DI)
Despite a fastball that tops at 94 MPH, Aaron Combs throws all of his pitches out of a weird three-quarter delivery that it’s hard to pick up and has sink. If opposing batters are not whiffing at the fastball, they have a tough time hitting pitches in the air against Combs. In 2024, Combs carried a 52.4% groundball rate, which was a huge improvement from his previous season (29.7% GB rate in 2024).
Shirley insight: This is the opposite of a data insight, but Shirley said he called Tennessee coach Tony Vitello personally to get an endorsement of Combs, and also noted that he would have an opportunity to start at a less loaded program. It's unlikely he's about to throw six innings per outing at Kannapolis, but could be a possibility down the road if Combs hits the ground running.
Jack Young
Key metric: 35.1% K-rate
A transfer from Parkland College, Jack Young saw little time in 2023 before becoming one of Iowa’s primary relievers in 2024. At one point this season, Young had a 14-game streak of not allowing a walk from March 3 vs. Ole Miss, to April 12 vs. Ohio State. What catches my eye, and why the White Sox drafted Young, is the strikeout rate. At a 35% clip, Young will become a reliever to follow to see if his strikeout stuff carries over to the minors.
Cole McConnell
Key metric: Career 2.27 K:BB rate
Just like Casey Sauke, the White Sox are taking a chance on McConnell out of Louisiana Tech. Appearing in 187 games over five seasons, with one cut short due to suspension for violating team rules, McConnell had a career .347/.431/.558 slashline with 31 HR and 179 RBI. When McConnell makes contact, he produces results. But a 21.3% career K-rate at La. Tech is concerning and will bear monitoring for how it translates to the minors.
Blake Shepardson
Key metric(s): Average 95.8 MPH two-seamer / 97.1 MPH four-seamer
After an uneven season at the University of San Francisco, Blake Shepardson put on a show during the MLB Draft League for the West Virginia Black Bears. In five relief appearances, Shepardson pitched 5 1/3 scoreless innings, allowing just two hits and walks apiece versus 11 strikeouts. This is a power arm relief profile, as Shepardson averaged 97 MPH with his four-seamer and almost 96 MPH with his two-seamer. Both fastballs are also paired with a slider, and Shepardson generated a 66.7% whiff rate with that pitch.
Nathan Archer
Key metric: Career 22.9% K-rate
Manning center field for Bowling Green, Archer belted 18 home runs in 2024. Over three seasons spanning 154 games, Archer hit .299/.370/.559, but the strikeout totals are eye-catching. In each season, Archer had at least a 22% K-rate that most scouts attribute to approach, which he’ll need to improve upon professionally to give him staying power.
Pierce George
Key metric: 100+ MPH four-seam fastball
Little is known about Pierce George, a draft-eligible sophomore from Alabama. He pitched some with the Crimson Tide, but last appeared in a game on April 24. Yet it’s a very big arm, as George is currently in the Cape Cod League playing the Chatham Anglers, where he’s appeared in four games pitching 7 2/3 innings with a 5.87 ERA and 11 strikeouts to four walks. In his bullpen sessions, there are reports of George having the ability to hit 100+ MPH with his four-seamer with little control. If and when George signs, he becomes an interesting project for the White Sox player development staff.
Shirley insight: The Sox scouting director said he's seen George hit 103 mph.
Justin Sinibaldi
Key metric: Career 50% groundball rate
Spending four seasons at Rutgers, Justin Sinibaldi moved full-time to the starting rotation this year. In 13 starts, Sinibaldi had a 3.47 ERA, and midseason became the Friday starter for Rutgers. While Sinibaldi doesn’t rack up many strikeouts, he does a good job of inducing grounders with a 50% clip for his college career.
Mason Moore
Key metric: Career 55% groundball rate
Continuing the trend of taking college pitchers who transitioned from the bullpen to the starting rotation in 2024, Mason Moore has made it difficult for opposing hitters to hit fly balls. In 2023, Moore had a 61% groundball rate that helped keep his ERA down to 1.80, and there wasn’t much of a drop-off in 2024 as it was 54.4%. Moore doesn’t have big strikeout stuff, but command is something to keep an eye on. In back-to-back seasons, Moore had a 13% walk rate.
T.J. McCants
Key metric: 27.7% K-rate
After a promising freshman season at Ole Miss in 2021, hitting .300/.369/.433 and earning Freshman All-American honors, McCants struggled in 2022 and 2023, posting below .800 OPS in both seasons. Transferring to Alabama for the 2024 season seeking a fresh start, McCants had his best college season with the Crimson Tide, hitting .306/.374/.583 with 15 home runs. What has stopped McCants from producing even better results is the strikeouts. In 217 college games, McCants had a 27.7% strikeout rate and reached 31.1% in 2022.
Lyle Miller-Green
Key metric: 206 wRC+ in 2024 (3rd in DI)
Russian-born Lyle Miller-Green had one of the best hitting seasons in college baseball in 2024. Trailing only Charlie Condon and Travis Bazzana in wRC+, Miller-Green hit .393/.533/.900 with 30 HR and 93 RBI for Austin Peay. After bouncing around from George Mason to Oklahoma State to Austin Peay over three seasons, it seems having stability being in one place helped Miller-Green focus on his hitting craft. He played right field but was mostly Austin Peay’s DH over the last two seasons.
Shirley insight: "It’s an 81 percent contact [rate] and he hits the ball over 105 mph, 31% of the time."
Liam Paddack
Key metric: 17.3% BB-rate
Another left-handed pitcher with a weird release angle, Paddack is also currently part of the Chatham Anglers roster. In 14 appearances at Gonzaga, Paddack had a 17.3% walk rate spanning 65 innings (77 strikeouts to 56 walks) but is improving on that mark during his Cape Cod season. Like his Cape Cod League teammate Pierce George, if Paddack signs, he’ll be another pitching project.
Nick Pinto
Key metric: 62 college starts
A fifth-year senior as his freshman season in 2020 was cut short due to COVID, Nick Pinto made 62 career starts at UC-Irvine. It’s a number that’s rarely seen in the college ranks, and Pinto had a successful 2024 season. In 16 starts, Pinto had a 3.91 ERA spanning 94 2/3 innings with 99 strikeouts to 23 walks. In back-to-back seasons, Pinto posted sub-6 % walk rates.
