At 30-57, the Miami Marlins are the National League's White Sox, right as they prepare to face the American League version. Given the number of struggling former White Sox they've had to wrestle with this year, they probably should've seen it coming.
At the start of June, the Marlins released Avisaíl García after a disastrous 2½ years, even though that left 1½ years and nearly $25 million on his deal. He'd only been able to play the equivalent of one full season over his Miami tenure to leg injuries, but hit .218/.260/.322 over those scattered 153 games, good for -1.8 bWAR.
A few weeks later, the Marlins designated Tim Anderson for assignment. Anderson fared even worse than García, hitting .214/.237/.226 with just three extra-base hits -- all doubles -- over 65 games. He was on pace to challenge -3 bWAR before Miami pulled the plug, but the one-year, $5 million deal made that easier to absorb.
Jake Burger doesn't appear to be in danger of losing his job, but the mildest of hedges is required, because it's not going well. He's hitting just .217/.254/.352 over 65 games, struggling to get on track ever since an intercostal strain pushed him to the injured list in the middle of April.
The start of July briefly provided some optimism. Burger went 2-for-4 with a homer against the Red Sox on Tuesday, which was the same day the Marlins gave away co-branded Burger King crowns. If he's ever grown tired of the jokes and puns, he remains a pro at hiding it.
“I thought it was really funny that everybody was wearing Burger King crowns, and it's just fitting that I hit one tonight,” Burger said. “I think [on] National Burger Day I'm hitting pretty well, too. Any time anything with hamburgers [is] involved, I feel like I always have a chance for a good night.”
Two days later, Burger traded in the paper crown for the platinum sombrero, striking out in all five plate appearances to tie a team record.
The abrupt swings in production are a microcosm of Burger's fortunes since the White Sox traded him to Miami for Jake Eder. Burger hit .303/.355/.505 over the last 53 games and finished the 2023 season with 34 homers, whereas Eder joined the Sox and struggled to throw strikes, so the early returns for a controversially conducted swap turned out to be the final straw for the Kenny Williams Era.
As we approach its anniversary, the trade has lost much of its gravity. Eder is still a work in progress, but at least he's conquered his largest mechanical issues and can focus his attention on refinements, rather than basic effectiveness. While he's a ways away from the majors, he now resembles a pitcher who was worth Burger.
It also helps that Burger has met him in the middle. His collapsed production doesn't seem to signal abrupt aging, but the early-season injury throwing his mechanics out of whack.
It has been a combination of things for Burger. He's coming off a rotational injury, so he made mechanical tweaks. On top of that, Burger was letting his head go forward and not holding his backside longer. When Burger does that, he must decide earlier and swing at more pitches out of the zone.
He's still hitting the ball hard. It's just going into the ground, resulting in a career-high 52 percent ground-ball rate. These issues sound fixable, but they highlight how Burger's profile, with its extreme aggression and below-average defense, can't really afford to take on a new flaw.
The White Sox's rebuilds capsized because they had too many players who were some combination of right-handed, injury-prone, positionally challenged and overaggressive. The Marlins might not have been aware that they courted the same fate by having such former Sox comprising a third of their lineup, because three different decision-makers are credited with the acquisitions (Derek Jeter for García, Kim Ng for Burger, Peter Bendix for Anderson). However it happened, it's definitely happening, as FanGraphs' Davy Andrews pointed out in writing about the Marlins' literal chase of history.
They are united in a common cause, and they have been wildly successful no matter how you dice the numbers. They lead the league in chase rate against both righties and lefties, at home and away, with the bases empty and with runners in scoring position. They chase the most against sinkers, cutters, changeups, splitters, sliders, and curveballs. Only 15 teams have even seen a knuckleball this season, but the Marlins lead them in chase rate too. If you’d prefer to break things down by Statcast’s attack zones, they swing the most against pitches in the shadow zone, the chase zone, and the waste zone. The only location where they’re not in first place? The heart of the plate.
It's a shame that somebody as delightful as Burger is caught in the spiral, but it probably makes him a great change of scenery candidate once again. Everybody should probably be more aware that the effects of such a deal are limited when the scenery changes back. Consider this a warning for current Marlins manager (and rumored potential future White Sox manager) Skip Schumaker, while we're at it.
