White Sox 2024 MLB Draft Day 3 Recap: Power arms, then power bats

True to form, the White Sox's third day of picks in the 2024 MLB draft offered more intrigue on a round-to-round basis than Day 2, due to the ability to offer signing bonuses up to $150,000 before dipping into the team's bonus pool.

Over the course of the final 10 rounds, the White Sox picked up a couple of high-octane arms with control problems, another mid-major player of the year, a two-way player with a fascinating backstory, and a prep slugger who isn't likely to sign unless negotiations break down elsewhere.

11th round (319th overall): Blake Shepardson, RHP, San Francisco

Shepardson, a 6-foot-5-inch, 220-pound righty, throws hard, but could use a better idea of where it's going. He throws two high-90s fastballs with a high-80s slider, but he walked 29 batters and plunked 13 batters over 30 innings this past season. He topped out at three innings and 56 appearance in bulk duty.

Hey gang, it's your Patreon-supported Sox Machine beat writer here. I'm just going to pepper in some takeaways from White Sox scouting director Mike Shirley's Zoom session into these capsules.

Shirley insight: The Sox scouting director had a hard time picking his favorite sleeper pick, but ultimately settled on Shepardson, whom he personally saw hit triple-digits in the MLB Draft League. They view him as a reliever, but Shirley defended his ability to throw strikes long-term, suggesting his previous stops didn't allow him to develop command with his whole arsenal.

"I saw the athlete, a quality delivery and a kind of arm speed you just don’t run into every day. On top, I saw a slider he really commanded. And it’s just about usage. Sometimes we talk about no track record. Once again, these college coaches, they have a different perspective because their job is on the line. It’s not like professional baseball sometimes in terms of how they develop players and how we develop players."

12th round (349th): Nathan Archer, OF, Bowling Green

Archer, the reigning MAC Player of the Year, hit .300/.362/.59 with 14 doubles, three triples and 18 homers in 53 games with the Falcons. He became Bowling Green's first draft pick since 2015 due to the combination of strong center field defense and an emerging bat, although he'll have to tighten up his strike zone. Two years ago, the White Sox used this pick on the Colonial Athletic Association Player of the Year, and Brooks Baldwin has fared pretty well as a pro.

Shirley insight: The Sox view Archer as a 70-grade runner, and believe a center field projection will give his bat/approach ample runway to develop.

13th round (379th): Pierce George, RHP, Alabama

Ranks: BA: 213

Take what you see about Shepardson above, make everything a little bit bigger, and you get George. He's an inch taller, throws harder (sitting 97-99 mph, topping out at 102), pitched at a more prominent program, and walked a lot of guys (11 over 11⅓ innings) as a draft-eligible sophomore, which is why he hasn't seen that much action. The control improved a little bit on the Cape, which maybe provides some evidence that he can learn how to harness his stuff.

Shirley insight: If you're grouping George and Shepardson together as a pair of high-velocity relief prospects, you might be the White Sox scouting director (Mike man, go to bed, get some rest; you've had a long three days). Shirley said crosschecker Rob Cummings was a huge George advocate, and that they've clocked his fastball as high as 103 mph. That should be good for 10 years from now when that's the league average fastball velocity (Joking!...I think).

14th round (409th): Justin Sinibaldi, LHP, Rutgers

Sinibaldi made the jump to the Scarlet Knights rotation after spending the previous year as a swingman and posted a 3.47 ERA over 83 innings. He's a sinker-slider lefty who gives this draft class some starting experience.

Shirley insight: The Sox will develop Sinibaldi as a starter. I hope you noticed that he's left-handed.

"I’ve had many people really share their knowledge with me who held, executives in front of me, and they always say you should take as many left-handers as you can take in a draft. There’s quite a few in there. And if you hit on left-handers, they get a little bit more runway, they can get away with a little bit more."

15th round (439): Mason Moore, RHP, Kentucky

Same can be said for Mason Moore, except he struggled for most of the season, going from the Wildcats bullpen to Sunday starter. He had a 5.05 ERA with 54 walks and 13 HBPs over 92⅔ innings. He has a history of big-time postseason performances, most recently six shutout innings against Indiana State when he was under the weather.

Shirley insight: Moore and Sinibaldi were grouped together by Shirley as starters, with particular emphasis on the former's experience navigating SEC lineups.

"You do get a concept for navigating tough lineups. Those lineups are difficult. Moore, he’s had some success. We were interested in him last year and he wanted to go back to school. That Kentucky team was really successful this year."

16th round (469th): T.J. McCants, OF, Alabama

If you're wondering where the White Sox's infatuation with Ole Miss went, McCants transferred to Alabama for his senior season after three seasons in Oxford, and his game made a jump. He opened the season with a 22-game hitting streak and finished the year hitting .306/.374/.583 with 16 doubles, two triples, 15 homers and 14 steals in 15 attempts while manning center field every day for the Crimson Tide.

Shirley insight: They're turning McCants into a utility guy, based at least partially on player development director Paul Janish seeing him play the infield earlier in his college career.

"With his athleticism being so good, why can't you tap back into him being able to spread his talent across the field defensively as a way to maybe tap into a different sector for him. Sometimes it's good for the player when he's had to accomplish multiple things on the field. You never know how that unlocks their overall performance."

17th round (499th): Lyle Miller-Green, TWP, Austin Peay

Ranks: BA: 450

Miller-Green stands 6'5" and 237 pounds and Austin Peay is his fifth school in five years. He hit .393/.533/.900 with 30 homers in 56 games for the Governors while throwing 50⅓ innings in the rotation (he posted an 8.23 ERA, but still), so he'd already be the most fascinating player selected by the White Sox before you get to the part about him being born in Siberia with the name Oleg Sergevich Kornev.

Shirley insight: How serious are they about this two-way player listing?

"It’s an 81 percent contact [rate] and he hits the ball over 105 mph, 31 percent of the time. It is a substantial data piece that’s real. He’s really good at heaters over 93 mph, so if you do a dive deeper into the metrics, you start to realize the power is as good as anybody in the draft. The reason it was listed as two-way, if you looked at the pitch metrics, Brian Bannister liked some of the things he does off the mound too."

Well, OK then.

18th round (529th): Liam Paddack, LHP, Gonzaga

Paddack went from the community college ranks to the West Coast Conference in 2024, where control problems did him in. He walked 56 batters and plunked another 17 over 65 innings. he struck out 77 batters, and that characteristic followed him to the Cape, where he recorded 22 strikeouts against seven walks over 13 innings for Chatham. His self-taught curveball is his biggest weapon.

19th round (559): Nick Pinto, LHP, UC Irvine

Not to be confused with the quintessential 2000s Minnesota Twin, Pinto is a 6-foot lefty who features the quintessential left-handed pitchability mix (high-80s fastball, high-70s curve, changeup). He struck out 99 batters against just 23 walks over 94⅓ innings in his graduate season for the Anteaters, though he also gave up 105 hits.

20th round (589th): Myles Bailey, 1B, Lincoln HS (Fla.)

Ranks: BA: 190 | MLB: 133 | ESPN: 249

Last but not least, the White Sox did have one more hulking prep pick in mind before the close of the draft. Bailey is a 6-foot-4-inch, 235-pound power-hitting first baseman who's athletic enough to be auditioned in an outfield corner, and draws comparison to Rays prospectd Xavier Isaac for background, size and profile. He's ticketed for Florida state, and also he's 19 years old, which gives him a less forgiving developmental runway if he goes pro immediately, so this college commitment could be stickier than others unless another prep pick's price tag is too high.

Shirley insight: If the White Sox sign Bailey, something has gone wrong. No snark! That's literally why he was drafted.

"If something falls apart, you need insurance. If something goes awry, we have to make sure we back that up. Plus we like it, we had a good runway trying to maybe secure him leading up into the draft, so he was the best piece of the puzzle for us on an insurance pick."

It's not immediately clear what would drive the concern, as second-round pick Caleb Bonemer made it clear during his media availability that he intends to sign, and third-round pick Blake Larson sounded like someone comfortably drifting toward an over-slot agreement while speaking to his local paper, the Des Moines Register. It is a 20th round pick, so it's not like they tilted a substantial portion of their draft toward this insurance. But in sum, Shirley sounded like someone who had gone through a hard three days of negotiations, airing his frustration with the impact of NIL money on the draft multiple times.

"The amount of revenue that’s in that side of the business is calling the ball. I was just in negotiations at the end of the draft on a player and I finally had to ask the advisor, ‘What’s he getting to go back to school?’ I’m always shocked by the dollar figures being shared into that world that’s bumping into our draft a little bit. It’s something we have to pay attention to. We should be the one calling the ball. This is Major League Baseball. We should be the one leading the charge here and we have to be careful to make sure we are setting the tone we need."

Asked how this would affect future drafts, he continued.

"The NCAA really has to think about what they're doing. I think it's turning into something. I was in a conversation with a player today trying to get him to step into professional baseball and they have reference points of financial--sometimes financial security because they're being given money to go to school that's real money, so there's some security for them. I worry that the end game should be to be a major league player. Sometimes people don't understand how you have to get into the system. You have to get into the system and get your career moving. You have to figure out how to be a professional. And they just think they can keep going back to school because the money's there. That's not always accurate. Your runway and your career, you need to make sure you secure it when you can. So it's a little frustrating for me from that perspective that guys are going about their business like that."

As someone dealing with the bleeding edge of a rapidly changing market, I don't doubt that Shirley heard some truly wacky asks from draft advisors over the past three days. And his point about whether players are making the decisions that will generate the maximum professional outcomes for themselves is well-taken. As a longtime scout, that should be his central viewpoint.

But since professional baseball is almost mythologized for how much of a grind it is, how long the odds are for making the majors, how long it takes to secure life-changing money after reaching the majors, it seems inevitable that there would be ample crop of players who would view college baseball as a secure option now that there's more real money involved. As minor league baseball opportunities continue to shrink, and facilities and pay continue (hopefully) to improve, maybe the calculus alters. Right now, it feels like a somewhat inevitable shift, even as it makes for a frustrating draft day.

One last Mike Shirley zoom session for the road

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