PREAMBLE
Fresh off his appointment as the General Manager of the White Sox, after a season in which the team lost 101 games, Chris Getz committed the team to a complete teardown and rebuild. He was right to do it. The organization was rotten, the team on the field hopeless.
So, 2024 would be a year in which the White Sox would not expect to be competitive. The goal was to allow the young players in the system to develop, and to acquire more prospects. As Getz later admitted, he would not have been surprised to lose 100, 105, or even 110 games. Tying the record of 121 losses was unexpected, but neither did he try to avoid it by not trading away players who might have helped the team win a few more games. Losing was the bitter medicine the team needed to take for the sake of its future health. Well, that was the idea, anyway.
So what should the goal be for 2025? Not to abandon the rebuild. The emphasis should still be on acquiring and developing young talent. On the other hand, there needs to be some showing of progress. No one, from Jerry on down, can stand to see them lose 121 games again. The goal should be to land the plane at 100 losses, which will require a 51.2% increase in the total number of wins, while continuing to develop and acquire young players. In sum: The Sox will suck again. But this plan will get them to be a conventionally bad team, not a historically bad one, and will give us hope for better days in later years.
MANAGER
Does the manager really matter? The Cubs poached Craig Counsell from the Brewers, and improved by exactly zero games. On the other hand, the Brewers, managed by a guy no one had heard of before, improved by one game. Maybe the players are what matter.
Still, this seems like an important decision. We saw what can happen when a well regarded coach with no manager experience is given the top job. I really don't want to take the risk of another Pedro Grifol Experience. But I also don't want Tony LaRussa's boy, Skip Schumaker. The new guy's primary loyalty needs to be to Chris Getz.
I'd go with Fredi Gonzalez. He's been a successful manager. He made some mistakes, I assume, and I also assume that he's learned from them. And he's also spent the last four years as the bench coach of the Orioles, a team that has succeeded in developing its young prospects. Maybe some magic rubbed off.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Write “tender,” “non-tender” or “rework/extend” after each player and their projected 2025 salaries. Feel free to offer explanation afterward if necessary.
- Andrew Vaughn: $6.4M -- Tender. Vaughn is a league-average bat, and a below average defensive first baseman. I don't think he will be a member of the next White Sox playoff team. But the Sox have bigger problems, and it's not like they have an obvious replacement in their system. League average is way above average for this team, and they need to keep him at least one more year.
- NIcky Lopez: $5.1M -- Non-tender. Nicky was meant to be a one year stopgap until one of the young Sox players was ready to take over at second. He filled that role. Thanks, Nicky, and good luck at your next stop.
- Garrett Crochet: $2.9M -- Tender and trade.
- Gavin Sheets: $2.6M -- Non-tender.
- Enyel De Los Santos: $1.7M -- Non-tender.
- Jimmy Lambert: $1.2M -- Non-tender.
- Justin Anderson: $1.1M -- Tender.
- Steven Wilson: $1M -- Tender.
- Matt Foster: $900K -- Non-tender.
CLUB OPTIONS
Write “pick up” or “decline” or “rework” after the option.
- Yoán Moncada: $25M ($5M buyout) -- Decline. Can I stop to say that 2019 Yoan Moncada was one of the most fun players I have seen in a Sox uniform? What might have been if he hadn't gotten Covid in 2020 don't bear thinking on. It wouldn't surprise me if he had a good season in 2025, but it will have to be somewhere else.
- Max Stassi: $7M ($500K buyout) -- Decline. Max, we never knew you.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, extend qualifying offer, or let go?
• Michael Soroka (Made $3M in 2023) -- Try to retain for the bullpen. Spotrac has his market value at $2 million, but I'll offer him one year at $3 million, because he showed much better value once he was moved to the pen.
• Mike Clevinger ($3M) -- Fire into the sun.
• Chris Flexen ($1.75) -- Try to retain. The strength of the Sox now, to the extent that they have one, is their young starters. Still, they may not have five young guys ready to start in 2025 -- they need some depth. Flexen gave the Sox 160 innings of below average, but not horrible, pitching. I'll offer a year with $3 million guaranteed, with incentives.
FREE AGENTS
List three free-agent targets you’d pursue during the offseason, with a reasonable contract.
This is the part you are really going to hate. We aren't signing any big name free agents. Not because we are cheap, but because the ones you want will have plenty of offers, and won't need to join a 121 loss, rebuilding team to get paid. And because we aren't going to pay huge free agent money to players in years when we don't expect to win, even if we were to add them. Once we get to .500, we can think about adding an expensive free agent or two.
On the other hand, we really need to do something about the bullpen. Nothing is more dispiriting to a young team, or its fans, than repeatedly blowing leads. The Sox converted 21 of 58 save opportunities last year, or 36%. That's putrid. The next worse were the Marlins, at 55%. If the Sox could have converted at that rate, they would have won 11 more games. Cleveland converted 76%. Do the math yourself. So it's going to be Rick Hahn redux.
- Jeff Hoffman, 3 years, $31.5 million -- Dave Dombrowski has said that the Phillies probably won't resign both Hoffman and Carlos Estevez. That means Hoffman should be cut loose. Jim Bowden in the Athletic projects him at 3 years, $27 million. I'm projecting an overpay to get him here.
- Clay Holmes, 2 years, $20.5 million. Holmes lost his closer role to Luke Weaver. Bowden has him pegged at 2 years, $18.5 million. Again, I'm overpaying.
- Paul DeJong, 1 year, $4.5 million. Hear me out on this. DeJong was signed to be a one year stopgap until Colson Montgomery was ready in in 2025. Well, Colson Montgomery still isn't ready, and neither are any of the other young players who the Sox tried at shortstop after he was traded.They need another one year stopgap. DeJong outhit his $1.75 million contract last year, even though his fielding was not up to par. Sportrac has his market value at $4.7 million. I think $4.5 million will get it done, but I'd go to $5.25 million or so.
TRADES
Propose trades that you think sound reasonable for both sides, and the rationale behind them.
OK, you're really going to hate this one, too. Garrett Crochett is the team's best payer, but I can see a path to a competitive starting rotation by 2027, the first year in which we can reasonably hope the Sox will be competitive, without him. I can't see a competitive lineup of position players, however, without the hitters he could bring back in a trade. On the other hand, the Sox can't trade him without bringing back a player who could help them avoid another 121 loss season in 2025. So, this trade immediately fills the deep pit of despair in right field, and brings back a top prospect who has a realistic chance of replacing Luis Robert in center in a couple of years, which the White Sox don't have now.
Garrett Crochet to the Red Sox for Wilyer Abreu and Miguel Bleis -- The Red Sox have a surplus of good young outfielders, but desperately need starting pitching. Abreu is the odd man out. He's 25 years old, plays good defense in right, and is under team control through 2029. Last year, he put up 3.5 bWAR and a 114 OPS+ in 447 PA. Bleis is a 20 year-old center field prospect with speed and power potential. MLB.com had him at No. 8 on its list of 2024 Red Sox prospects. For what it's worth, MLB Trade Values calls this almost exactly even -- Crochet is valued at 42.2, Abreu at 29.1, and Bleis at 13.3.
SUMMARY
C Edgar Quero -- $800K
1B Andrew Vaughn -- $6.4M
2B Lenyn Sosa -- $800K
SS Paul DeJong -- $4.5M
3B Bryan Ramos -- $800K
LF Miguel Vargas -- $800K
CF Luis Robert, Jr. -- $15M
RF Wilyer Abreu -- $800K
DH Andrew Benintendi -- $16.5M
C2 Korey Lee -- $800K
INF Brooks Baldwin -- $800K
OF4 Dominic Fletcher -- $800K
OF5 Zach DeLoach -- $800K
SP Drew Thorpe -- $800K
SP Jonathan Cannon -- $800K
SP Davis Martin -- $800K
SP Sean Burke -- $800K
SP Chris Flexen -- $3M
RP Jeff Hoffman -- $10.5M
RP Clay Holmes -- $10.25M
RP Michael Soroka -- $3M
RP Justin Anderson -- $1.1M
RP Steven Wilson -- $1M
RP Jared Shuster -- $800K
RP Fraser Ellard -- $800K
RP Gus Varland -- $800K
These 26 players add up to $84.05 million. Add $5.5 million in buy-outs, and $4.0 million in retained and deferred salaries, and the total is $93.55 million. That's about where I expect the actual payroll to land.
Could this team win 62 games? Obviously, a lot depends on the performance of a lot of young players. They could all be great, or they could all stink. Realistically, it's going to be somewhere in the middle, but there's a lot of room for variance. Also, it would be really helpful if 2023 Luis Robert shows up (I'm hopeful), as well as second half 2024 Andrew Benintendi (I'm skeptical). But the good news is that there is more credible pitching behind the group on this year's roster in the minors. The path back to respectability is going to require developing that young pitching, and then trading pitching for more hitting. If the Sox can do that, 2026 should be better, and 2027 better still.
