PREAMBLE
In 1818, the English poet Percy Bysse Shelley hopped into his time machine, saw the 2024 White Sox season, and returned to write his finest work, Ozymandias. The poem ends with this stanza, no doubt crafted in the middle of the third losing streak of more than ten games.
"My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"
No thing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.
The Sox were a colossal wreck, but some things of value remain, leaving the 2025 Sox with fairly easily obtainable organizational goals: develop whatever young talent is worthy of the description, lure fans back with more than PR written platitudes, and avoid breaking their own record for futility.
MANAGER
And it starts with the managerial selection. We need a new voice, one unencumbered by thoughts of "choosing the best athlete in the draft" or "let's force our infielders to play outfield." George Lombard played for the Dodgers, where he also served as bench coach, worked with the Red Sox and Braves, and, most importantly, has been the bench coach for our rival Detroit Tigers. Getting a guy in the dugout with a range of experience with winning teams who can also feed us intel on the Tigers? I call that a win.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Andrew Vaughn: $6.4M - Back and forth on this one, but I land on non-tender. A defensive liabilty who struggles to reach 18 home runs at a premium power position, Vaughn may yet warrant his draft selection. It just can't be here.
- Nicky Lopez: $5.1M - non tender, but bring back at half.
- Garrett Crochet: $2.9M - tender, but deal.
- Gavin Sheets: $2.6M - non-tender. There's simply no place on this squad for a position-less player who managed the same amount of home runs in 2024 as he did in 100 fewer 2023 ABs.
- Enyel De Los Santos: $1.7M - Non-tender.
- Jimmy Lambert: $1.2M - can't stay healthy. Non-tender.
- Justin Anderson: $1.1M - Tender.
- Steven Wilson: $1M - Tender.
- Matt Foster: $900K - Non-Tender.
CLUB OPTIONS
- Yoán Moncada: $25M ($5M buyout) Decline. Sigh. What could have been.
- Max Stassi: $7M ($500K buyout) Decline.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Michael Soroka (Made $3M in 2023) - Let go. We're not paying anywhere near this much for a reliever.
- Mike Clevinger ($3M) - don't just let go, but keep shoving until he's across state lines.
- Chris Flexen ($1.75) - Try to retain. You can never have enough pitching depth.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: Teoscar Hernandez (3 years, $70 million). Last year, TH was my main get and he is again this year. He provides much needed pop that might lure some fans back to the park, while also helping us to avoid total ignominy. The deal is a bit below market value, but I think he'd take it for the security.
No. 2: Josh Bell (1 year, $5 million). Is it sexy? No. Does he provide the same pop more or less as Vaughn? Yes. But we can't trot out the same offense and hope for better things. At the very least, he'll be on base more than the glacially slow Vaughn and that's a good thing.
No. 3: Gary Sanchez (1 year, $3.5). Initially, I pegged this spot for a back-end starter, but I think we need to not rush Edgar Quero (see goal #1: young star development.) Sanchez had a bit of pop, managed a (barely) positve WAR, and has experience on actual winning teams. Best case scenario is he plays well enough to be dealt around the time Quero is ready to run. Worst case is last year. It won't be last year.
TRADES
No. 1: Trade Garrett Crochet (42.2 per Baseball Trade Values) to Baltimore for Heston Kjerstad, Dylan Beavers, and Jacob Webb (combined 32.2.) Let’s start by acknowledging that a smart team would lock up their lefty ace. Now let's sigh wistfully at the good fortune of fans of such teams because it's more likely that Illinois will pay every penny for a new park than Jerry, god forbid, signs a homegrown pitcher to a deal that rewards their talent. So let's make the best of it. Kjerstad immediately slides into one of the corners becoming the answer we've long sought for either. Beavers becomes our center fielder of the future. And Webb is another affordable bullpen arm brought in to help us avoid being the first and second worst teams in modern history. It's a slight underpay, but I don't think Baltimore gives up any more than this. And now is the time to strike. The O's just got first-round bounced, they'll need a controllable ace, and they're now chasing the Yankees in the middle of a serious contention window. They didn't pay the price in the summer and it bit them. I say they take their second bite of the apple when it's offered this time around.
No. 2: Luis Robert, Jr. (6.6) to Los Angeles Dodgers for James Outman (8.9). This winds up happening for three main reasons. First, on a horrifically bad 2024 Sox team, LRJ was...horrifically bad. The chase rate, the strike-outs, the power decline, it was miserable to watch and he seemed miserable. I think he wants out and where better to go than where Michael Kopech resuscitated his career. The Dodgers love stars and will want to continue to dominate during the Shohei era. I'm betting LA thinks they can fix LRJ (and they will.) Second, we need to shed the contract. For a team as bad as the 2025 Sox, it makes no sense to pay even the affordable $15 million for LRJ. Third, Outman has shown real flashes and might benefit from a change of scenery. If you said this is a paltry return for LRJ, I agree, but I also don't want to risk another injury (highly likely) that further diminishes his trade value. And in a bad year, if I can get the 2023 Outman (.248, 23 homers, 70 RBIs - all of which would've led us last tear) I'll take it.
SUMMARY
Rotation:
Drew Thorpe ($800K)
Jonathan Cannon ($800K)
Sean Burke ($800K)
Davis Martin ($800K)
Chris Flexen ($1.75M)
Bullpen:
Gus Varland ($800K)
Fraser Ellard ($800K)
Prelander Berroa ($800K)
Steven Wilson ($1M)
Justin Anderson ($1M)
Jacob Webb ($1.9)
Lineup:
DH Andrew Benintendi ($17.1M)
RF Heston Kjerstad ($800K)
LF Teoscar Hernandez ($23.3M)
1B Josh Bell ($5M)
3B Miguel Vargas ($800K)
2B Lenyn Sosa ($800K)
CF James Outman ($800K)
C Gary Sanchez ($3.5M)
SS Nicky Lopez ($2.5M)
Bench:
C Korey Lee ($800K)
SS/2B/3B Brooks Baldwin ($800K)
RF/LF/1B/DH Dominic Fletcher ($800K)
Utility Jacob Amaya ($800K)
Total: $57.8 million (position players) plus $11.25 million (pitchers.)
This team is...not good. The starting pitching is dependent on big leaps forward from all the young guys and no regression from Flexen. The pen is better which is why I'm banking on more wins than in 2024. The offense should be better than last year's because any offense would be. The bench is ragged. That's a whole lot of bad.
But this team allows us to let Colson Montgomery, Edgar Quero, and Bryan Ramos continue to develop and virtually guarantees a top five pick in 2026. By keeping the payroll below $70 million, it also allows Getz to potentially play in the free market in the 2026 offseason when Vlad Guerrero, Jr., Josh Naylor, and Louis Arraez are slated to hit.
They said they're not counting on free agents to right the ship and this OPP reflects that reality. Look on my Works, ye Sox fans, and despair. But don't be surprised by 50-55 wins.
