PREAMBLE
The 2025 Chicago White Sox are in a similar place to the 2022 Chicago Blackhawks. If you're not much of a hockey fan, here's a quick summary:
- Errors of the past regime have led to a depleted prospect pool
- Prospects that they've acquired through the draft and trades to replenish the pool are years away
- The players that are up and have years of control are yet to establish they are key pieces for future contention windows
How the Blackhawks addressed those issues over the last two off-season's, outside of winning the lottery and acquiring Connor Bedard, is the strategy that will be employed in this plan. You will see a lot of older veterans simply looking for a job, with hopes of playing time and a one way ticket to a playoff contender come July. You'll also see some overpays, as that's the only way you're convincing most of these guys to join this organization. One key thing the Blackhawks have done that the White Sox will be doing here, is blocking playing time for a good chunk of their prospects, but not to the point that they can't win the job themselves. A Colson Montgomery level prospect, Frank Nazar, is currently in the NHL's version of AAA. He's blocked by the likes of Ryan Donato, Andreas Anthanasiou and others. Nobody that the Blackhawks would mind moving or scratching if Nazar shows he has nothing left to prove at that level.
MANAGER
Sticking with Grady Sizemore. There are a couple of reasons why. First, it is hard to imagine the White Sox job is appealing enough to acquire anyone that immediately makes a meaningful difference. Venable, Ellis, Lombard, etc. would be just as much of an unknown in the managers role as Sizemore. Second, it sends a message that Sizemore is going to guide the team through the new few years of the rebuild and gives the front office an opportunity to reassess when the time comes where they believe they can compete for the postseason. If they still believe in Sizemore, great. If they don't, they can spin it in a way similar to when the relieved Ricky Renteria of his job. In that case, it will be about executing that plan without interference from the top.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Andrew Vaughn: $6.4M - Non-Tender. A back and forth battle and there is justification to both scenarios, but ultimately decided this team is moving on.
- Nicky Lopez: $5.1M - Tender. It's going to be hard to convince someone of his defensive caliber to come to the White Sox for a potential bench role if a prospect forces his way up, even for $5 million. The argument for this being too rich for the Sox blood is valid, but we are keeping Lopez in this plan.
- Garrett Crochet: $2.9M - Tender
- Gavin Sheets: $2.6M - Non-Tender
- Enyel De Los Santos: $1.7M - Non-Tender
- Jimmy Lambert: $1.2M - Non-Tender
- Justin Anderson: $1.1M - Tender
- Steven Wilson: $1M - Tender
- Matt Foster: $900K - Non-Tender
CLUB OPTIONS
- Yoán Moncada: $25M ($5M buyout) - Rework. (1 year, $5 million) - When you look at the third base market, it is bleak. And if you believe Vargas and Ramos are not ready for the job, this position will need addressed. The end of Moncada's season may have burned the bridge, but if he's truly (his words) "in his prime" this is the year to prove he still has a major league future. A guy like Gio Urshela would have a higher floor, but for a comparable price, Moncada's ceiling is worth another risk. For one year and $10 million total including the buyout, they've made worse gambles. Montgomery, Ramos and Vargas will all begin the year in AAA as the organization figures out the positions for these three and their potential major league contributions down the road.
- Max Stassi: $7M ($500K buyout) - Decline, although we will extend an MILB offer with an invite to camp, if healthy. Another invite we would extend is Kolten Wong, who also didn't play in the majors last year, to give Baldwin more of a competition at second base.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Michael Soroka (Made $3M in 2023) - Retain (1 year, $3.5 million) - Impressive numbers out of the bullpen. If nothing else, a decent long relief option.
- Mike Clevinger ($3M) - Let go
- Chris Flexen ($1.75) - Let go - There is justification for retaining Flexen, but there are other intriguing free agency options.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: Paul Goldschmidt (1 year, $13 million) - Goldschmidt's impressive Cardinals tenure ended with the worst season of his career. However, that can be attributed to a dreadful start. His second half numbers were closer to the norm, and he's an upgrade defensively to provide some stability at the position.
No. 2: Michael Conforto (1 year, $10 million + $12 million player option for 2026 or $2 million buyout) - A popular target a few years ago, he will be splitting time between LF and DH with Andrew Benintendi. Neither are particularly good in the outfield and both could use time off their feet due to prior injury concerns. An attempt to get the most out of both players.
No. 3 and No. 4: Tommy Pham (1 year, $4 million) and Jason Heyward (1 year, $4 million) - Looping these two together, as this will be your right field platoon to start the season. Both can cover center if needed and the one who is on the bench that day can be a late substitution in LF to replace the subpar defense at that position. Dominic Fletcher needs to prove he can hit at a respectable level before he can be rewarded a starting outfield spot and rotting on the bench won't help that development. He will be starting the year in Charlotte.
No. 5: Matthew Boyd (1 year, $7.5 million with mutual option for $10.5 million in 2026 or a $1 million buyout) - Boyd looked impressive in his limited action coming off of Tommy John, especially in the postseason. If the Sox can get a similar statistical output out of him, this becomes an enticing trade piece at the deadline while giving the younger or more inexperienced starters more time to develop in the minors to begin the season.
No. 6: James McCann (1 year, $3.5 million) - Remaining hopeful the memories of his impressive Sox tenure aren't tarnished, but today's version of James McCann fills a hole that needs addressed.
TRADES
1. Trade P Jared Kelley to the Baltimore Orioles for P Jacob Webb - Reliever for reliever in this move. The Orioles are heading into a crucial offseason to address needs to put them into World Series contention. As another budget conscious team, they'll look to shed salaries where they can. Webb is an above average reliever sporting a career ERA below 3.00 that does not give up a lot of hard contact. He has two years of control left and will be making $1.94 million this season. With the closer role wide open, he could insert himself in that conversation for the Sox. For the O's, they acquire a once highly touted prospect that they can dig their hands into and see if they can be the ones to bring the talent to the surface.
2. Trade P Nick Nastrini to the St. Louis Cardinals for OF Won-Bin Cho - The Cardinals are in need of cost controlled starting pitching, as they have explicitly said they will be cutting payroll. With an aged rotation and their top two pitching prospects still a year away, this is a gamble worth taking.
Nastrini showed flashes and was good at avoiding hard contact, but the command is still a concern. The White Sox will be getting the Cardinals 25th ranked prospect who spent last year in High A. He's played CF, but they've moved him to RF on a more permanent basis. He is a former pitcher with a big arm and has stolen 45 bases over the last two seasons. The batting numbers weren't impressive (.227/.307/.305) but there is a high ceiling here. From his prospect page on MLB.com:
"Don’t be overly alarmed by Cho’s slugging percentage just yet. The left-handed slugger topped out with an 111.1 mph exit velocity – equal to the 2023 max EV of Adley Rutschman, Mac Muncy and Eugenio Suárez – and considering the 6-foot-1 outfielder is barely in his 20s, there could be more in the tank as he matures. Getting to that raw pop might take a slight change in mechanics and approach as Cho too often showed a willingness to spray the ball around, leading to a ground-ball rate of 50 percent. With a 14.2 percent walk rate, he also figured to be fairly selective, aiding the belief that he’ll be an average overall bat at each stop up the ladder."
SUMMARY
Moncada 3B ($5M)
Robert Jr. CF ($15M)
Benintendi LF ($17.1M)
Goldschmidt 1B ($13M)
Conforto DH ($10M)
Pham RF ($4M)
Baldwin 2B ($800k)
McCann C ($3.5M)
Lopez SS ($5.1M)
Bench: Lee C ($800k), Sosa INF ($800k), Amaya INF ($800k), Heyward OF ($4M)
Crochet ($2.9M)
Martin ($800k)
Cannon ($800k)
Boyd ($7.5M)
Thorpe (Although this should be a healthy competition with Burke, others) ($800k)
Bullpen: McGough (L, $800k), Ellard (L, $800k), Anderson (R, $1.1M), Wilson ($1M), Varland (R, $800k), Berroa (R, $800k) Soroka (R, $3.5M), Webb (R, $1.94M)
Buyout: Moncada ($5M)
Retained: Brebbia ($1M)
Deferred: Hendriks ($1.5M), Abreu ($1M)
Total Payroll = $111,940,000
With the state of the organization, the goal here was to simply put a better baseball team on the field for the fans, while not mortgaging any future assets. Keeping Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert Jr. on the team is to buy a little more time. To see if there is a positive outlook for the team going forward after the 2025 season that is lacking now and whether those two players could have an impact on that outlook through their current contracts or possibly beyond. It's tough to see Crochet's value dipping much a year from now compared to today and Robert Jr.'s certainly can only improve or stay stagnate.
