After signing former Minnesota Twins right fielder Max Kepler to a one-year contract, Philadelphia Phillies President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski shared optimism that Kepler can play every day. Since the Super Bouncy Ball year in 2019, Kepler has only posted two seasons with an RC+ greater than 100 (2020 and 2023). After hitting 24 homers with an .816 OPS in 2023, Kepler regressed last year, dealing with a knee issue that limited him to just 105 games and led to a decline in several offensive metrics. The signing is certainly a risk for the reigning NL East champion Phillies, who are trying to keep pace with the heavy-spending New York Mets this offseason.
Then Dombrowski shared his projected outfield, which includes Kepler in left field, Brandon Marsh in center field, and Nicholas Castellanos in right field. The first thought that entered my mind was, "The Phillies could use Luis Robert Jr."
According to Baseball Savant, Castellanos was the worst right fielder in Major League Baseball, with a Fielding Run Value of -14. After a good defensive season in 2023, the Phillies had Marsh splitting time between center and left field last season. Johan Rojas manned center field the most for Philadelphia, but the 23-year-old batted .243/.279/.322 in 363 plate appearances.
Dombrowski might be fine entering Opening Day with this arrangement, but I'm not sure how well the Phillies outfield will hold up in a heated race in the NL East. Ideally, Dombrowski finds a taker in Castellanos, better suited to be a designated hitter, but he's owed $20 million in each of the next two seasons. It's a hard sell, but if Castellanos gets moved, the Phillies could push Marsh to right field while finding a better center fielder.
With a lineup of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner, Robert Jr. wouldn't have to be the star hitter. His hyper-aggressive approach could be slotted sixth batting behind JT Realmuto and Castellanos. Playing for a contender may help Robert rediscover his game from 2023.
While the Phillies make a lot of sense, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic poses another option for Robert: the Los Angeles Dodgers.
According to Rosenthal, the Dodgers' negotiations with Teoscar Hernandez are not progressing, and they are looking at other options for adding a right-handed bat. Roster Resource on FanGraphs is currently projecting Tommy Edman as the Dodgers starting center fielder. Edman has displayed good range with his high level of athleticism to chase down flies in center, but arm strength is a concern. Last year, Edman averaged 82.4 MPH throwing velocity from plays in center field. That lack of arm strength won't cut it long-term in center field.
After signing Michael Conforto to a one-year contract, the other Dodgers projected outfielder is Andy Pages, as Mookie Betts will transition to the infield. I think Pages would be better fitted in center with Edman in left field if we are trying to come up with projected lineups in December. Pages struggled against right-handed pitchers last season, batting .213/.277/.370, so maybe a platoon role paired with Conforto is the Dodgers' ideal setup.
That leaves center field for Robert to take, and just like the Phillies, he wouldn't have to worry about being the star. Robert might bat in the lower third of the Dodgers lineup with this arrangement.
Rosenthal added what he heard about the White Sox's asking price for Robert.
For Robert, the White Sox do not expect to receive multiple top prospects, but would want a "meaningful piece" in return, a source said.
It's up to everyone's imaginations to determine what "meaningful piece" means, but it does harken back to what James Fegan wrote here on Sox Machine earlier this month. Despite obvious trade partners in teams with World Series aspirations, maybe the White Sox would be better off holding on to Robert to see if he can restore the magic from 2023. If Robert does, the chances of adding multiple meaningful pieces before the trade deadline would increase. It's likely both the Phillies and Dodgers will have these present needs in July, or a surprise suitor emerges like Grant Brisbee campaigning for the San Francisco Giants to make the move.
However, as Chris Getz alluded to after announcing the Garrett Crochet trade, talks of trading star players that other teams want sometimes take months. The conversations Getz had this past July aided him in getting a deal done with Boston as the winter meetings, so it stands to reason that talks in December could lay the groundwork for a midsummer swap.
