Such is the state of the White Sox that 101 losses is seen as an optimistic forecast, but that's exactly what Baseball Prospectus has to offer. The first run of its 2025 PECOTA standings puts the White Sox at 61-101, and if the White Sox could guarantee a 20-win improvement without throwing a pitch, they'd probably lock in that record without second thought and simulate to 2026.
Then again, the nihilists among us can take it with a grain of salt, because PECOTA projected the 2024 White Sox to finish 65-97 at this time last year. It probably would've been closer to 61-101 had the Dylan Cease trade occurred beforehand, but that's still a pretty big miss, and one that can't be entirely ignored.
And it isn't. When you look at the range of projected outcomes -- the more enlightening part of the PECOTA projections than the standings themselves -- you can see a grudging acceptance of a roster that invites disaster. I've taken the AL Central blobs for 2025 and added the White Sox's 2024 blob below it:
Entering 2024, the roster still had the latent (now dormant) upsides of Yoán Moncada and Eloy Jiménez. The scenarios that saw above-average playing time and outcomes for those two and Luis Robert Jr. lengthened the front shoulder of their win curve, and, in the most remote occurrences, pushed them over .500 on a roster that still had a full season of Cease.
When you look at 2025's win curve, you'll see a lot more junk in the trunk, including noticeably more seasons with at least 115 losses than the last time around. Even then, it can't quite bring itself to imagine last year's horrors, bottoming out at 43-119. On the other hand, it also can't envision a scenario where the White Sox finish .500. In 1,000 simulated 2025 seasons, PECOTA has the Sox topping out at 78 wins.
When you scroll back up to the standings, it seems like the hopes of returning to the land of normal terrible teams lies in the run column. PECOTA has the White Sox scoring 631 runs, which is the worst in the American League, yet a spectacular improvement from 2024, when they scored just 507 runs and underperformed even the most ridiculous imagined set of circumstances. If the White Sox's offseason emphasis on hitting development and plate discipline materializes like they envisioned, this kind of improvement is within reach. If 2024 foreshadowed Getz's proclivity for picking up hitters with nothing left to give, then it'll be easy to pinpoint at least one source for massive underachievement.
White Sox retake Jake Amaya
The PECOTA standings also came out before another earth-shaking White Sox transaction: the return of Jake Amaya.
The White Sox claimed Amaya off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles, and designated Zach DeLoach for assignment to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.
The White Sox had DFA'd Amaya back on Jan. 9 to make room for Josh Rojas, and since he's still out of options, my guess is that the White Sox are really just lining up another shot to outright Amaya to Charlotte toward the end of spring training, because the 40-man roster (and fringes thereof) could really use a true defense-oriented shortstop.
That's a greater need than left-handed corner outfielder, anyway. The 40-man roster already features Andrew Benintendi, Mike Tauchman, Dominic Fletcher and Oscar Colás, and Cal Mitchell fits that bill among the non-roster invitees. DeLoach, who came over from Seattle in the Gregory Santos trade last February, had moments of adequacy in his first (only?) season with the White Sox. Alas, his power collapsed, resulting in just seven homers over 486 plate appearances between Charlotte and Chicago, and without the kind of baserunning or defensive value to offset it.
MLB fires Pat Hoberg
Pat Hoberg, the best balls-and-strikes umpire in Major League Baseball, is no longer an umpire in Major League Baseball.
The league fired him after a lengthy appeals process dating back to last May for "sharing" legal sports betting accounts with a friend who bet on baseball. MLB says that it did not find any evidence that Hoberg himself bet on baseball, and Hoberg himself denies ever doing so, but as the saying goes, the coverup might've been worse than the crime. Rob Manfred pointed to Hoberg's deletion of messages creating "at minimum the appearance of impropriety that warrants the most severe discipline."
Jesse Rogers provided a detailed summary of MLB's findings, and to answer the first question I had when reading about the arrangement that led to Hoberg's downfall, Hoberg shared an account because it was opened in Iowa when sports betting became legal there, and bets could only be made on a physical device located in Iowa, where Hoberg's friend resides. That doesn't excuse a pretty stunning lack of judgment for an MLB umpire, nor does Hoberg's excuse for deleting the messages offer much encouragement ("He was embarrassed by the frequency and volume of his legal non-baseball betting activity," Rogers wrote).
Hoberg can apply for reinstatement at the start of spring training 2026, and his status will be worth watching. In one sense, there isn't a fairer arbiter of the game. Ump Scorecards frequently graded Hoberg's work as the league best, including a perfect 129-for-129 performance in Game 2 of the 2022 World Series.
In another sense, the league has non-negligible reasons to think he could be compromised at some point. If nothing else, it's acutely ironic that somebody who was renowned for impeccable judgment of small, fast-moving objects was undone by poor judgment of a situation that unfolded over years.
