The Baseball Hall of Fame's Class of 2026, which was completed by the elections of Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones this past week, isn't the easiest to universally celebrate, because they all have something hanging over their heads. Jeff Kent was a strange product of a Veterans Committee that was purposely avoiding other candidates, Beltrán was the only player whose role was identified in the Astros' tub-thumping sign-stealing scandal, and Jones was a Hall of Fame-track center fielder in his 20s, but an itinerant fourth outfielder with a domestic violence guilty plea after age 30.
Underneath the enshrinees and the emotions they evoke, however, are some generally positive voting trends as the electorate evolves, including one that benefits the local candidate of note, Mark Buehrle.
For instance, not only was Jones the latest enshrinee to overcome a rock-bottom start to gain election by the BBWAA, but he closed more distance than anybody.
Lowest debut vote pct, eventually elected by BBWAA, since return to annual voting in 1966:2018 Andruw Jones: 7.3%2018 Scott Rolen: 10.2%2016 Billy Wagner: 10.5%2019 Todd Helton: 16.5%1970 Duke Snider: 17.0%1998 Bert Blyleven: 17.5%
— Sarah Langs (@slangsonsports.bsky.social) 2026-01-20T23:53:09.162Z
A little further down the ballot, Ryan Thibodaux said that Félix Hernández enjoyed the biggest year-to-year gain in Hall history, jumping 25.6 percent from his 2025 showing, edging Luis Aparicio in 1982 by one-tenth of a percent.
It was a big year for pitchers overall, and one with some unexplored ceiling. The top four pitchers on the ballot all made considerable leaps -- or, in the case of Cole Hamels, had the kind of ballot debut that might not have been anticipated five years ago.
| Pitcher | 2025 Actual | 2026 Actual | 2026 Public |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Pettitte | 27.9 | 48.5 | 57.6 |
| Félix Hernández | 20.6 | 46.1 | 55.1 |
| Cole Hamels | n/a | 23.8 | 31.0 |
| Mark Buehrle | 11.4 | 20 | 22.9 |
What's more, as you see in the last column, each pitcher underperformed the final pre-announcement public ballot count. That can tell you one of two things, or maybe both:
No. 1: You can't get immediately excited about the first year any of these pitchers approaches the 75-percent threshold on Thibodaux's tracker, because it'll probably take another cycle to get them over the hump if the unknown holdouts remain.
No. 2: You can feel optimistic about their long-term prospects, because the newer members of the electorate are more bullish about their Hall of Fame cases, and those voters are going to represent a greater proportion of ballots cast going forward.
In his review of the results at FanGraphs, Jay Jaffe isolated how the candidates performed with new voters, and each pitcher benefited handsomely from their support:
- Hernández: 75.7 percent
- Pettitte: 70.3 percent
- Hamels: 51.4 percent
- Buehrle: 40.5 percent
So when you add it all up, it's a little harder to gauge ceilings based off meager early returns, even if I'd still caution about getting carried away. Jones, Rolen, Wagner and Helton all had scant early support due to the historic backlog, whereas Buehrle has had a little less traffic in front of him. It should clear up even further next January, because three meritorious players have left the ballot, and Buster Posey and Jon Lester are the only newcomers who figure to warrant significant consideration.
What can be said is that Buehrle has distanced himself from the 5 percent threshold enough that falling off the ballot is no longer a concern, and the arrow is pointing toward even further progress over the coming years. I'd still bet against it taking him all the way to the top, but considering that Kent was elected through a committee after topping out at 46.5 percent in his 10th and final year on the ballot, support now can turn into support later once it's in a different panel's hands.
