It was a fun Opening Weekend for college baseball, as we were treated to some upsets to keep the top-ranked schools on their toes. A lot of eyes were on the tournament in Arlington, as the Oklahoma Sooners swept the Shriners Children’s College Showdown, beating Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and No. 10 TCU in very convincing fashion. Even though they were 10-run-ruled on Sunday, I was impressed by the Horned Frogs, who won back-to-back games against ranked Vanderbilt and Arkansas. Picking up early SEC wins will help TCU’s RPI, which was a point of contention last year when they missed out on hosting a Regional.
The biggest surprise was Michigan State traveling to Louisville and winning that series. Randy Seymour, from Frankfort, Ill., and Lincoln-Way East High School, was the hero of the opening series for the Spartans, going 5-for-13 with two home runs and six RBIs. In Surprise, Ariz., the University of Arizona was shocked as they were swept in that weekend tournament, losing to Stanford, No. 13 Oregon State, and Michigan.
Finally, in what I’m sure will be a season-long storyline, the Vanderbilt Commodores are a tough team to figure out early. They 10-run-ruled Texas Tech on Saturday, only to get themselves 10-run-ruled on Sunday against Oklahoma State. It’s early, but Vanderbilt is already knocked out of the Top 25 poll, suggesting confidence a bit shaken by outsiders.
We have a long way to go, which is the running theme in this week’s MLB Draft Report. Many schools have their “Get Right” weekend series coming up. Still, there’s more attention than usual in what’s happening in UCLA and Alabama, thanks to the talented shortstops Roch Cholowsky and Justin Lebron.
Roch Report: Solid start to 2026
As I mentioned on Monday’s podcast, the amount of hysteria surrounding Cholowsky early is a bit much. It’s a familiar vibe to the previous White Sox rebuild when fans would argue on social media when Eloy Jimenez or Yoan Moncada had a tough day in the minors, flexing their internet muscles in an effort to show they knew more ball than strangers. It's funny to look back at that time period and realize that we all looked like fools.
Against UC-San Diego, Cholowsky wasn’t all that challenged by pitching stuff; lots of breaking pitches and low-90s fastballs, which were expected. It’s always hard to evaluate those games because the pitching quality is more like High-A or even A-ball. It's cool that Cholowsky smashed a home run on Saturday, but what does it actually mean for his future projections as a major league star?
What impresses me about Cholowsky at the plate is how well he covers the outer half. San Diego tried to attack Cholowsky early with sliders, aiming for the outside corner. Those are not exactly pitches hitters want to go after early in the count, so it seemed like a safe plan. On Saturday, the very first pitch Cholowsky saw was a hanging curve, center-cut, that he demolished to left field.
As you can see in the slow-motion video above, that hanger gives everyone a chance to see how Cholowsky’s swing works. With an open stance, Cholowsky focuses on keeping his weight on that back hip before dropping his hands into position and firing forward. It’s a great “A” swing, and with Cholowsky’s strength, even fastballs on the outer half are in danger of being taken deep to right field. On Saturday, Cholowsky was about seven feet shy of hitting three home runs. His double landed on the warning track, and later Cholowsky’s sacrifice fly was caught at the right field wall. A three-home run game on opening weekend may have closed MLB draft-watching efforts for 80 percent of White Sox fans.
What I’m going to be paying close attention to for Cholowsky is how the team attacks him inside. I hypothesize that Cholowsky is so good at making quality contact on the outer half because that’s typically the attack plan against him. During this series, Cholowsky had three infield pop-ups off inside fastballs, and they were not major league average fastballs. At best, they were probably 40-grade pitches. Is handling inside heat Cholowsky’s biggest weakness? If so, that’s OK because no hitter is perfect. At camp, Munetaka Murakami is making swing adjustments. We saw Colson Montgomery reap the benefits of having an in-season reset to fix his swing mechanics (and get a hold of torpedo bats).
I’d love to sit down with Fuller for five minutes and have him break down Cholowsky’s swing for me; what he likes, and which parts he sees as areas for improvement. Because over the next 50 games, if every team tries to bust Cholowsky inside and succeeds by limiting his power, then we know there’s still room for improvement. But we also know that Cholowsky is physically strong and has a powerful swing.
Those are pluses in my book. I’d like to see him face a pitcher with at least one major league quality pitch. Against Tulane on Tuesday, Cholowsky crushed his second home run of the season on a low 90's fastball that was center-cut and thigh-high.
While there’s a lot of attention on Cholowsky’s home run, his best play was an absolute web gem on Opening Day. On a shallow fly ball, Cholowsky covered a ton of ground to make a sick, over-the-shoulder catch, robbing a base hit. I’ve watched that defensive play more than a dozen times and am just in awe at how much ground Cholowsky covered. It’s those types of plays, which I’ve seen more than once these last two seasons, that convince me Cholowsky is worthy to be taken first overall.
Justin Lebron avoids striking out
Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron had a couple of highlights against Washington State. Three games in, Lebron already has two home runs, but they were in low-leverage situations. His first home run came in the ninth inning on Opening Day when Alabama was trailing 8-2, and the second homer came when the Crimson Tide were ahead 10-0 on Saturday night. Watching the film, I don’t think Lebron saw anything faster than 91 mph, and the Cougars lack major league-quality arms. Sprinkle in three stolen bases, and just like Cholowsky, it was a solid start to 2026 for Lebron.
The best sight is that Lebron did not strike out in three games against Washington State. He was still aggressive early in the count, averaging 3.13 pitches seen per plate appearance. One way to cut down on strikeouts is not to wait to put the ball into play. Is that the most optimized way of hitting? There’s a debate to be had, especially if opposing teams start Lebron with breaking stuff early. Reducing strikeouts while increasing groundouts is not what scouts want to see.
Looking ahead at Alabama’s schedule, I don’t think we’ll see Lebron truly tested until he faces Oregon State on Feb. 28 in the Frisco College Baseball Classic.
Jackson Flora turns heads vs. Southern Miss
While the top college hitters had solid starts, the most spectacular performance from opening weekend from a draft point of view was UC-Santa Barbara RHP Jackson Flora. After allowing a leadoff double on his very first pitch, Flora dominated Southern Miss over six innings of work. His final line on 82 pitches was 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K. Even in the first inning, Flora showcased his four-pitch arsenal.
What impressed me most was Flora’s ability to manipulate his breaking stuff. He has both a slider and a sweeper to keep opposing hitters honest, whether he wants to challenge them horizontally or vertically. Against right-handers, Flora often started them with a breaking pitch as Southern Miss batters were gearing up for early heat. In this outing, both the slider and sweeper are easy 50-grade or better pitches.
For left-handers, Flora throws a changeup that clocks in at 90 mph. It’s a standard change with some sink, but I wonder if he’s aiming to throw more of the kick change variation we are seeing in the majors. Anything with more sink action for Flora would be good as a quick way of getting lefties to chase early in the count, either to generate whiffs or weak grounders.
What brings scouts to the yard is Flora’s four-seam fastball. Throughout the 2026 season, you will see many Pitching Ninja social media videos of Flora clocking in at triple digits. The velocity is serious and will give many college hitters fits, so expect double-digit strikeout games coming soon for Flora. What gives me pause in saying the fastball is his best pitch is that it appears pretty flat, but the metrics have it clocked around 20 IVB (Induced Vertical Break). With RPM’s over 2600, maybe my eyes are easily deceived by Flora’s fastball.
For opposing hitters, I wish them the best of luck. To step into the box against Flora is a gameplan of gearing up for 98+ mph and looking fastball. After a couple of breaking pitches get the hitter behind the count 0-2, it becomes a guessing game. Is another slider or sweeper coming? Or 100 mph?
This type of arsenal is what MLB teams are craving , and we know how expensive pitching is in free agency. Today, Flora is ranked No. 9 in the Top 50, but if he dominates in the first month like I think he can, don’t be surprised if he cracks the Top 5. It’s a special arm.
Tyce Armstrong, son of Olympic diver, hits 3 grand slams
Hitting three grand slams in a season is a big feat, no matter the level of competition, but to do so in a single game is hard to fathom. But Baylor’s Tyce Armstrong became the second player in NCAA history to do so and set a single-game school record of 12 RBIs versus New Mexico on Opening Day. A transfer from UT-Arlington, Armstrong is a redshirt senior working on attaining his Master's degree at Baylor.
Here’s a video of some College Baseball history last night in the game between New Mexico State and Baylor 🚨
— World Baseball Network (@WorldBaseball_) February 14, 2026
Baylor first baseman Tyce Armstrong hit three grand slams and became the first player to do that since 1957! pic.twitter.com/rf3ucnH5gJ
While researching Armstrong, I came across the story of his parents, both divers at the University of Texas. His father, Kenny, competed in the 1976 Olympics for Canada before diving at the University of Texas. Starting in 1984, Kenny Armstrong began coaching divers and eventually became Team USA’s diving coach at the 2000 Olympics. In those games,the elder Armstrong coached gold medalist Laura Wilkinson. Mom, Patty, was part of the University of Texas national championship diving team in 1990.
So at the next family get-together, I wonder how three grand slams in a game stacks up against a national championship and a gold medal?
Other notable performances
- OF Derek Curiel: 5-for-12 vs. UW-Milwaukee. Went 1-for-5 on Opening Day with 3 strikeouts. Only 1 walk for the series with no extra base hits. On Monday against Kent State, Curiel went 1-for-4 with a double and a walk. Not the strong start I was expecting.
- OF Drew Burress: 3-for-13 vs. Bowling Green. 2 doubles and 3 RBI. Did steal two bases on Opening Day
- OF Caden Sorrell: 9-for-15 vs. Tennessee Tech with 3 HR and 10 RBI. Texas A&M’s lineup has the juice. The Aggies should put up big offensive numbers in 2026.
- RHP Cameron Flukey vs. Fairfield: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER (two solo home runs), 1 BB, 7 K
- RHP Liam Peterson vs. UAB: 3.1 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 5 BB, 3 K
NCBWA TOP 25 POLL - FEB. 16
| Rank | School | Record | Previous Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LSU | 3-0 | 1 |
| 2 | Texas | 3-0 | 3 |
| 3 | UCLA | 2-1 | 2 |
| 4 | Georgia Tech | 3-0 | 4 |
| 5 | Mississippi State | 3-0 | 6 |
| 6 | Coastal Carolina | 3-0 | 7 |
| 7 | Auburn | 3-0 | 8 |
| 8 | Arkansas | 2-1 | 5 |
| 9 | North Carolina | 3-0 | 12 |
| 10 | TCU | 2-1 | 9 |
| 11 | Florida State | 2-0 | 14 |
| 12 | Tennessee | 3-0 | 15 |
| 13 | Oregon State | 2-1 | 11 |
| 14 | Georgia | 2-1 | 13 |
| 15 | Clemson | 3-0 | 15 |
| 16 | Florida | 2-1 | 16 |
| 17 | NC State | 2-0 | 19 |
| 18 | Kentucky | 3-0 | 21 |
| 19 | Oklahoma | 3-0 | NR |
| 20 | Miami (Fla.) | 3-0 | 22 |
| 21 | Louisville | 1-2 | 10 |
| 22 | Southern Miss | 2-1 | 20 |
| 23 | West Virginia | 3-0 | NR |
| 24 | Virginia | 3-0 | 24 |
| 25 | Texas A&M | 3-0 | NR |
| Dropped out:. | No. 18 Vanderbilt | No. 23 Arizona |
Games I’m watching this weekend
No. 10 TCU vs. No. 3 UCLA
Friday - 7:00 PM CT - Fox Sports 1
Saturday - 4:00 PM CT - B1G+
Sunday - 3:00 PM CT - B1G+
Prospects To Watch
UCLA
- SS Roch Cholowsky
- 1B Mulivai Levu
TCU
- OF Sawyer Strosnider
- OF Chase Brunson
- RHP Tommy LaPour (Will miss next start)
Friday night's game will be nationally televised on Fox Sports 1, but recent injury news from TCU softens the spotlight. First reported by Jamie Plunkett of HornedFrogBlitz of 24/7 Sports, Friday night starting pitcher Tommy LaPour will miss his next start due to elbow soreness. The Horned Frogs could bump Noah Franco as an opener, and he was impressive against Arkansas pitching three hitless innings. Offensively for TCU, both Sawyer Strosnider and Chase Brunson have first-round potential, and could give UCLA pitching fits, making for a very entertaining and competitive series.
