It's understandable for White Sox fans to be feeling some deja vu, as we once again have one of the top prospects in all of baseball sitting at Triple-A Charlotte with no baseball reason for him to be there. Indeed, Luis Robert appears to be in Eloy Jimenez' shoes from last season, when I made the case for a promotion despite the service time implications. Let's re-visit the reasons I listed, with the years rolled forward by one.
- The fans want to see him in Chicago
- Promoting a deserving employee is the right thing to do
- He needs to be challenged to continue his development
- The 2020 season matters
- There would be an increase in revenue
- An extension could simply buy the extra team control gained by delaying his promotion
- It preserves a positive player-team relationship
- Holding him back sends a bad message to players inside and outside the organization
- Heavy arbitration salaries limit the value of team control in 2026
- Planning for the next few years is more important — and more feasible — than planning for the distant future
The notable exception this time around is the possibility of buying extra team control via an extension. As Robert was paid a life-changing signing bonus, he doesn't need to be as concerned as Jimenez with securing his financial future. It's therefore more likely that Robert will bet on himself to maximize his earnings potential than sign a team-friendly deal.
Extension potential aside, most of the reasons cited above are still applicable to Robert's situation. In particular, Jimenez has perfectly illustrated why some of these concerns are important. When Eloy got his first taste of the major leagues, he struggled badly for almost two months. Thanks to James Fegan's reporting from earlier this month, we have some insight as to why that was the case.
It’s been about five years since anything hitting-related came slowly to Jiménez. While he was tearing apart five levels of minor-league pitching, with the limited resources that’s often present in the minors, Jiménez got used to a preparation process for opposing pitchers that consisted of “What’s he got?” and “How hard does he throw it?”
Pivoting to the level of video prep required to face major-league pitching has been an adjustment, even for someone who has always adjusted as quickly as Jiménez has to advanced levels of stuff.
“When I got here, I didn’t do that because I thought it was going to be the same,” Jiménez said. “Before in the minors, I always had a plan but now it’s a little bit different because they know what spot they want to put the ball. In the minors, they just throw it to home plate. Here, they locate really good.”
Jimenez didn't have the resources to aggressively study up on minor league pitching, and his minor league numbers make it quite clear that he didn't need it. It took Jimenez time to adjust and learn how to prepare for the ways major league pitchers would attack him. Once he began taking the extra steps, the improvement was dramatic.
- Through May 31: .220/.273/.390
- June 1 and after: .269/.341/.580
Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert are not the same player, and we don't have much of an idea whether Robert is going to undergo this same type of learning curve. However, we do have plenty of evidence that making the transition to the major leagues is not easy, and many great players struggle out of the gate. Josh checked in with Kiley McDaniel about why FanGraphs didn't identify Robert as a FV 60 prospect. McDaniel's answer explained that Robert's outstanding tools mask his pitch-selection issues, and he's still a risky prospect because it's unclear how quickly (or if) he'll get over them:
I bring all this up to say that while I'm not saying Luis Robert is Lewis Brinson, his issue is similar in that he's so toolsy he can't be challenged in AAA. We've heard from analysts and scouts that his pitch selection is still an issue (particularly off-speed) and he'll need to figure that out in the big leagues, which could be painful and slow (Brinson) or go quickly because his tools are also elite in MLB and that it won't challenge him for more than a couple months (Ronald Acuna).
The alternative to challenging Robert with working on his issues in the major leagues is letting him meaninglessly obliterate baseballs at Charlotte. As implied by McDaniel and as has been discussed here, it's highly unlikely the White Sox or Robert are going to learn anything from his time at Triple-A, which makes it a waste of time. The juiced ball, tiny park, and pitchers lacking either top-level stuff or top-level command mean that it's doubtful Robert will ever put up a stat line suggesting anything is wrong. Charlie Tilson, Adam Engel, and Zack Collins all have an OPS over .800 at Charlotte this season, while guys like Ryan Goins and Daniel Palka are over .900. If these very flawed hitters don't show signs of struggling, how can we expect the level to highlight the holes in Robert's game?
The White Sox are going nowhere in 2019, and that makes August and September of this season a great opportunity for Robert to go through these early struggles and learn what, if anything, he needs to work on as we head into the offseason.
***
As the White Sox look ahead to 2020, they must decide what the year means for the organization. If they're looking at it as just another one of the five years to build the house, then it probably doesn't much matter whether Robert gets his feet wet now or next April. Treating 2020 as just another rebuilding year is an unacceptable and thoroughly problematic viewpoint, but it'd be consistent with prioritizing service time manipulation over developing their top prospect.
Alternatively, if the White Sox are interested in competing next season, they'd be very well-served to have Robert begin to face a potentially-rough learning curve sooner rather than later. The greatest concern with holding him down until mid-April is not that the 2020 White Sox would play without Robert for a couple of weeks, but rather the possibility that his bat will struggle through an adjustment period like Eloy's did for multiple months. The choice to let Robert begin to face major league pitching in 2019 versus 2020 could very well make or break whether the White Sox will snap their 11-year postseason drought next year. Jimenez has provided an important data point for how Robert's transition could shake out; we'll soon know whether the White Sox have learned anything from it. If this organization is planning to take its 2020 major league team seriously, it’s time to promote Luis Robert.
