PREAMBLE
In my preamble I would like to announce that I have read the MVP Machine by Ben Lindenbergh and Travis Sawchick, as well as have a working knowledge of wOBA and can say the term “spin rates” a lot so I am uniquely qualified to tell Rick Hahn how to do his job, as he sucks! Lets go!.
Seriously though; its time to push forward with this rebuild while also not wildly dealing prospects away. I am going to wait until July to see where we are and how some of our guys injury rehabs went before I really go “All-In”.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Write “tender” or “non-tender” after each player and their projected 2020 salaries. Feel free to offer explanation afterward if necessary.
- Alex Colomé, $10.3M- Tender. Need a closer.
- Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M- Goodbye old friend. Hard to say I will “miss” you but I hope you find greener pastures.
- James McCann, $4.9M- Duh.
- Carlos Rodon, $4.5M- That slider, if he can ever stay healthy, could be playoff series altering out of the bullpen. I will risk the 4.5M.
- Leury García, $4M- He won the UTIL job.
- Evan Marshall, $1.3M-
- Josh Osich, $1M- Bye
- Ryan Goins, $900K- Bye
CLUB OPTIONS- Write “pick up” or “decline” after the option.
- Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout- Absolutely not. Goodbye Beef.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS-Try to retain, or let go?
- Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019)- extend (3 yrs, 35M)- Anyone who thinks Jerry isn’t 1_ re-signing him and 2) paying him a fair salary is out of their minds. Enough with the 2yrs/20M suggestions Jerry and Rick are going to help their guy out here and good for him. 3 years takes us until is 36, that’s fine.
- Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019)- bye
- Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019)- bye
- Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract)- bye but probably see you again somehow.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: Alex Avila (1 yr, $4M)- Generic solid backup lefty catcher for McCann. Not really buying Zach Collins as a catcher. Avila was good for a nice 97 wRC+ and 1.3 fWAR in 200 AB’s last year, that is literally exactly what we hope for here.
No. 2: Scooter Gennett (1 yr, $3M)- Lefty hitting masher in 2017 and 2018, he was absolutely awful last year. I am going to bring him in to play 2B while we wait for Nick and hope he shows life again. This lineup is very righty heavy so maybe he reverts back to prior form and can get some DH run and backup IF reps when Nicky takes over. If he sucks its 2 weeks and $4M, can’t be worse than Yonder.
No. 3: Corey Dickerson (1 yr, $10M)- Another lefty to balance out the lineup, Dickerson will stabilize RF for us and give us a genuine professional hitter who can get on base and keep the lineup moving. Literally the antithesis of Daniel Palka. I will be signing some injury insurance.
No 4: Brett Gardner (2 yrs, $14M)- He is old, but he is coming off a 141 game 3.6 fWAR season and has winning experience (Yes, I value guys who know how to win. Not sure if that’s in the MVP machine. Sue me). He isn’t anything special in LF but my god have you seen Eloy out there? I would prefer Luis Robert worry about adjusting to off speed and not covering two positions.
No. 5: Stephen Strasburg (6 yrs, $150M)-Ok enough generic lefty hitters, time for Jerry to put up or shut up. If you didn’t like what the Marlins baseball ops guy said, then prove him wrong and go out and get Lucas Giolito some help. Stras has 4 yrs, $100M left on his deal so I am going to bet he opts out after a dominant post season and gets a few years tacked on. Hows an extra 2 yrs 50M sound? For comparisons sake Yu Darvish signed a 6 yr/126M deal at age 31 two summers ago, so an extra 24M for Stras sounds right (remember, history of arm injuries here). People will absolutely call this an overpay, and it probably is, but the man is coming off a 5.7 fWAR season. That is roughly around $50M of value. He gives us two of those the next two seasons at the top of the rotation with Lucas than whatever his downswing looks like from 33-37 won’t matter.Plus, I think Strasburg is a good mentor for Michael Kopech, a power throwing righty who got tommy john and needs to learn how to throw a changeup.
No. 6: Cole Hamels (2 yrs, $30M)- Feels like the Cubs are probably going to re-shape that roster a bit this winter so we swoop in and grab a steady lefty vet SP to help stabilize the rotation.
TRADES
If things go according to plan and we are in the AL Central race at the All Star Break I am going to empty the farm. For now though, pretty quiet on the trade front. Dunning, Stiever and Vaughn stay in the system. Obviously there will be moves to made on the edges with some of our depth guys in the system, but that is simply not worth predicting and not interesting to read I am sure. So I am going to hold my farm until July and wait and see.
SUMMARY
Ok my opening day lineup looks something like this
- Brett Gardner- LF (7M)
- Yoan Moncada- 3B (.5M)
- Jose Abreu- 1B (12M)
- Eloy Jimenez- DH (2.33M)
- Corey Dickerson- RF (10M)
- Tim Anderson- SS (4M)
- James McCann- C (5M)
- Scooter Gennett- 2B (3M)
- Leury Garcia- CF (4M)
Bench: Adam Engel (.5M), Alex Avila (4M), Zach Collins (.5M), Danny Mendick (.5M).
Two weeks into the season Mendick and Engel magically get sent down for Madrigal and Robert, who replace Gennett and Garcia in the starting lineup.
- Stephen Strasburg (25M)
- Lucas Giolito (.5M)
- Cole Hamels (15M)
- Reynaldo Lopez (.5M)
- Dylan Cease (.5M)
Bullpen:
Michael Kopech (until he is fully healthy) (.5M)
Evan Marshall (1M)
Ian Hamilton (.5M)
Kelvin Herrera (8.5M)
Jace Fry (.5M)
Jimmy Cordero (.5M)
Aaron Bummer (.5M)
Alex Colome (10M)
Payroll~ 120M. I think I did the math right and got Jerry right up to his limits. He is 83 years old and spent the winter being called cheap, time for him to shut some people up. Probably not though. Anyways, this team is probably a Rick Renteria pink slip away from seriously contending for the AL Central, and then we get into the playoffs with Gio-Strasburg-Kopech and anything can happen. Lets have a great 2020, Go Sox.
