PREAMBLE
I already posted my plan, which involved signing Stephen Strasburg and sitting out the trade market. Then I thought about Jerry, and realized I want to post something actually possible for the good of the exercise. The reality is, Jerry is so god damn cheap its absurd to predict winning a FA bidding war until we do it. So it is up to Rick to get creative on the trade market to create an AL Central contender for $120M. Here we go, attempt #2.
Constraints I am operating under
- Rick Renteria can't be fired
- $120M budget isn't as serious a constraint as no big deals is. I think Jerry can be sold on spending some more coin for a year, he is 83 years old after all, but he isn't giving any one person 25M a year or signing somebody for 6+ years. He hates that kind of financial commitment.
- No Cole, Stras, Rendon or Grandal. Jerry tax. He is not winning that bidding war.
- Jose is getting 3 yrs, $35M. I don't know what happens here but its absurd to suggest the Sox aren't going to pay him. No 2 yrs, 18M here.
- Luis Robert is going to break camp with the team. No reason why, just that its absurd he wasn't up and it's my team for this exercise so he is up.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Write “tender” or “non-tender” after each player and their projected 2020 salaries.
- Alex Colomé, $10.3M- I value consistency at the back of the bullpen, and Colome is steady as they come. Probably not $10M good, but we aren't major FA players anyways.
- Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M- Goodbye to the #1 friend of the rebuild. It's been fun.
- James McCann, $4.9M- Duh
- Carlos Rodon, $4.5M- Way to much talent to let him walk. That slider could be worth $4.5M in one October against lefties.
- Leury García, $4M- Solid price here if he can stay somewhat healthy; can cover the whole diamond.
- Evan Marshall, $1.3M- Depth
- Josh Osich, $1M- Depth
- Ryan Goins, $900K- Remember when he was our best hitter for two weeks? Bye
CLUB OPTIONS
Write “pick up” or “decline” after the option.
- Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout- Has a single plan picked this up? Bye.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, or let go?
- Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019)- 3 yrs/35M
- Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019)- No, but maybe for depth in February
- Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019)- Go away
- Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract)- I mean you know he is ending up pitching for us in September somehow but no for now.
FREE AGENTS
DEPTH, real Major League DEPTH. No More Daniel Palka.
No. 1: Alex Avila (1 yr $4 million)- A major league quality platoon partner to James McCann on non-Gio days. Old friend too. This could also be Jason Castro. The key point is I am not expecting Zack Collins to fulfill this role, I want a true MLB level backup.
No. 2: Mike Moustakas (3 yr, $45M)- Counting on Zack Collins is not going to be apart of my plan. I need seasoned veterans around TA7, Eloy, Yoan and LuBob. Mike Moustakas is my DH and platoon partner to Jose who is going to be what we thought Yonder was last year, and is going to fill in at 2B before Nick is ready. Hopefully this goes better than that did.
No. 3- Todd Frazier (1 yrs, $7M)- I wasn't kidding when I said it's time for pros around the core. No more fucking Daniel Palka and Matt Skole garbage, we are going to surrond the core 4 with dudes who can hit a baseball and get on base. Todd is both the best dude ever and a pro hitter. Runs hot and cold for sure but he's going to end the season with something around a 100 wRC+, not a 2 (yes, that was Daniel Palka's 2019 wRC+ in 93 AB's. 2.).
No. 4- Corey Dickerson (2 yrs, $19M)- Professional hitter who hasn't posted a below 100 wRC+ season since he came into the majors. Mam, the check please.
No. 5- Jake Odorizzi (4 yrs, $65M)- The same goes for the staff. I am not doing Ervin Santana starts this year, Lucas needs help. I want pitchers who keep us in and maybe even win some games. Jake Odorizzi is that.
TRADES
Propose trades that you think sound reasonable for both sides, and the rationale behind them.
First time around I didn't trade and held on to my farm for mid-season deals to complement my big free agency signing. That isn't happening this time. Need cost controlled guys to add to the core.
*All trades approved by Baseball Trade Value trade simulator*
No. 1: Trade Dylan Cease to the New York Mets for Michael Conforto and Robert Gsellman.
Ok so here is the big fish. Dylan Cease has all the talent, but I don't think he is really ready to be a starter in a playoff chase right now, there is still a ways to go. Meanwhile, Michael Conforto is as steady as they come and has just a gorgeous lefty swing, can play a good RF, and offers 2 years of control. The Mets can replace him with Nimmo and get younger and cheaper with Cease. Gsellman is a nice add on for us as he becomes the multi inning swingman/depth piece we need so badly.
No. 2: Trade Jace Fry to the New York Yankees for Clint Frazier and JA Happ
The Yankees are going to do something drastic this off-season, and Cashman is going to need to dump some salary. I think they make a real run at Gerritt Cole and just try to pay through the roof, so shedding JA Happ's 17M is going to be paramount. We flip them a fun pitcher to try to tinker in Fry, take Happ's $17M for 2020 (He is still a fine starter) and get Clint Frazier, who the Yankees don't give a shit about.
No. 3: Trade Zack Collins and Cabrera Weaver to the Cincinnati Reds for Anthony DeScalfini
Here is our Michael Kopech placeholder/swingman/injury replacement. DeScalfini is a very solid pitcher but enters his 3rd year of ARB and the Reds have a Trevor Bauer to pay. We give them their hypothetical 3rd catcher/Joey Votto replacement and a future AA Billy Hamilton for DeScalfini.
SUMMARY
- Tim Anderson, SS (4M)
- Yoan Moncada, 3B (.5M)
- Jose Abreu, 1B (12M)
- Eloy Jiminez, DH (2.33M)
- Michael Conforto, RF (9.2M)
- Corey Dickerson, LF (9.5M)
- Luis Robert, CF (.5M)
- Mike Moustakas, 2B (15M)
- James McCann, C (5M)
Bench: Alex Avila (C), Leurey Garcia (UTIL), Clint Frazier (OF), Todd Frazier (IF)= 15.5M
- Lucas Giolito- .5M
- Jake Odorizzi- 17M
- JA Happ- 17M
- Reynaldo Lopez- .5M
- Anthony DeScalfini- 5M
Bullpen:
Michael Kopech- .5M
Robert Gsellman- 1.2M
Josh Osich- 1M
Evan Marshall- 1.3M
Jimmy Cordero- .5M
Aaron Bummer- .5M
Alex Colome- 10M
Payroll- 127M
As you can see, I went 7M over, but I didn't guarantee anyone over $65M and hooked up Jose, so I think we can sell Jerry on this. If it all goes to shit he can be back down under $100M in no time (Happ and Frazier are 1 year deals). In the meantime, we have now insulated the core 4 with professional hitters all throughout the lineup and the bench. Clint Frazier is now our 4th OF and injury replacement, not Adam Engel. Todd Frazier is now our bench power bat and DH backup, not AJ Reed. Alex Avila replaces Beef. Nick Madrigal waits in the wings in Charlotte to turn Moose into a DH. Michael Conforto shores up RF for us finally. Jake Odorozzi, Anthony Descalfini and Robert Gsellman provide us professional innings and give us depth so Dylan Covey can finally buy a place in Charlotte. This team probably ins't a WS contender, that's a little further down the road in LuBob and Eloy's development, but they should contend for the AL Central crown and can actually withstand a fucking injury or two this year without giving us Dylan Covey. I am not relying on quality innings from Ian Hamilton, Caleb Frare, Tyler Johnson or any total unknown either. I kept Dane Dunning, Jimmy Lambert and Jonathan Stiever for the post-JA Happ future, and Andrew Vaughn, Micker Adolfo, Luis Basabe, Blake Rutherfordand Gavin Sheets get to stay in the minors and develop until I need them or want to swing a major deal to get the star I didn't add this off-season. All in all, I am counting on my stars already being here, and me adding the right sidekicks. Frankly, with Jerry at the helm, I really think this is the only viable plan. So while losing Dylan Cease hurts, I think I have constructed a team with a serious shot at the AL Central in 2020 who is also still set up for sustained success and financial flexibility. Go Sox.
