PREAMBLE
Welcome back to our annual Sisyphean festival, while that could have gone better on just about every level, but that’s our 2019 White Sox folks. This team is on the cusp of being competitive, especially given the state of the AL Central. A few well executed moves could make a notable and convincing change for the south siders.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- James McCann, $4.9M – Tender
- Ryan Goins, $900K – Non-Tender
- Yolmer Sanchez, $6.2M – Avoiding Arbitration
- Leury Garcia, $4M – Tender
- Carlos Rodon, $4.5M – Tender
- Alex Colome, $10.3M – Tender
- Evan Marshall, $1.3M – Tender
- Josh Osich, $1M – Tender
Prior to the numbers coming out I was all in favor of tendering Yolmer, but more on that later. Goins is the only obvious non-tender. Osich, while occasionally useful in stretches this past season, is in an odd place in the MLB given the batter minimum rule going into effect next season. I’m banking on his splits vs righties getting better here and hopefully that pays off here. I would non-tender Colome but that, along with thinking that the White Sox will be the winning bid for Gerrit Cole, exist outside the realm of possibility I will be working with for this exercise. This front office, until proven otherwise, doesn’t admit they are wrong like that. Carlos Rodon was an interesting case, I opted to tender him and work him back into a bullpen role sometime after the allstar break. That slider could be deadly out of the pen.
CLUB OPTIONS
- Wellington Castillo, $8 million/$500K buyout – Buyout
And don’t let the door hit you on the way out. Or do, I really don’t care as long as you are gone.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Jose Abreu (made $16 million in 2019) – Extend 2/26 M
- Hector Santiago (Minor League Contract in 2019) – Let Go, Minor League deal with NRI
- Ivan Nova (made $9.17 million in 2019) – Let Go
- Jon Jay (made $4 million in 2019) – Let Go
All fairly obvious decisions here as well. After the 2/26 million contract, Abreu is being transitioned to the Konerko contract plan.
ROSTER CLEANUP & RULE 5 PROTECTION
- Matt Skole – DFA
- Manny Banuelos – DFA
- Thaygo Vieira – Non-Tender
- Daniel Palka – Non-Tender
- Dane Dunning – Worth protecting for depth and flight risk
- Blake Rutherford – Traded for him a few years back, still is somewhat interesting enough to hold onto incase of power development
- Bernardo Flores – Its working for him and as we saw this past season there is no such thing as too much minor league depth
- Zack Burdi – former 1st round pick, close one but also a flight risk
Knock one back for Daniel Palka, it was fun but the way you played baseball sure wasn't. While working on this I looked at the 40 man roster and the players that are Rule 5 draft eligible and I made this part of the roster construction. I opted to protect three obvious ones and a not so obvious one: Dunning, Rutherford, Flores, and Burdi. Matt Foster, Jimmy Lambert, Joel Booker, Mitch Roman, and the unprotected ones from last year aren’t much of a flight risk.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: Yasmani Grandal (4 years, $74 million with a team option for a 5th year @$16 million 20/20/18/16/16*). Hey look, yet another plan involving Yasmani Grandal. We’ve beaten to death on these plans why he’d be a great addition to this team so I’ll try not to repeat too much. James McCann had a good year in 2019 but he’s not a primary starting catcher as he demonstrated down the stretch. He’s the best catcher on the market if he declines his part of the mutual option, which he probably will given the lack of QO. He’s turning down 16 million on the mutual option so the early part of the contract is going to have to beat that. Sometime rotating at DH will do some good, good first step.
No. 2: Madison Bumgarner (5 year, $100 million). A real deal pitcher to go with Giolito and with the young arms in the rotation we desperately need. While Madbum really needs no introduction, he’s lefty with a good track record and given the overwhelming right-handedness of the rotation this is definitely a positive. While he is 30 and turning 31 in the beginning of August he still has some good years left. Given the lack of rotation that will be available at the beginning of the season
No. 3: Alex Wood (one year, $9 million). Have I mentioned how bad the depth at SP is? Kopech has been alluded to not being ready/won’t be on the major league roster on the outset barring anything crazy from happening (mostly injury). Wood didn’t get a great year by any stretch last year but he’s going to be 29 next year and not pitching Great American Ballpark should be better for his line. The biggest question mark is the condition of his back that wreaked havoc on his season last year.
No. 4: Drew Pomeranz (two years, $16 million). A lefty that can get both sides out in the bullpen, that’s always a good thing. His splits from starter and reliever are much more in favor of him remaining the bullpen but if need be can make a start or two in a pinch.
No. 5: Yolmer Sanchez (two years, $8 million). This is here because this feels like something that is going to happen. The middle infield depth also isn’t particularly good making this feel like even more inevitable.
Failure No. 1: Gerrit Cole (7 years, $215 million). The White Sox won’t beat the two criteria that they are looking for 1) exceeding the record set by David Price (the above) and 2) exceed the AAV record set by Greinke (34.4 M). He’s very likely ticketed for the west coast, probably with a lot of Arte Moreno’s money.
Failure No. 2: Not pursuing Anthony Rendon. Probably the best position player available this year and I don’t think that the White Sox are going to make a legitimate pursuit of it.
TRADES
Propose trades that you think sound reasonable for both sides, and the rationale behind them. A good example of a bad idea:
No. 1: Trade Jace Fry and Luis Basabe to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Joc Pederson. It’s no secret that the White Sox have wanted Pederson in the past and given the abyss in RF in 2018 this feels like a good idea. Pederson may only have one year of control left so the return is lower, but he’s still a good option for 2019 and possibly beyond if an extension can be reached as 2020 will be his age 28 season.
SUMMARY
Opening Day Roster
Position Players
- Anderson SS
- Moncada 3B
- Abreu 1B
- Pederson RF
- Jimenez LF
- Grandal C
- Collins DH
- Sanchez/Mendick 2B
- Engel CF
Starting Pitchers
- Giolito/Bumgarner/Lopez/Cease/Wood
Relievers
- Colome/Bummer/Cordero/Herrera/Osich/Pomeranz/Fulmer/Marshall
I tried to go with a realistic approach on this and go with realistic targets, which is how I ended up with the trade for Pederson and retaining Yolmer (because I can’t see the White Sox not trying to retain Yolmer). The starting pitching depth before wasn’t good at all and now there's at least some passable depth as the TJ squad all get back to pitching. We cleared four extra spots to protect four players for the Rule 5 draft. We patched some hole and moved a bit further from the stars and scrubs model but we aren’t quite there yet, and nor will we be at the beginning of next season without serious overhauls in approach that the front office hasn’t shown before. The first week or two of the season is going to be rough as neither Madrigal nor Robert will be breaking camp with the team, unless there is a deal signed somewhere. My current bets are Robert up around April 16th for the home series against the Rangers and Madrigal up after the All Star break.
The plan is also over budget to the tune of 11 Million. As stated earlier, I don’t think Kopech is starting the season in Chicago necessitating the addition of two starting pitchers this offseason because Dylan Covey isn’t the answer to that question. Then there’s the question of perspective, if all the people around the around the organization think that the perception around ownership is wrong, this is the time to change that. Don’t kick that can down the line with “The money will be spent,” the division is soft and get-able, get on after it.
