[Jofp] As Cirensica’s Offseason Plan

PREAMBLE

The White Sox were in a position to add last year to commence building the contending team for years. Alas, we missed the boat and got the Machado’s family & friends combo, and used up a bunch of incredible bad players that I wouldn’t even called AAAA level. That can’t happen again.

My off-season plan will be based on a simple premise: don’t subtract. Paying for players that produce negative value has doomed this team for years. We have the core. Let’s help them. We don’t need to add more stars at this juncture.  It’ll be nice, but we probably don’t need to go that way.  Last year the White Sox gave more than 100 Pas to seven players that subtracted value for a total of -4.5 fWAR. That is an amazing waste of roster spots to produce worse than nothing. Every team has their own bad players, but no winning team has seven of them and give them 100 PAs.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

Write “tender” or “non-tender” after each player and their projected 2020 salaries. Feel free to offer explanation afterward if necessary.

• Alex Colomé, $10.3M => NO
• Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M => YES
• James McCann, $4.9M => YES
• Carlos Rodon, $4.5M => YES
• Leury García, $4M => NO
• Evan Marshall, $1.3M => YES
• Josh Osich, $1M => NO
• Ryan Goins, $900K => NO

I am among the minority here: I tendered Yolmer. He had a bad year, but before that, he was a 2 fWAR player. He won’t hurt the team. He is just 27 and hit both sides, and he is a superb defender that can spell, in short stints, 3B, SS, and 2B competently. Moncada and Timmy seem to always find ways to get hurt for short period of time. Are we gonna play Mendick when that happen? Mendick’s only proven asset is that he is cheap. He is 26 with no MLB experience. The risk for one of those negative fWAR player with 100 PAs is there, and we need to avoid those.

Why Leury is gone? Because he is no longer needed. Robert is coming. Engel is a better fielder, and he seems to be turning off a corner. With Sánchez, we no longer need a utility infielder at 4M. For depth, we have Mendick.

Colomé at 10.3 million is just too much. pNoles pretty much covered why he is a risky proposition. We will need to find a replacement. More on that later.

CLUB OPTIONS

Write “pick up” or “decline” after the option.

• Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout - BUYOUT

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

Try to retain, or let go?

• Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019) => Resign / 2 years 25M
• Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019) => Resign / 1 year 7 million
• Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019) => Let go
• Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract) => Let go

José Abreu is coming, that’s the only sure thing we can say. I am OK with that. He has some intangibles. He is a decent option for 1B. Cheap. Knows the team. Well liked, and honestly, the free agent options aren’t that much greater. I personally like Nova. He is a perfect 5th starter. Durable and will throw more good games than bad ones. In 2019 the White Sox lacked pitching depth. Nova provides that in the same way Shields did but it won’t cost us Tatis Jr.

FREE AGENTS

List three free-agent targets you’d pursue during the offseason, with a reasonable contract. A good example of a bad idea:

No. 1: Yasmani Grandal (4 years, $80 million). This is a no brainer. His teams seem to always make it to the post season. Pitchers can’t have a better receiver. He hits from the left side. Can DH. Can hit.  There are few catchers like him. He was part of my off season plan last year, and here he is again.

No. 2: Nicholas Castellanos (2 years, $30 million). Can you believe Castellanos is just 27 years old? He can hit. He can’t field, but he can hit, and has done so for various years. He is 27, he won’t get decline soon. We can use Engel in later innings for defense if the White Sox are winning.

No. 3: Corey Dickerson (2 years, $15 million). He can provide a left hand hitter to balance this heavy RH roster.

No. 4: Will Smith (2 years, $15 million). A left hand reliever who has constantly produced good results. Veteran presence.

No. 5: Zack Wheeler (3 years, $ 85 million). One of the best “affordable” starting pitchers available. We should forget signing Cole (The Yankees need a quality starter, and they have a lot of payroll available to get Cole and Strasburg, so forget it)

TRADES

No. 1: Trade Dane Dunning, Rutherford, Kelvin Herrera, Zack Collins to the Blue Jays for Ken Giles. Smoak will be gone, and the Jays are trading to load up on starters for the future.  They do have a great catcher in Jenzen, but maybe they could use Tellez and Collins as their new 1B/DH combo. Both are LH though, and that could be an issue.  Ken Giles will replace Colome as the closer. He has 2 years of control left, and he was superb last year for the Jays. A bit of a health concern here. The Jays were trying to move Giles this year, so they will hear offers. Herrera could reinvent himself, but I think he won’t be a good reliever again. Rutherford is just Rutherford.

SUMMARY

Total payroll is projected for 135 million (excl. Castillo’s option). A little bit over 120 M goal, but quite frankly, Reinsdorf has been running low payrolls for several years in a row, and he has “saved” a few millions here and there, right? He can afford a little bit of extravaganza. This plan does not tie the White Sox with players for long term, so it fits the modus operandi. You might think, that’s a lot of starters.  There are seven starters under contract in this roster, but I project Kopech to be ease up back into form by taking the Sale route (relief). Same for Rodon, but they will start games at some point.  Pitchers always get hurt. It will be nice to have depth.  This team should win the AL central handily.