PREAMBLE
The White Sox are at the stage where a major jump is necessary to maximize our window of opportunity with the new core. It is time to contend for the postseason. However, I don’t believe the Sox have the will to spend big on top-tier free agents nor do I entirely believe top-tier free agents see the Sox as a preferable destination over an already-established contender. With that in mind, I’m sorry to inform you we are not going after Gerrit Cole, J.D. Martinez, Anthony Rendon or Yasmani Grandal.
My strategy does not involve the sexiest names on the market. Rather, it focuses on obtaining quality depth to ensure that most injury or performance potholes on next year’s roster won’t strand us short of the playoffs.
Finally, this is my first-ever SoxMachine post after following Jim (and all y’all) for years. I love the preseason project. Any critique is welcome-- you won’t hurt my feelings (only Rick Hahn can do that).
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Alex Colomé, $10.3M TENDER
Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M NON-TENDER
James McCann, $4.9M TENDER
Carlos Rodon, $4.5M TENDER
Leury García, $4M TENDER
Evan Marshall, $1.3M TENDER
Josh Osich, $1M TENDER
Ryan Goins, $900K NON-TENDER
CLUB OPTIONS
Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout DECLINE
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, or let go?
Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019) yes
Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019) yes
Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019) hell no
Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract) no
Following some other schools of thought, I’d try to sign Abreu to 2/$24M with a 3rd year club option of $6M. We need him next year, at least.
If we’re going to make it to the playoffs, we’ll need plenty of starting pitching depth in case of several contingencies:
- Kopech not totally ready for the 1st half.
- Rodon not available for the 2nd half.
- Random injury or performance implosion (Lopez or Cease).
Therefore, I’d try to resign Nova for 1 year/$8M. We know what he can do in Chicago, and he’s a huge upgrade over our 5th starters last year.
FREE AGENTS
C Robinson Chirinos 1 year/$6M- With Castillo gone, we need reliable catching depth for our young pitching staff. Chirinos isn’t a bad defensive catcher, and he can be a 2 WAR guy.
LHP Madison Bumgarner 3 years/$45M- This is the quality, brand-name free agent that we have a chance and the means to sign. We also need a lefty in our starting rotation. I’d be delighted with Jose Quintana as an alternative (if his option were not picked up), but I don’t see the Cubs as having any other choice.
OF Marcell Ozuna 2 years/$25M- This is the tier of outfielder the Sox should have been shooting for last year. Again, he provides corner OF depth we need to insure against the right field disaster of last year. He can hit for power, get on base, and run.
TRADES
DH/RF Jorge Soler for Blake Rutherford, Gavin Sheets, and Bryce Bush. It seems Soler figured it out this year. He’s left-handed, can hit the long ball and OPS around .900. He’ll be a free agent in 2022. He’ll cost a lot less than J.D. Martinez, and Jose Abreu will buy him an iPad. I’d plug him in at DH or use as platoon depth in RF occasionally. This trade was accepted on baseballtradevalues trade simulator (thanks to Ted Mulvey for mentioning a great resource in his plan). The Sox won’t miss the guys we trade in the short run, and the Royals can start reloading for a different window of contention.
SUMMARY
This plan addresses several of our weakest areas-- starting pitching, outfield depth, DH, and catching depth. Soler and Ozuna could easily add 60HR, not including developments out of Jimenez or Moncada. While none of the moves involve acquiring superstars, they do provide quality upgrades to each position and form a backstop against moderate injury and performance issues. Furthermore, none of the moves constrain the Sox financially in the long-term.
The total spending projecting (including buyout) is right around $108M. If some of my salary projections were light, there’s some buffer. And maybe there’ll be something left to spend in at the trade deadline, when finally the Sox are buyers again!
Position Players (lineup): ($42.58M)
RF Ozuna ($13M)
SS Anderson ($4M)
1B Abreu ($12M)
3B Moncada ($550K)
DH Soler ($4.7M)
LF Jimenez ($2.33M)
CF Robert ($550K)
2B Madrigal ($550K)
C McCann ($4.9M)
Position Players (bench): (11.1M)
C Chirinos ($6M)
DH/1B/C Collins ($550K)
OF/INF L. Garcia ($4M)
INF Mendick ($550K)
Starting Pitching: ($26.2M)
RHP Giolito ($550K)
LHP Bumgarner ($15M)
RHP Cease ($550K)
RHP Lopez ($550K)
RHP Nova ($9M) (eventually Kopech, $550K)
If we ever see Covey or Detweiler, something has gone horribly wrong.
Bullpen: ($27.8M)
RHP Colome ($10.3M)
RHP Marshall ($1.3M)
RHP Cordero ($550K)
RHP Johnson ($550K)
RHP Herrera ($8.5M) (IL for LHP Rodon until he’s ready, $4.5M)
LHP Bummer ($550K)
LHP Osich ($1M)
LHP Fry ($550K)
I didn’t try to do a lot with the bullpen since I felt it was adequate for the goals we have next year. I realize some of the performances may not repeat, but the Sox have shown the ability to develop minor league relievers or find help externally.
Herrera was definitely bad last year. He keeps a roster spot to prove himself again in the first half until Carlos Rodon is ready. If he does well, we could trade him or bump a lower performer off the roster. If Rodon does return in 2020, I’d love to confine him to a bullpen role. We need a bullpen lefty, and we know he can pitch to at least 3 batters. The best case scenario would be a high-end swingman for the 2nd half.
