Soxsupporter’s Offseason Plan

10:08 PM CDT on October 25, 2019

PREAMBLE
First of all, this is going to be realistic (well somewhat). Cole and Rendon ain't walking through that door so I'll look at other additions that are more possible. The Sox should be in contention into September in 2020 and this offseason needs to show the fans the front office is making moves to make that happen. So, here goes.....

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Write “tender” or “non-tender” after each player and their projected 2020 salaries. Feel free to offer explanation afterward if necessary.
Alex Colomé, $10.3M Tender
Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M Non tender
James McCann, $4.9M Tender
Carlos Rodon, $4.5M Tender
Leury García, $4M Non tender
Evan Marshall, $1.3M Tender
Josh Osich, $1M Non tender
Ryan Goins, $900K Non tender

CLUB OPTIONS

Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout Decline

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, or let go?
Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019) Retain
Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019) Let Go
Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019) Let Go
Hector Santiago (made $2M in 20

FREE AGENTS
Jose Abreu (2 years, $25M)

Abreu is coming back. There is no doubt about that. He still can produce, as witnessed by his league leading RBI totals on an awful offensive lineup. He will serve a similar role as last year rotating between 1B and Dh. Put him a position with better hitters in front of him and he will continue to produce even if he starts regressing a little.

Yasmani Grandal (4 years, $75M)

This needs to be the Sox top target this offseason. They need a left handed bat and a guy who can catch the young staff. If you look at the numbers from McCann the 2nd half of last season, you can expect his numbers to be closer to that than his surprising 1st half numbers. That being the case, we will need some pop from the catchers position and Grandal can supply that.

Corey Dickerson (2 years $20M)

After paying for Grandal the Sox won't be in on any of the top three guys for RF (Puig, Castellanos, Ozuna). I decided that Grandal would be the bigger impact to the lineup than one of the right fielders mentioned above. Dickerson has power, hits from then left side and can play a decent right field. He is coming off a fractured foot and missed the last two months last season so many of the teams may have questions on him. This deal helps elevate the right field position for the Sox while also giving Dickerson the everyday play he'd want to show he still can produce. Giving him a 2 year deal lets him have the opportunity to get one final big contract should he perform above expectations while keeping the spot warm for Walker. Plus I'll need the money to pay for a trade piece I'll explain later.

Alex Wood (2 years, $28M)

Alex Wood is coming off injury and has something to prove. He probably won't get a better offer than the $12M the Sox offer. He's a lefty starter to help balance the staff and has performed in the past when healthy. He's only 28 but has quite a bit of postseason experience he can share. The contract is a little high but could still be a steal if he pitches like he did pre injury. The Sox know they need to add depth to the rotation but also won't be in on Cole, Bumgarner or Wheeler as too many big market teams will be bidding on their services. Wood fits perfectly for the team at this point.

Brock Holt (2 years, $8.5M)

Holt was a former high prospect in the Red Sox farm. He's got playoff experience and can play anywhere. He'll be our starting 2B on opening day. When Madrigal gets the call then Holt will slide over to the super utility role. He can play all over the infield and outfield. Bats left so fits another need in balancing the lineup. He may cost as much as Yolmer but should provide more pop when he's in the lineup. This is a good, under the radar move. It's time to upgrade the bench and this definitely fits the bill.

TRADES

Jonathan Stiever/Zach Collins to Pittsburg for Chris Archer

Archer is a former elite pitcher for the Rays. Since he was dealt to the Pirates he hasn't been the same guy. Put him on a team with a promising future and playoff aspirations and he can become the guy he was with the Rays. he's only due $9M this year and $11M next year so fits in Reinsdorf's budget. With this team he won't need to be the ace like he was expected to be in Pittsburg and should slot in as a #2 starter behind Giolito. It's not the big name ace that we want but it's a solid upgrade in the depth of the starting staff. Pittsburgh gets a controllable and young future starter plus a young left handed catcher and/or 1B with a high OBP. Things they're looking for as they'll start another rebuild this offseason.

Dunning/Dahlquist to the Rockies for Charlie Blackmon

The Sox need a DH. While JD Martinez would be the obvious top target, there's no guarantee he opts out. Blackmon is becoming a liability in the outfield but still has a near elite bat. he can play the outfield when needed but this trade is made to slot him in as the primary DH for the Sox. His left handed bat along with the addition of Dickerson will balance the entire lineup. The Rockies are in need of pitching and Dunning, while coming off injury is still a fairly highly regarded prospect. Add in Dahlquist plus the fact the Sox will take on all of his salary and this deal makes sense for both teams. Also with the Sox taking on the entirety of his $21.5M salary, it means only being able to spend high on one quality free agent as seen above. If we add higher rated prospect then perhaps the Rockies chip in some money. But, in my scenario, I'm thinking the Rockies want to shed payroll and get a couple young prospects.

SUMMARY
This roster construction was done with a budget of the payroll at around $120M so not all holes were filled with the best options. So, within the self imposed budget constraints, all holes in the lineup and the depth to the pitching staff were filled and improved from last year. The 2 year deals to both Wood and Dickerson don't bind the roster down long term with the expected additions of guys like Steele Walker and Andrew Vaughn as well as pitching additions like Rodon, Kopech and Lambert hopefully coming down the pike.

The losses of Dunning, Stiever ,Dahlquist and Collins could turn out to be tough but in getting back a solid starting pitcher and an upper echelon left handed lead off bat was worth the risk. My biggest surprise is returning Palka as a DH and LH pop off the bench. He could be replaced by Yermin Mercedes depending on how they both perform in ST.

The rotation and bullpen should also get improved when kopech is ready to come back. It's possible he makes his way back out of the bullpen until injury or bad performance puts him in the rotation. Otherwise, Renteria and Coop will have to make some choices as to who to keep in the rotation once Kopech is ready. having too many starters and worrying about who to drop out is a much more preferable situation than having to bring back Dylan Covey or Banuelos or Despaigne to fill in. I think this roster contends for a playoff spot next year. The offense has been given major upgrades with Blackmon and Grandal and the starting pitching staff has been upgraded and given quality depth.

The bullpen did not get addressed as money was spent filling other issues that were desperately needed. The bench will improve once Robert and Madrigal join the team as that would put Brock Holt on the bench in a rotation of filling in for the regulars as well. The addition of Robert will put Blackmon as the primary DH and would put Palka back to the bench as a left handed bat to pinch hit or to use in place of Dickerson should an injury arise.

Not the ultimate dream roster we all hope for but it addresses some huge needs without going crazy on the budget.

I do not show neither Robert nor Madrigal on the roster on opening day and don't really expect Madrigal until much later in the season. Robert should be up by May.

The lineup on opening day should be as follows: