PREAMBLE
Okay, the White Sox have had young players post star-level seasons and several are still pre-arbitration. The financial flexibility is there, the money has been saved, it's time to spend the damn money already. On the one hand, it's a bit laughable that I'm submitting an offseason plan with a $150 million payroll. On the other hand, that would have been good for THIRTEENTH in the league in 2019, so as far as I'm concerned this is the level the team should be spending at compared to their peers.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Alex Colomé, $10.3M - Tender
- Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M - Non-tender
- James McCann, $4.9M - Tender
- Carlos Rodon, $4.5M - Tender
- Leury García, $4M - Tender
- Evan Marshall, $1.3M - Tender
- Josh Osich, $1M - Tender
- Ryan Goins, $900K - Non-tender
I don't think any of these are particularly surprising. While I'm not a huge fan of Colome at that figure, I prefer that to diving into the free agent market for a pitcher of similar caliber or giving him a multi-year deal for less AAV. Besides, the White Sox need to somehow make good on trading away a "catcher" who posted a 120 OPS+ in 2019. I've been a pretty ardent defender of Yolmer, but even I'm not going to defend giving a backup infielder that kind of scrape. Conversely, I'm not a believer in McCann, but he even in his down second half he provided enough value to justify that figure.
I considered non-tendering Rodon, but this team will need late-season reinforcements and depth, and even at that kind of money I like him as a depth piece. Leury's too useful as a Swiss-Army knife to let him walk, even if he's at best a capable fill-in at most positions. Osich and Marshall are both worth those meager sums, and Goins is redundant with Mendick around.
CLUB OPTIONS
- Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout - PFFFFFFFFFT!!!! lol
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019) - Re-sign, 2/$25 million
- Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019) - Let go
- Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019) - Wasn't he already let go?
- Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract) - Let go
Abreu didn't really justify a $16 million salary given his performance the last two seasons, but he's still worth keeping around at $12.5 million a season (roughly commensurate with a 1.5 WAR player) on performance alone, and there's no doubting his value as a leader on the team. Nova's recovered well from a disastrous first half, but I'm really not interested in bringing him back when his season numbers were generally mediocre overall and probably a best-case scenario for him.
Neither Jay nor Santiago is worth retaining at pretty much any price, though Santiago might be worth a minor league deal at least.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: Gerrit Cole, 10 years/$275 million (40/35/35/30/30/25/25/20/20/15), opt-out after four years. Yup, that's crazy years/money, and that's what it's gonna take to get Cole. If he exercised the opt-out he'd be going back into the free agent market with 6 years and $135 million remaining on his contract at age 33, so if he's good enough to use it, it means he's been REALLY, REALLY good. Heck, I'd even be willing to give an opt-out at year 3 if it gets him to sign.
No. 2: Zack Wheeler, 4 years/$60 million (15m x 4), vesting option for 1 year/$15 million (600 IP over first four years). Wheeler has finally put everything together the last two seasons, and while interest will be somewhat tempered by his injury history, I'm willing to give him what I believe will be a year more than other teams (with a vesting option) at a competitive AAV. He'll slot well into the middle of the rotation.
NOTE: If they can get Dallas Keuchel for the same price, I'd sign him instead, but I get the feeling he's going to get more.
No. 3: Yasmani Grandal, 4 years/$70 million ($17.5m x 4). The White Sox had the opportunity to sign him with almost zero competition last year for less money and didn't bother. Time to pony up and get him, because going to the well with McCann again just seems like a recipe for disaster.
No. 4: Corey Dickerson, 2 years/$20 million. Dickerson provides some decent left-handed pop and the ability to fake it in the outfield in a pinch at a price that fits in well here.
No. 5: Wade Miley, 2 years/$18 million. Yesterday's punch line is today's free agent target. Not a hugely durable guy, but somebody who can give you some credible innings to start the season and possibly transition to the bullpen later (or be traded given the relatively light money involved).
No. 6: Daniel Hudson, 1 year/$5 million, vesting option for 1 year/$5 million with 40 appearances. Hudson's had a solid bounce-back and is now icing opposing hitters in the postseason. The limited money involved is a testament to his significant injury history, but the vesting option is an appropriate enticement, I believe.
TRADES
No. 1: Trade Dylan Cease to the Seattle Mariners for Mitch Haniger. The Mariners look like they're ready to go scorched earth on their roster, and I absolutely want Haniger in right field. He's a decent defender and solid hitter, but he suffered some bad injury luck in 2019 (and was still far more valuable than any White Sox right fielder). Dickerson exists as an emergency backfill if needed. I originally tried to work this trade by headlining it with Dunning and Adolfo, but I just don't think that gets it done with other suitors likely in on the deal. I'd sooner let go of Cease (who I think will be limited by durability and inefficiency in his career, just my opinion) than deal from the Robert/Kopech/Vaughn/Madrigal tier. If necessary, I'd throw in a low-level prospect or two, but pretty much all the real value is in Cease.
SUMMARY
Starting Lineup
CF - Luis Robert ($550k)
3B - Yoan Moncada ($600k)
LF - Eloy Jimenez ($2.33m)
DH - Corey Dickerson ($10m)
1B - Jose Abreu ($12.5m)
C - Yasmani Grandal ($17.5m)
SS - Tim Anderson ($4m)
RF - Mitch Haniger ($3m)
2B - Nick Madrigal ($550k)
Bench
UT - Leury Garcia ($4m)
C - James McCann ($4.9m)
IF - Danny Mendick ($550k)
OF - Adam Engel ($600k)
(C/1B/DH - Zack Collins) ($550k)
(Note: I am slightly concerned about the lack of depth in center field, and will feel a lot better if Luis Basabe can get to AAA in short order.) Also, if they can sign Yolmer for cheap (say, $2 million), then I'd prefer him to Mendick. Collins will be lefty roster depth and ideally get enough playing time to show what he can do at the MLB level. I prefer the late-inning bat to yet another reliever, especially with the three-batter minimum rule coming up, which will keep Ricky from burning through half his bullpen in an inning, but I included an extra reliever below just to show the choice available.
Rotation
RHP - Gerrit Cole ($40m)
RHP - Lucas Giolito ($600k)
RHP - Zack Wheeler ($15m)
LHP - Wade Miley ($9m)
RHP - Reynaldo Lopez ($600k)
A bit righty heavy, but I'm not concerned given the quality of the pitchers overall. Lopez has been durable, but if he can't maintain a better level of consistency instead of his feast-or-famine approach (weighted on the famine side) then some combination of Kopech, Rodon, or Dane Dunning will be waiting to take his place. Of course, if we can get Haniger for Dunning+, then pencil in Cease instead of Miley and save the money.
Bullpen
RHP - Alex Colome ($10.3m)
LHP - Aaron Bummer ($550k)
LHP - Jace Fry ($575k)
RHP - Daniel Hudson ($5m)
RHP - Evan Marshall ($1.3m)
RHP - Josh Osich ($1m)
RHP - Kelvin Herrera ($8.5m)
(RHP - Jimmy Cordero)
I feel pretty good about the first four pitchers on this list (I'm expecting a good bounce-back season from Fry), and I'm reasonably optimistic about the rest of them. Cordero should still have options and can start in the minors, but if they decide to carry another reliever instead of another bat (i.e.-Collins) then he's the first guy I'd pluck from down there. Also, one could simply not retain Osich and roll with Jimmy Guns instead.
TOTAL PAYROLL: $154,055,000
