PREAMBLE
It's time for the Sox to start competing again. The young core performed very well last season, and now is the time to make a push with the young core and some free agents to win the division and advance in the playoffs. However, I don't want to cash in on any prospects. I really see the remaining prospects as two groups: people I don't want to trade (Robert, Madrigal, Vaughn, Kopech, Cease to the extent he is still a prospect, Stiever, Walker) and prospects that have less current trade value than they should (Collins, Rutherford, Basabe, Adolfo, Gonzalez, Dunning, Burdi, Hansen and Burger to the extent they are not broken). My plan is to fill out the major league roster with at least decent major league players at every position and let the underperforming prospect depth stew in the minor leagues in hope that some will figure it out and rebuild their value. I am confident at least some underwater prospects will have good years next, and the Sox can reassess if they want to hold on to those players or trade some to improve the major league team.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Alex Colomé, $10.3M -- Tender. His peripherals were crazy last year, but he has always been a solid contributor as a major leaguer. He might give less value than his salary next year, but I doubt he totally falls off a cliff.
- Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M -- Non-tender. My boy is gone, but I am sure he'll find a place in the major leagues somewhere next season.
- James McCann, $4.9M -- Tender. Good season and he is a good clubhouse presence.
- Carlos Rodon, $4.5M -- Tender. I think he can add some value next year as a swing man or insurance policy for bad Cease or Lopez starts. I see him as more a bullpen piece that can go 2-4 innings.
- Leury García, $4M -- Tender. Good bench player, and I actually have him as the lefty side of a platoon in righfield.
- Evan Marshall, $1.3M -- Tender. Good reliever and cheap.
- Josh Osich, $1M -- Non-tender but invite to spring training.
- Ryan Goins, $900K -- Non-tender.
CLUB OPTIONS
- Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout -- Bye-out.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019) -- Retain for 2 years/ $30 million with a third year option. This is happening, and Abreu is still a good run producer and clubhouse guy. Things could get a little complicated in that second year in my scenario if Vaughn is bang down the door to get into he major leagues, but those are one of those good problems.
- Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019) -- Retain 1 year / $5 million. He is Kopech's placeholder for me then the long man in the bullpen.
- Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019) -- Goodbye.
- Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract) -- He may end up around either as a player or coach.
FREE AGENTS
Madison Bumgarner 4 years / $72 million. He has got loads of big game experience and is someone to rely on to pitch well down the stretch of the season and into the playoffs. He has had a jump in his hard hit rate over the last couple of seasons, but the velocity is still what it was in his prime. Coop is a cutter whisper, and the Sox should be able to get the best out of him. I think the Sox should have one lefty in the rotation too.
J.D. Martinez 4 years / $100 million. The Sox hand out their first 9 figure contract to one of the best hitters in baseball. He has good power and his walk rate is around 10%. He mashes lefties and is above average against righties for his career. He has hit over .300 each of the last 3 seasons. The last year or two of the contract could end up as over pays, but he is basically a DH only at this point in his career. He should be able to keep his legs strong and keep his power over the length of the contract. Even with some dips in his power, he is still probably a .300 hitter and an above average bat in the lineup. Vaughn, Abreu, and Martinez may all command DH/1st base time in 2021, but the Sox should be able to figure that all out.
Kole Calhoun 1 year / $12 million. When I heard Steve Stone talking Calhoun up last season, I scoffed at the idea of signing him. I still would for anything more than a year. However, as mentioned above, the Sox are competing and have no other real options in rightfield. He plays defense well, which the Sox need with Jimenez in left, and I think he can keep his power numbers up. I am platooning him with Leury taking the at bats against lefty starters. Calhoun is below average against lefties, and Leury hits very well against lefties. This should maximize the offensive production in right, and Leury and Calhoun are both above average defenders for that position. Going from negative WAR in right to a pretty solid bet for 3 WAR will make a big difference for the Sox.
Travis d’Arnaud 2 years / $8 million. He is an excellent pitch framer and ended up with league average hitting for the season after a bad start with the Mets. He is not much of a platoon partner with McCann, but I am going to keep Collins around to get some at bats at catcher against righties. The Sox have not had a catcher who can grab strikes for a while, and I think he would work well with the younger pitchers like Cease and Lopez that need all the strikes they can get.
TRADES
I wouldn't make any actual trades for my actual offseason plan, but hand to the fire I'd suggest this:
Luis Basabe, Alec Hansen, Jack Burger for Ken Giles. Maybe swap out Dunning for Basabe. Giles only has one year of control left. He is a great closer though and I would think would be the same money as Colome or a little more in his last year of arbitration. Basabe's hand injury hurt him last season, but he is still probably a good prospect. Hansen and Burger are lotto tickets, but may eventually end up capitalizing on their talent. Something like this could be a fair haul for 1 year of Giles.
SUMMARY
Here is how the lineup would break down once Madrigal and Robert come up:
C - McCann/d-Arnaud/Collins
1B - Abreu
2B - Madrigal
SS - Anderson
3B - Moncada
LF - Jimenez
CF - Robert
RF - Caloun/Garcia
DH - Martinez
Bench: Garcia, Engel/Mendick, d'Arnaud, Collins
I would suggest this batting order, though there are a lot of possible batting orders
1 - Moncada
2 - Anderson
3 - Martinez
4 - Jimenez
5 - Abreu
6 - Robert
7 - Calhoun/Garcia
8 - McCann/d-Arnaud/Collins
9 - Madrigal
The rotation
1 - Bumgarner (he can take on the number 1 spot since he is making the most money)
2 - Giolito
3 - Kopech/Nova to start
4 - Cease
5 - Lopez or Rodon or Nova if Lopez stumbles
Bullpen
CL - Colome or Bummer
LP - Bummer
LP - Fry
RP - Herrera
RP - Marshall
RP - Cordero
At the start of the season, the Sox will have 2 bullpen spots for whoever of Hamilton, Frare, Ruiz, Burr, Johnson, Burdi, or non-roster invitees looks the best coming out of spring training. Nova, Lopez, or Cease move into the long man role when Kopech comes back. Rodon could displace whoever is not performing well in the bullpen or rotation when he comes back too.
Payroll math: $60 million with arb players minus Yolmer, Osich, Goins salaries is $51.9 million. Plus $.5 million for Beef buyout, $15 million for Abreu, $5 million for Nova, $18 million for Bumgarner, $25 million for Martinez, $12 million for Calhoun, $4 million for d'Arnaud is $131.4 million. I went over by $11.4 million, but Calhoun and Nova are 1 year commitments. I am going to justify the overspend because it is not long term money.
