PREAMBLE
Going into the offseason there seem to be two main approaches as to how the Sox should go about things this winter.
- Be aggressive and acquire high level talent in the hopes of potentially being this years 2015 Cubs that improved by 24 wins by adding a franchise altering free agent like Gerrit Cole to go with a star rookie like Luis Robert turbocharging the team a la Jon Lester and Kris Bryant.
- Find some patchwork players that will semi fill holes in a more incremental plan where being .500 next year can be seen as a success.
Of these two options #1 seems incredibly unlikely, and #2 leaves us in pretty much the exact same position as after the 2016 season. Hooray! We won 79 games or whatever, but with Moncada, Giolito, and Anderson only having 3, 3 and 4 years remaining of control left, that’ll be even less than the 3, 4 and 5 Sale, Quintana and Eaton had when the rebuild began.
The Sox only put up 69 Pythagorean wins. They could improve on that by 10 wins next year and another 10 the year following and still not make the playoffs. Between the Yankees, Astros, Rays, A’s, Twins, Indians and Angels (provided they spend like expected) there are 7 teams that are looking between potentially historic to really good the next few years. I’d bet on at least 5 of those teams alone getting to 90 wins both years without even accounting for a potential random breakout from the Rangers or Blue Jays. The odds of sneaking in with an 88 win team like they did in 2008 is really low with parity being the scarcest it’s been in decades throughout the AL. Barring extensions, the Moncada-Giolito “championship window” could be closed before that core even makes the playoffs.
Add it all up and I went in to this exercise fully expecting that I was going to pursue a different route.
- Keep the rebuild going for a little bit longer. Cash in on Moncada and Giolito while their value is at their highest for players who’s timelines more or less align with Eloy and Robert’s.
I was ready to try and justify to everyone why they should be excited about my Moncada for Wander Franco and Giolito for Gavin Lux deals.
However, the more I got into it I found that there was just enough value and upside in a couple different free agents and trades, that combined with some extensions could put the team within one standard deviation of “luck” from the postseason starting now, extend the window by a year or 2, cost no top 10 prospects from the farm system, and have a final budget in the neighborhood to be approved by cheap, old Jerry.
My plan turned out boring and similar to a lot of others. Sorry ahead of time for trying to be sold on Yasmani Grandal yet again.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Write “tender” or “non-tender” after each player and their projected 2020 salaries. Feel free to offer explanation afterward if necessary.
•Alex Colomé, $10.3M Tender
•Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M Non-Tender, but re-sign later
•James McCann, $4.9M Tender
•Carlos Rodon, $4.5M Tender
•Leury García, $4M Tender
•Evan Marshall, $1.3M Tender
•Josh Osich, $1M non tender
•Ryan Goins, $900K non-tender
CLUB OPTIONS
Write “pick up” or “decline” after the option.
•Welington Castillo: $8 million/$
How come there is no option to trade with international money so that Reinsdorf can have even more money that he’ll never use?
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, or let go?
•Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019)
Sign to 1 year 17 million dollar contract with club option for same price on the second year with 2 million dollar buyout (I wouldn’t have bid against myself for him, but I guess that’s my punishment for not turning my homework in on time)
•Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019) Let go
•Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019) Let go, but only if he’s not really good friends or relatives with Mookie Betts
•Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract) Let go, but probably see you in June.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1 and 2: Sign Yasmani Grandal and Zack Wheeler to 4 year $74 million deals with $15 mil the first year and $19mil each of the last 3 years.
Grandal is as a good as catcher as anyone in the sport. As others have stated he not only helps the offense, but all the young pitchers by grabbing strikes as well. Getting him is imperative as it’s nearly impossible to get a guy projected to put up all star level performance in this price range.
Wheeler is more risky when you factor in his injury history and limited track record. Still when it comes to the Sox history in Free Agency I would much rather roll the dice on a guy with injury questions than production questions. There are also people in the game that think with improved coaching he could be even better. Don Cooper may no longer be the best pitching coach in the game, but it’s possible he could squeeze more out of him. In all, even if he misses a quarter of his starts and regresses to a 4 war pitcher when he’s on the bump he’d still be well worth this contract.
No 3: Sign Travis Wood to a 1 year/ $6 million deal
Again I’d rather take a chance on a guy with upside rather than watch yet another higher floor/lower risk acquisition quicksand through said floor.
No 4: Sign Yolmer Sanchez to a 1 year/$4 million deal
I think he’s worth $6 million easy, but the market seems to disagree. Still he won a gold glove at an up the middle position this year and was a league average bat the year before. If he could combine the two he’d be a well above average, almost all star. If not, he’s still fine depth and provides quality insurance against an injury to Moncada or rough start for Madrigal.
No 5: Sign Mitch Moreland to a 1 year $4 million deal, with a club option for the second year at $6 million with a 500k buyout.
Hey at least if the Sox miss here like they did with all their other left handed 1B/DH partners the last decade the cost won’t be so painful.
No 6: Sign Dillon Betences to a 1 year $10 million deal
If he’s healthy, he ought to be a steal at this price. I needed to add at least one arm to the bullpen and wanted to continue my focus on taking chances with guys that have had injury histories rather than production problems in the past.
No 7: Sign Drew Pomeranz to a 2 year $14 million deal. The first year is for $6 million and year 2 is for $8 million.
Last year he was bad as a starter and dominant as a reliever. He’d be coming out of the pen in this scenario. He wouldn’t be the first guy who saw a sudden jump stick by changing roles and finding out if that’s the case with him works at this number.
TRADES
Just one: Package Alec Hansen, Zach Burdi, Bryce Bush and Tyler Johnson along with Kelvin Herrera to the Dodgers for Joc Pederson
Pederson is projected to make $8.5 million in his final year before free agency. My best guess says that puts him around $10 million in surplus value as a 3 WAR corner outfielder who needs a platoon.
They can decide if they want to try and tweak Herrera or just outright release. Regardless I tried to come up with $15-20 dollars in prospect value to balance this trade out. I focused on guys who I thought the Dodgers would view as not having the right.......nurturing environment up to this point in their pro careers and could reach their potential within their renowned player development system. Burdi and Hansen have been top prospects in the past and Bush has the traits, as a younger northern state high school product, that analytic front offices tend to value more. I’d argue each prospect has roughly $5 million in value making the trade worth while. It helps them with both their outfield and 40 man roster crunch as well.
For the Sox it fills their gaping hole in right field, without giving up a top 10 prospect in the system, and might even save a little cash.
EXTENSIONS
I cheated by throwing in this category, but adding years years of control to the players with the brightest futures may be the most important thing the White Sox can do this offseason.
****Im no expert on projecting arbitration numbers a couple years into the future. Let me know if you think I’ve erred too high or low for Gio or Moncada***
No 1: Sign Luis Robert to the Eloy Jimenez deal from last off season.
Eloy didn’t seem to really want an extension too badly, and with already one big payday Robert doesn’t seem to be a great candidate either. Still the Jimenez contract was viewed as not particularly team friendly compared to others that have been signed. Get Robert signed up and on the field opening day.
No 2: Sign Yoan Moncada to a 4 year $47 million deal with a club option for the 2024 season at $24 million with a $2 million buyout. The structure would be $2 million this year, $11 million for 2021, $15 million for 2022, and $19 million for 2023.
Moncada as well may not be interested in an extension for the same reason as Robert above. Still with this deal he only gives up one year of free agency and sees a pay raise this year. I ballparked what he would potentially make in arbitration as a little north of $50 million, and this comes in just south. Who knows, but maybe a little haircut is worth the guarantee.
No 3: Sign Lucas Giolito to a 5 year $57 million dollar deal with a club option for the 2025 season at $24 million with a $2 million buyout. The structure would be $2 million this year, $9 million for 2021, $11 million for 2022, $15 million 2023, and $21 million for 2024.
Giolito does seem like a great bet to be interested in an extension based off his difficulty finding success and health thus far in his career. At the same time he also strikes me as a well thought out guy who might view his situation as an opportunity to show an example of not using fear used against him to be had for a bargain
This contract seems like a fair middle ground. Yes it covers 2 years of free agency instead of 1, but only one is an option year. With TJ on the resume getting an extra year of guaranteed cash might be a positive for Giolito.
SUMMARY
Vs RHP
3B Moncada
LF Jimenez
DH Abreu
RF Pederson
SS Anderson
C Grandal
CF Robert
1B Moreland
2B Madrigal
Vs LHP
3B Moncada
SS Anderson
1B Abreu
DH Grandal
LF Jimenez
RF Robert
2B Madrigal
C McCann
CF Engel
Other bench
Leury
Yolmer
Not a bad looking lineup, no? That’s 2 All Stars, and a bunch of guys who should hover around league average for their positions with some possible youthful breakouts sprinkled in. The order of could be debated, but I want to utilize the two platoons put in there.
This would be the deepest squad in over a decade. Yolmer starts at second the first 2 weeks of the season until it’s Madrigal time. If Nick struggles at all off the bat Yolmer can spell him once or twice a week against tough right handed pitching. Engel is a great fit with Pederson. He replaces Eloy defensively late in games as well. Leury will see the field plenty. It’s impossible to think not one of Robert and Eloy will make it through the entire year unscathed from injury. McCann can catch Gio once in a while too if we’re going through a stretch versus a lot of righties.
SP
Giolito
Wheeler
Cease
Wood/Rodon
López/Kopech
RP
Betences
Colomé
Bummer
Pomeranz
Fry
Marshall
Fuller
Cordero
In a tale like the lineup, the hope would be the top 2 combine at an all star level while the depth would take care of the rest. I don’t know if there is 1 guy I really love in the slots 3-5, but between all of them I think you could string together a league average back of the rotation.
The backend of the bullpen has 4 guys I’d happily count on even though it might be lacking one truly dominant guy. Middle relief could be an issue, but there are still enough semi interesting guys in the system floating around I don’t see it being that big of a deal. We might even have a starter or 2 to spare come the middle of the season if it does turn into a big problem.
Total payroll
I come in a hair over budget at $123 million. If push comes to shove I just let Colomé go and see what $7 million gets for an arm out of the pen these days. Still I don’t see the Sox letting him go so quickly so I think going over a little is just and more likely.
My best guess is that this team would project for roughly 85 wins with a fair amount of variance when looking at the rotation and expected production from younger guys. Neither being a surprise playoff team or falling just short of the .500 would be particularly surprising to me.
What would have me the most excited though is how is team would project into the future. Everyone projected to be an above average starter going forward, with the exception of Pederson, is under control for at least four years. The hope would be that we still have enough in the farm with Rutherford, Adolfo, Gonzalez, Walker, Basabe, Vaughn, Sheets, Collins, Zavala and Mendick to replace Pederson, Moreland, Yolmer, McCann and maybe even Abreu next year or package them to fill holes in other areas.
Let’s bring competitive baseball back to the southside of Chicago next year and enjoy it for at the very least the first half of the new decade.
