Adam’s Big Offseason Plans

PREAMBLE

Going into the 2021 off-season, the White Sox are ready to blow that contention window wide open. They have the talent and payroll flexibility most teams dream of. Their young cost-controlled players are all starting to flash and are still very cheap. The time to strike is now. My mindset going into this offseason is address the teams biggest need, starting pitching. How do we address it? By throwing $$$ at it and finding value in the backend of the Free Agent market. Although, Starting Pitching is the biggest off-season need for the White Sox, there are other holes to fill. Rather than split the Free Agent $$$ between the multiple roster holes, I have decided to use the $$$ to fill the Starting Pitching and leverage the talent depth to fill the other roster holes. One of my biggest complaints about the White Sox front office is, they usually try to use half-measures to fix their roster issues (Nomar Mazara comes to mind). I try to avoid that here. Well enjoy the read, let me know how I screwed up!

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

• Nomar Mazara:$5.6M | $5.9M | $5.7M – Non-Tender
• Carlos Rodón:$4.5M | $4.5M | $4.5M – Rework/Extend – 2 years/$6M; $8M 2023 Club Option / $1M Buy-Out
• Lucas Giolito:$2.5M | $5.3M | $2.5M - Tender
• Reynaldo López: $1.7M | $2.2M | $1.7M - Tender
• Evan Marshall:$1.3M | $1.9M | $1.4M - Tender
• Adam Engel:$1M | $1.4M | $1M - Tender
• Jace Fry:$800K | $1M | $800K - Tender
• Yolmer Sánchez:Uncertain – Non-Tender

 Arb-eligible: $10.3M Total Committed (1st Option)

I chose the 1st option because it’s cheapest and I am lazy and took the easy way out. These are pretty non-controversial except for one maybe two players. I am not nostalgic or sentimental, my reasoning for keeping both Rodon and Lopez is, cheap Starting Pitching is hard to find and MLB teams never make it through the season using only 5 Starters. My extension for Carlos Rodon makes sense for Carlos and the White Sox. The White Sox would rather not pay him $4.5M this year, I think $3M is a little easier to swallow, especially if you have 3 total years of control left (Also, his 96MPH in his last few outings intrigued me). For Carlos, he isn’t going to make $4.5M on the open market, which is where he will land if he doesn’t except the extension. This will allow him to make at least $2.5M more in his career and possible rehabilitate his reputation.

 CLUB OPTIONS

• Edwin Encarnación:$12M - Decline
• Gio González:$7M ($500K buyout) - Decline
• Leury García:$3.5M ($250K buyout) – Pickup

Club Options: $4M Total Committed

Not much explanation is needed here, Leury provides versatility and depth, important to any roster.

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

• Alex Colomé (Made $10,532,500 in 2020) – Let Go
• James McCann(Made $5.4M in 2020) – Let Go
• Jarrod Dyson(Made $2M in 2020) – Let Go

Sadly, Colome and McCann will have to find their paydays elsewhere. Resources will be too tight to commit multiple years to either of these valuable vets.

 COACHING STAFF

• Manager: Sandy Alomar Jr.
• Pitching coach: Matt Zaleski

Sandy is my favorite candidate to take over the White Sox club house. He has been sitting behind and learning from the great Terry Francona, who incorporates baseball acumen and statistics, as well as any skipper in baseball, here is hoping the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree. Also, Sandy has a lot of post season experience as the bench coach for the Indians, which satisfies my post season experience expectations. Pitching Coach, honestly I threw a dart at the wall.

FREE AGENTS 

• Marcus Stroman – 5 years/$110M - $22.5M AAV
• Brett Anderson – 1 years/$5M; $8M 2023 Club Option / $1M Buy-Out

Free Agents: $27.5M Total Committed

Marcus Stroman is my preferred Free Agent target, he has been doing it for a long time and is very consistent. Couple that with his high ground ball % and I think we have a winner for pitching at Sox Park. Brett Anderson is a craft veteran lefty, he will either fit nicely in the 4/5 spot in the rotation or in long relief. His ground ball % is ideal for Sox Park.

TRADES

Trade: Dane Dunning and Luis Gonzales to Los Angeles Angels; For Shohei Ohtani and Mike Mayers;  approved at the following link. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

• Mike Mayers – $800K / $1.5MM / $800K
• Shohei Ohtani – $2.1MM / $3.0MM / $2.1MM (using hitter model)

Trades: $2.9M Total Committed

I was excited about the stroke of genius. I will admit trading Dane Dunning stings a lot, he is a quality major league arm, that should have a very nice career ahead of him. That being said, Dunning is nothing more than a 4/5 start in a good rotation, his value will never be higher. Ohtani had a down year and has been plagued by injury but there is no denying his talent. He has the talent to be a super star. I would not nix Ohtani pitching for good but I would stress the importance of taking the year off and giving the arm a break. This would keep him in the lineup and off the IL.
SUMMARY

Overall, I spent $10.3M in arb, $4M in Options, $27.5M in Free Agency, $2.9M in Trades and the $77.8M starting point; gets us to a grand total of $122.5M payroll. I feel this plan fills that roster holes very efficiently. If I undervalued Stroman or Anderson, there is some wiggle room to add a few $$$. The Ohtani trade solves the ever existing right field issue and the Sox get a nice arm in Mike Mayers. Andrew Vaughn is my eventual DH but if the Sox prefer to start him in the Minors, Ohtani, Eloy and Abreu can split time at DH until he arrives. The 26 man roster squeezed out Crochet and whoever doesn’t win the 5th Starting pitching spot between Cease, Lopez and Kopech. They all have options, so they can pitch in AA or AAA to start the season, waiting for their shot. This roster is pretty sound from top to bottom, an extremely good offense, nice bench depth, good starting rotation with nice depth in the minors a few long relief arms, the Bullpen is elite. I am not sure who will be the closer but there is enough talent in the pen to let that playout in spring.