PREAMBLE
This year showed that our window is officially open. The Sox now need to maximize the window of opportunity with the new core. Similar to last year, I think the Sox best leverage themselves by focusing on the free agent market. Without the endless minor league depth the likes of the Padres, the Sox would need to trade near-term talent for near-term talent (a zero sum game, in my opinion). The catch, however, is that the Sox aren’t printing free agent money like the Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox. Despite this, I feel the Sox can shop on the top shelf of the free agent market without necessarily going after Dom Perignon ‘59 (Bauer and Springer).
My premise is that the Sox need real solutions for RF and 1-2 starting pitching spots. They don’t need a DH, though-- they just need legitimate DH production out of the roster. Maybe there is a solution to our spendthrift equation that involves:
- Playing a rookie at DH (and one of the OF/1B as backup)
- Playing our 2016 1st round draft pick w/ 120 career plate appearances for 40 games at catcher
- Promoting from within at closer
Finally, thanks to our SoxMachine crew for providing this excellent source of annual entertainment. This is easily my favorite time to post. Any critique is welcome-- you won’t hurt my feelings (only Rick Hahn can do that).
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Nomar Mazara: $5.6M | $5.9M | $5.7M NON-TENDER
Carlos Rodón: $4.5M | $4.5M | $4.5M NON-TENDER
Lucas Giolito: $2.5M | $5.3M | $2.5M TENDER
Reynaldo López: $1.7M | $2.2M | $1.7M TENDER
Evan Marshall: $1.3M | $1.9M | $1.4M TENDER
Adam Engel: $1M | $1.4M | $1M TENDER
Jace Fry: $800K | $1M | $800K TENDER
Yolmer Sánchez: Uncertain NON-TENDER
CLUB OPTIONS
Edwin Encarnación: $12M DECLINE
Gio González: $7M ($500K buyout) DECLINE
Leury García: $3.5M ($250K buyout) PICK UP
I know a lot of folks say Leury is expensive, but I think he will get a fair amount of playing time with his versatility in the field and switch-hitting ability. Let’s hope his headfirst sliding ways are behind him, though.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, or let go?
Alex Colomé (Made $10,532,500 in 2020) LET GO
James McCann (Made $5.4M in 2020) LET GO
Jarrod Dyson (Made $2M in 2020) LET GO
In a scenario where Jerry is willing to extend the budget over $150M, keeping Colome would be my first move. However, as I elaborate below, I think they can promote from within next year.
COACHING STAFF
Manager: Tony La Russa
Pitching coach: Dave Duncan / Kyle Boddy
I’ll admit I don’t believe this will happen or is in any way wise. But growing up going to Sox games in the late 70s and enjoying my first great Sox teams in the early-mid 80s, I’ve never got over seeing La Russa let go to the A’s. And if you hire Tony, you know you’re getting Dave.
Did you know that Dave Duncan is already working for the Sox as a pitching consultant? If we’ve got two guys in their late 70s running for President, why can’t two guys in their late 70s with 3 World Series rings manage the Sox?
I really like Greg’s idea about Kyle Boddy, though. Maybe Dave Duncan is the mentor he needs to take over as pitching coach eventually.
FREE AGENTS
RHP Marcus Stroman 3 year/$60M- The free agent class makes this one somewhat obvious to me. He’s not Trevor Bauer, but he is a top-shelf starter and ground ball machine. I just hope the Mets don’t put a QO on him out of spite.
LHP Jose Quintana 1 year/$6M- This is the Gio signing of last year: back-end of the rotation depth and a lefty in our starting rotation. A championship team needs insurance against unfortunate injury or poor development out of our young starting pitching. I’d be delighted with him back on the Southside.
OF/DH Marcell Ozuna 3 years/$60M- This is a repeat from my plan last year, and it would have been fun to imagine the offensive destruction of Ozuna in our lineup. He can hit for power, get on base, and run. Who cares if he’s a less-than-elegant outfielder? Leury and Engel are there for late-inning options or the occasional Giolito no-hitter. And he serves as part of a formidable DHydra along with Vaughn, Eloy, and Abreu.
TRADES
I can’t wrap my mind around what the Sox have to trade that doesn’t expose our lack of minor-league depth or pieces we need right now. And there are a few guys (Sheets, Rutherford, Burger, Mercedes) who missed out on redemption this year to show other teams they might be worth something in a trade. I figure trades this Winter are probably only useful to the Sox for marginal role players.
SUMMARY
This plan addresses our RF/DH production needs in one move; and it positions the Sox as likely leaders in home runs next year. They will continue to do formidable damage to left-handed pitching. It also uses free agency to get some rotation depth that won’t depend on major development out of 3/5ths of the rotation. On the other hand, my plan leaves calculated risks at backup catcher and the closer role. And we get to find out what Andrew Vaughn can do.
My total spend projects right around $140M, which splits the difference between the two budget targets. If Jerry is feeling it this offseason, he could address backup catching, go bigger on the bullpen, or find help mid-season if some part of the roster is falling apart..
Position Players (lineup): ($75.6M)
RF Ozuna ($20M)
SS Anderson ($7.25M)
1B Abreu ($16M)
3B Moncada ($6M)
DH Vaughn ($563K)
LF Jimenez ($3.5M)
CF Robert ($3.5M)
2B Madrigal ($563K)
C Grandal ($18.25M)
Position Players (bench): ($6.0M)
C Collins ($563K)
OF/INF L. Garcia ($3.5M)
OF Engel ($1.4M)
INF Mendick $565K)
Starting Pitching: ($49.8M)
RHP Giolito ($5.3M)
LHP Keuchel ($18M)
RHP Stroman ($20M)
LHP Quintana ($6M)
RHP Dunning ($563K)
Bullpen: ($9.3M)
RHP Heuer ($563K)
RHP Marshall ($1.9M)
RHP Cordero ($574K)
RHP Cease ($563K)
RHP Lopez ($2.2M)
LHP Bummer ($2M)
LHP Crochet ($563K)
LHP Fry ($1M)
An alternate approach keeps Colome and sends payroll over $150M. However, last year was a great opportunity to find out the depth behind Colome, and I feel ok with Heuer/Bummer in the closer slot. Plus, the Sox have shown the ability to develop minor league relievers. Starting the season, Cease and Lopez are long-men, but honestly they all fight for the 5th starter spot.
