Coming off a successful 2020 season, the White Sox enter 2021 trying to make the playoffs in consecutive years for the first time in franchise history. It’s a real bummer –but also kinda White Sox-- that two of the holes the front office attempted to fix last offseason (OF, DH) are again holes this year. On the other hand, I couldn’t be happier with how Dallas Keuchel and Yasmani Grandal worked out. Yet, the success in 2021 will likely hinge upon multiple hits in free agency while at the same time making strides with what they have or known commodities hitting the open market. This plan attempts to show what I think could be a likely path for the team, not what I’d like them to do (sign ALL the good players!).
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Nomar Mazara: Non-tender.
- Carlos Rodón: Non-tender.
- Lucas Giolito: Tender: $5.3M
- Reynaldo López: Tender: $2.2M
- Evan Marshall: Tender: $1.9M
- Adam Engel: Tender: $1.4M
- Jace Fry: Tender: $1M
- Yolmer Sánchez: Non-tender. Bring back on minor-league deal.
I really hope that Rodón can figure it out. It doesn’t seem like it’s going to be with the White Sox, however, especially at $4.5 million: a sum I cannot see him receiving on the open market. Reynaldo López is cheap enough that I don’t mind bringing him aboard for one more year to see if there’s anything left to be unlocked.
CLUB OPTIONS
- Edwin Encarnación: Decline.
- Gio González: Decline, for the $500K buyout.
- Leury García: Decline, for the $250K buyout.
Leury, obviously, is the tough call here. He does offer positional versatility, but I feel that in-house options (Mendick, Engel), used judiciously, are adequate. For what it’s worth, I wouldn’t be surprised in real-life if he came back to the Sox on a cheaper deal.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Alex Colomé: re-sign, 2 years, $22 million. I expect I’ll take some heat for this in the comments, but no matter how you slice it, Colomé has gotten the job done as closer. It’s entirely possible that an in-house option such as Heuer or Bummer (or Crochet, if they indeed go the Chris Sale route in 2021) can slip into the ninth-inning role and be equally as effective, but you never know until it’s go-time. 11 million per year is only a slight raise from what he and the Sox agreed to last offseason, but it also comes with the certainty that he’s guaranteed through his age-33 season. If Chairman Jerry is willing to open the pocketbook a touch further, I’ll tack on a million and another year for 3 years, $36 million total to sweeten the deal.
- James McCann: Let go. Much as the Grandal/McCann pairing was a delight to behold in 2020, McCann has earned his right to the open market and a starter position. If I’m the Sox, I keep the lines open with his agent just in case, but I’d imagine he’ll get a nice deal from a team that doesn’t already have a quality starter penciled into the lineup.
- Jarrod Dyson: Let go. He served the role he was brought in for during the latter half of 2020.
COACHING STAFF
- Manager: Sandy Alomar, Jr. It’s surprising that Alomar doesn’t yet have a managerial position given the interview rounds he has made over the years, including with the White Sox. He seemed to acquit himself well as acting manager this season, and has been part of a good organization in Cleveland since 2012.
- Pitching coach: Matt Zaleski. Zaleski and Everett Teaford are probably both reasonable choices for this role, as they’ve worked extensively with the younger members of the Sox pitching staff. I believe James Fegan on The Athletic’s podcast mentioned several pitchers who credited Zaleski with their success with pitch and approach development. Pitch and approach development? Seems like it might be useful to apply to a couple of different pitchers currently in the majors. Sign me up!
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: Marcus Stroman (4 years, $75 million). Stroman has been a consistent innings-eater since 2016, giving the Blue Jays/Mets between 180-200 innings per season (2018 notwithstanding). His ERA and FIP are in general agreement with one another, he doesn’t give up a lot of dingers and he’s 30, to boot. It seems like he’d slot in nicely mid-rotation.
No. 2: Jackie Bradley, Jr. (3 years, $24 million). Before we get to the Bradley: I could very well see the White Sox actually signing Joc Pederson for the outfield. They’ve targeted him for a few years, he’d make a good platoon partner with Adam Engel and, aside from 2020, brought good power numbers. All that said, I like Jackie Bradley, Jr. for the role. Defensively, he’s an upgrade from Mazara or Pederson and he’s coming off a nice 2020 season. The rub lies in some of his Statcast metrics that highlight concerning trends. Where you feel he goes from here probably informs whether you like or hate this move. I think he can be had for $8 million per year, a bit down from his 2020 salary.
No. 3: Nelson Cruz (1 year, $8 million). I know, I know. Where have we heard this before? “White Sox sign aging slugger to DH contract that doesn’t work out.” And it’s true! Cruz will be entering his age-40 season (he turns 41 on July 1, 2021) and seems like a likely candidate to regress. But the thing is, he continues to defy time: evidently powered by naps, Cruz *only* hit 16 home runs with a .992 OPS in 53 games with the Twins. I’ll take that from the DH position! Should he absolutely fall off a cliff –something that seems to happen to Sox DHs not named Thomas or Thome—my guess is that it will still have been enough time for Andrew Vaughn to show he’s ready for the majors, something the organization continues to tout. Vaughn likely timeshares with Abreu at first/DH.
No. 4: Tyler Flowers (1 year, $3 million). On a human level, I really hope McCann cleans up in free agency, which leaves the White Sox without a viable backup. At 35, Flowers is no longer an every day starter (and hasn’t been with the Braves, either), and with Grandal getting the bulk of the starts, he doesn’t need to be.
TRADES
To be frank, I had difficulty coming up with many reasonable-sounding trades this year. Outside of Jonathan Stiever and Garrett Crochet, the organization doesn’t seem to have much in the way of impact talent that could bring back an exciting name. While Kopech is exciting, the Sox would be trading him at the nadir of his value. Perhaps had there been an even partial minor league season, some of the younger guys like Dalquist or Thompson could have been added, but alas, no team has seen anything. The Sox seem keen on keeping Crochet, and not giving up on Cease. Stiever by himself (or Stiever plus Some Guys) seems like it’d be hard to swing. That said, I think if Stiever can return to form in whatever the minor leagues look like next season, he’d easily be the centerpiece in a trade, hopefully augmented by promising performances from other players.
SUMMARY
In sum, here’s the 26-man roster for the 2021 championship season:
Lineup
SS Tim Anderson
LF Eloy Jimenez
1B Jose Abreu
DH Nelson Cruz
C Yasmani Grandal
3B Yoan Moncada
CF Luis Robert
RF Jackie Bradley, Jr.
2B Nick Madrigal
Bench
C Tyler Flowers
IF Danny Mendick
IF Yolmer Sanchez
OF Adam Engel
Rotation
Lucas Giolito
Dallas Keuchel
Marcus Stroman
Dane Dunning
Dylan Cease/Reynaldo Lopez
Bullpen
Alex Colome
Aaron Bummer
Codi Heuer
Matt Foster
Garrett Crochet
Jace Fry
Jimmy Cordero
If, as the British say, my maths are correct, this payroll comes in at $139.1 million. If it’s more than that, hopefully the Chairman forgot his calculator at home.
Again, I tried to approach this plan in mind with what the White Sox might do. One big contract (to a pitcher, no less; they did try with Wheeler last offseason, though), and multiple smaller-ish signings that hopefully plug the obvious holes. Two starting pitchers absent from the last rotation spot: Michael Kopech and Jimmy Lambert. At the very least I’d expect Kopech to contribute at some point during the season once he’s ramped back up, and the same (hopefully) goes for Lambert. They’d likely fill into that fifth/sixth starter spot currently occupied by Cease and Lopez. I’d imagine injury and ineffectiveness will rear its ugly head at some point during the season. As mentioned above, Andrew Vaughn likely contributes in some capacity, as well.
Go out and win that AL Central, fellas.
