PREAMBLE
"We the People of White Sox Nation, in order to form a more perfect Franchise, establish dominance, insure sustained success, provide for the common defense (on Twitter), promote our relative sanity, and secure the Blessings of Championships to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish these SoxMachine Offseason Plans."
In other words, the time is now. Rumor has it that Reinsdorf and the Sox might actually be spending in an offseason where those who choose to spend will be rewarded with far more available riches than in recent offseasons. Because of the challenge – and the fact that I find it important to be conservative with White Sox spending – I chose the $135M budget to play with. With that, let’s begin.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
For the sake of argument, in my plan, I took the highest estimated arbitration value for each of these players.
Nomar Mazara: $5.6M | $5.9M | $5.7M – Non-Tender
I created around 5 plans for this offseason. In a couple of those plans, Nomar Mazara was on the White Sox in some form. Unfortunately for him, this final version was not one of those plans. I still don’t hate the move from last offseason, but I do think the White Sox have better options here – even if they are planning to take a risk.
Carlos Rodón: $4.5M | $4.5M | $4.5M – Non-Tender
I REALLY wanted to tender Rodon a contract – I love this dude. I think there’s a chance Rodon is back in some form with the White Sox, given the potential for a cheap contract in an overcrowded pitching market this offseason. But, for this plan, money was tight and I couldn’t justify $4.5M to Rodon.
Lucas Giolito: $2.5M | $5.3M | $2.5M – Offer 4 year, $48M extension
Breakdown: $6.5M / $9M / $12M / $16M / $18M Club Option
Lucas Giolito is entering arbitration for the first time in his career, and this is typically around the time that young starting pitchers sign an extension with their team (if they so choose to sign one). I wrote about this recently at Sox On 35th, and I wrote that I would offer Giolito a 4 year, $48M extension with a fifth-year option that would bring the deal to 5 years, $66M. This would be the highest AAV and guaranteed salary of all the comparable extensions shown in my article. Is it an underpay overall? Yeah (a truly “fair deal” is likely around 4 years, $74M). But would this deal guarantee he makes much more than he likely would in arbitration? Absolutely. So, it’s risk and reward here for Giolito. Either way, I think Giolito extension talks should be a priority for the Sox.
Reynaldo López: $1.7M | $2.2M | $1.7M – Tender
Reynaldo Lopez is incredibly frustrating to me. Unless he makes vast changes, he will likely never hit his full potential. His tender here, however, later leads to his departure from the team.
Evan Marshall: $1.3M | $1.9M | $1.4M – Tender
Hard to pass up on a reliable arm like Marshall at a price under $2M. No-brainer for me.
Adam Engel: $1M | $1.4M | $1M – Tender
Adam Engel is best utilized as a fourth outfielder. That’s no knock on him, as he’s really made himself a high-value player for the Sox. The Sox roster will be at its best with him on it in 2021.
Jace Fry: $800K | $1M | $800K – Tender
The White Sox only have one other LHP in the bullpen (Bummer). Fry at $1M is a high value add.
Yolmer Sánchez: Uncertain – Already Gone
In no world did I want Yolmer Sanchez back – heck, bring on Tim Beckham. We as fans need to do better at distancing ourselves from players of yester-year. Yolmer Sanchez is a great start.
CLUB OPTIONS
These have already been processed; the only one I didn’t agree with was Leury Garcia’s option being picked up – as I preferred my proposed plans where I instead paid his buyout – but $3.5M isn’t too bad for 2021. I just think the Sox could’ve done better at the utility spot here.
Edwin Encarnación: $12M – Decline Option
I didn’t like the idea of his signing because I thought he would block the Sox from evaluating Zack Collins. I was correct, and as an added bonus, he hit under .200. A 60-game season for a historically slow-starter was a recipe for disaster.
Gio González: $7M ($500K buyout) – Decline Option
Glad he finally pitched in a Sox uniform. Also glad to move past him and upgrade.
Leury García: $3.5M ($250K buyout) – Exercise Option
See Above. Not thrilled, but Garcia is a useful bench piece and obviously can play in a pinch.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Alex Colomé (Made $10,532,500 in 2020) – Let Go
I don’t think Colome is going to make $10M in a SUPER overcrowded RP market. Because of this, I am open to bringing Colome back – and I have a feeling La Russa would like an established closer. Even so, because RP value is likely going to be down across the board, I feel I can upgrade from Colome while still finding an established closer.
James McCann (Made $5.4M in 2020) – Let Go
One of my favorites over the past two seasons, James McCann has played himself out of a backup role on the South Side. If his market doesn’t develop I’d be happy to bring him back, but I have a feeling he’s the second catcher off the board after Realmuto.
Jarrod Dyson (Made $2M in 2020) – Let Go
Solid idea that never really materialized into much.
COACHING STAFF
The hiring of Tony La Russa and the reported hiring of Ethan Katz have already been announced. While I don’t exactly have warm and fuzzy feelings for La Russa currently, I am thrilled about Ethan Katz. His forward-thinking, players-first mentality will help to create an organization-wide pitching philosophy that is in practice from the minor leagues all the way up. Katz’s resume speaks for itself, and I am excited about what he brings to the dugout.
FREE AGENTS
There are a lot of different ways I looked at attacking free agency. From going pitching-heavy to bullpen-heavy, and everything in between, I promise that literally almost every option was considered. Below each name, I will list other names I was looking at for each spot as well, in the spirit of creating conversations.
George Springer, OF: 5 years, $110M ($20M/$23M/$23M/$22M/$22M)
It’s about time the White Sox make a major splash in free agency. With the Mets showing every indication that they are going to be spending long-term, it made it more difficult for me to consider short-term options here – for example, if I thought Michael Conforto would available next offseason, I would’ve chosen a short-term option. However, Springer – while on the wrong side of 30 – hasn’t shown signs of slowing down, and his career 129 wRC+ against right-handers (151 wRC+ in 2020) is far more important than trying to find a left-handed hitter for RF. We must not become so enamored by handedness that we forget the main goal: the Sox need someone who hits RHP well. Springer is it. He also has a career BB% of 11.1%, which would go a long way in helping this team. As a 31-year-old, his future is likely in right field anyway, where he can still provide quality defense (5 OAA in RF in 2019). His StatCast profile from last season makes me feel better about any age concerns I might have heading into 2021 as well.
All things considered, this would be a home run signing for the Sox and would complete the lineup for years to come.
Others Considered: Joc Pederson, Andrew Benintendi, Alex Verdugo, Kole Calhoun, Robbie Grossman, Mark Canha
Shin-Soo Choo, DH: 1 year, $3.5M
I don’t see a world in which Andrew Vaughn starts the season on the South Side. If he does, it’s because he signed a team-friendly extension that allows him to start with the team – and the team has no concerns that he’s never hit pitching above High-A. In order to remedy the situation for a couple of weeks/months to start the year, enter Sox killer Shin-Soo Choo. Choo will be 38 heading into next season, and his age and lackluster defense will relegate him to DH no matter where he signs. Because the NL is likely to adopt a DH in 2021, he might have a larger market than I think. However, the appeal of signing with a playoff-bound team at his age is likely more appealing. He’s not exactly putting up terrible numbers either, and his StatCast profile was solid, yet unspectacular this season. Most importantly, he was still hitting fastballs last year (.367 xwOBA, .544 xSLG), leaving me unconvinced his bat has slowed down that much.
Once Vaughn is ready, he can be a LH power bat off the bench – when’s the last time the Sox truly had one of those?
Others Considered: Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley, Nomar Mazara (in the exact same role)
Jason Castro, C: 1 year, $3M
A nice little preview of what happens to Zack Collins on my roster happens here. I like Collins a lot, and I think he will be valuable for someone who has the ability to give him consistent at-bats. I don’t think it’s the White Sox, which is why the Sox will need to get someone more suited for the role. Castro is a solid left-handed bat who provides above-average framing metrics. That’s all the Sox should be looking for in a backup – hopefully, they can build up a few homegrown catchers for the end of the Grandal era.
Others Considered: Tyler Flowers, Jeff Mathis, Zack Collins
Trevor Rosenthal: 2 years/$14M ($6.5M/$7.5M)
Look at that, I spent money on the bullpen! Besides being one of few players who actually expressed excitement at the White Sox hiring La Russa, Rosenthal was a spectacular reliever last season, and his StatCast profile showed it.
Rosenthal will be the heir to the closer role that was held by Alex Colome. He has experience as a former closer, and I believe that if I’m spending $7M on the bullpen, I’d prefer someone with Rosenthal’s pure stuff.
This $7M was either going to be spent on a fifth starter or a reliever. I decided on a reliever obviously, and I’ll explain why later.
Others Considered: Alex Colome, Blake Treinen, Trevor May, Brad Hand
TRADES
Alright, we’ve gotten through free agency and I still haven’t done anything to address the starting pitching. At least not yet I haven’t…..
White Sox Acquire SP Joe Musgrove and RP Richard Rodriguez from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for SP Jonathan Steiver, RHP Andrew Dalquist, SP Reynaldo Lopez, and C Zack Collins
Hello, White Sox #3 starter. Musgrove has been in the league for a while now and has two years remaining on his contract with the Pirates. He has been a serviceable starter throughout his career, with a career 4.33 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 22.3% K%, and 5.8% BB%. However, Musgrove took a huge leap in 2020, posting a 33.1% K% (albeit a 9.6% BB%), 3.86 ERA, 3.42 FIP, and the lowest hard-hit % against in his career (32.3%). His StatCast scorecard is a thing of beauty as well.
The problem with Musgrove has always been his pitch-ability. His motion hurts my arm, and at times, he’s struggled to stay on the field. However, given the StatCast metrics, as well as the fact that Ethan Katz has been named the new pitching coach, I’m pretty confident in the Sox’ ability to keep Musgrove on the solid path he found in 2020.
Richard Rodriguez is also an interesting name in the bullpen. Rebuilding teams don’t need bullpen arms – you should get whatever value you can for solid bullpen arms. Rodriguez, 30, is more than just solid – in 2020, he had a 36.6% K%, 5.4% BB%, 2.70 ERA, and 2.85 FIP in 23 innings. Based on his StatCast scorecard, he is an intriguing case of high-spin, high-strikeout, but hard contact against. However, his expected numbers remain low (.270 xWOBA, .366 xSLG).
Rodriguez would be a great – and cheap – addition to the White Sox bullpen as a potential late-inning reliever, something the White Sox now find themselves full of. Rodriguez also has three years of team control remaining with arbitration. He could be a long-term stabilizer.
In return to the rebuilding Pirates, I would send a couple of intriguing arms in Steiver and Dalquist who can help both now and in the future. In addition, Reynaldo Lopez is a low-risk, high-reward addition if the Pirates can unlock his potential. In Zack Collins, the Pirates receive a catching prospect who, though not as sparkly as some they might desire more, would be given the opportunity to thrive with a full-time role – something he has excelled at in the minor leagues.
Would the Pirates take it? Depends on how much they value two years of Joe Musgrove. I would be willing to go as high as including Cease in this deal but would drop Steiver. However, I think there’s a good framework here that works for both sides. The Sox have the pieces to pull off a move like this; it's just about putting it all together.
Others Considered: Brandon Woodruff, Lance McCullers, German Marquez
SUMMARY
Starting Lineup:
1) Anderson - SS
2) Springer - RF
3) Grandal - C
4) Abreu - 1B
5) Jimenez - LF
6) Moncada - 3B
7) Robert - CF
8) Choo - DH (replaced by Vaughn)
9) Madrigal - 2B
Bench:
1) Engel - OF
2) Garcia - UT
3) Castro - C
4) Mendick - IF (replaced by Choo)
Starting Rotation:
1) Giolito
2) Keuchel
3) Musgrove
4) Cease/Dunning/Kopech
5) Cease/Dunning/Kopech
Projected Bullpen:
LHP - Fry
RHP - Cordero
RHP - Foster
RHP - Rodriguez
RHP - Marshall
SU - Heuer
SU - Bummer
CL - Rosenthal
Projected 26-Man Roster: $135.69M (Over Budget, $690K)
Alright, so I went a little over budget, but if I can't convince my owner to spend an additional amount approximately equivalent to a rookie contract, I'm not a very good GM.
Overall, I'm pretty happy with this team (shocking, I know). The offense, once Vaughn is added, is deeper than I really ever remember it - though I'm only 23. The bullpen doesn't even include Garrett Crochet, and I'm sure the Sox will pick up some non-tendered arms in December. There are already at least 3-5 arms that could stake a legitimate claim to the closer role.
If there's one area I feel is weaker, it's obviously SP. Adding Musgrove adds necessary stability, but if Cease doesn't figure things out and/or Kopech needs more time than expected to get ready, the White Sox could find themselves short an arm again. Because of this, I would sign a starting pitcher or two on a minor league deal.
In the end, I had $7M to play with and needed to decide if I was going to spend it on Trevor Rosenthal or someone like Garrett Richards. I think Richards will be a great pickup for some team, and up until a few days ago, my preference would've been to spend on Richards. However, with the hiring of Ethan Katz, I feel confident in his abilities as a coach to help Cease find his command at the major league level and help Dane Dunning and Joe Musgrove take the next step in their careers. Regardless, the White Sox should ensure they sign someone to a minor league deal to beef up the rotation depth.
With $150M, I certainly would've signed at least one more starter (or gotten creative and thrown a lot of money at Bauer) and tendered a contract to Carlos Rodon. I think under a new pitching coach with the pitch metrics I saw in September, Rodon could be given a chance in Spring Training with the team. If there is no improvement, then cut your losses at the end of Spring Training and move on. Low-risk, high-reward situation.
In the end, it's all a numbers game when you're on a budget. No matter what, I would find it very hard for this team not to win at least 90 games. This Sox would be prepped to add a SP at the deadline if necessary.
So, what do you think? Let me know! Thanks as always to SoxMachine for doing this!
