PREAMBLE
I've been working on this for over a week. Every time I tried to fix the weaknesses on this roster while staying within a jerrybudget, I either came up wanting or I had to empty the farm of everything that might have value and might one day prevent a full-scale collapse as the current stars age out.
The goal shouldn't be to create a sure-fire World Series winner in 2022 because there are no such guarantees. Just look at the Dodgers this year. The goal should be to produce a consistent contender, one that can catch fire in October and win it every now and then. With that in mind, I held on to all but 1 (or maybe 2) of the prospects. Instead I spent Jerry's money to paper over the failings of the organization.
A real Offseason Plan Project should start with a total overhaul of the organization, starting with Kenny and Rick. The scouting, the development, the analytics all need to be brought up to speed. Why don't we ever turn so-so prospects into Jose Ramirez or Corey Kluber? With the head start provided by the trades of Sale, Eaton, and Quintana, we shouldn't be at this crossroads. But here we are. The core is getting more expensive. We have holes at 2B, RF, DH, backup C, 1 or 2 rotation spots (with questions about what to do if any of the starters get hurt. The success of the bullpen is skewed by Hendriks. The lineup is too right-handed. We don't play solid-enough defense. We can't hold runners. We strikeout too much.
Instead of using our prospect depth to reconfigure some of these issues, we're left with going to the free agent market to pay liberally for fixes or pay illiberally for pseudo-fixes that predictably don't work.
I have put together a $200M payroll that spits on artificial limitations. And even at that I wish my roster were better. A year from now will we be hoping we can dump Bumgarner or Lynn? Will the bullpen still be too inconsistent? Will I regret turning to Burger and/or Rojas at 3B?
I think the alternative to my payroll is to blow it up and start all over. Trade Moncada, Anderson, Grandal, Giolito, Hendriks, Bummer. Unlike 2016/2017, this team would have a stronger base of major league talent (Robert, Jimenez, Cease) and some minor leaguers with upside (Rodriguez, Montgomery, Kath, Kelley, Vera, Colas, Cespedes). A new management team could work with that.
I'm not ready to blow it up. I'm ready to spend! Follow me down...
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
The guys I non-tendered are easily enough replaced on the open market. I didn't want to be tied down to any of them.
- Lucas Giolito: $7.9M - tender
- Reynaldo López; $2.8M - tender
- Evan Marshall: $2.3M - non-tender
- Adam Engel: $2.2M - tender
- Brian Goodwin: $1.7M - non-tender
- Jimmy Cordero: $1.2M - non-tender
- Jace Fry: $1M - non-tender
CLUB OPTIONS
- Craig Kimbrel: $16M ($1M buyout) - decline (I can't trust him and don't want to pay someone to take him.)
- César Hernández: $6M - decline
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Leury García (Made $3.5M in 2021) - let go
- Carlos Rodón ($3M) - QO, then sign to Trooper Galactus' contract -2022: $10 million2023: $14 million option, $8 million buyout, option vests at 100 IP2024: $18 million option, $6 million buyout, option vests at 100 IP and 200 IP total in 2022-23
- Billy Hamilton ($1M) - let go
- Ryan Tepera ($950K) - sign for 3 yrs./$12.M
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: Marcus Semien (5 years, $140 million - 23, 28, 28, 33, 28). Plus defense and plus power at second base. I saw a site speculating he'd go to SF for 5 and $125. I beat that by enough that he should spurn the Bay Area.
No. 2: Michael Conforto (5 years, $80 million). He's left-handed and only 29.
TRADES
No. 1: Trade Yoán Moncada, Dallas Keuchel, Jared Kelley, Micker Adolfo, Zack Collins, and $10M to Arizona for Madison Bumgarner, Carson Kelly, and Josh Rojas. Arizona isn't going to contend next year or the year after. They don't need to pay an aging pitcher that much over those two seasons. They free up Madbum's money, get a superstar who will be under contract and still a superstar when they might be good again. They get the Sox' best pitching prospect to add to their impressive stable of prospects. Collins will fill out a roster. Perhaps they can tap into his strengths. Adolfo is a flyer. Keuchel is a reasonably priced innings eater for 1 season. Josh Rojas is a younger Leury. He played significant innings at 2B, SS, and OF (mostly RF). Plus he played some 3B. He has some speed, a little pop, and will take a walk. The names could be played with, but these are the ones I came up with.
SUMMARY
SP
Giolito – 7.9
Lynn – 18.0
Cease – 0.7
Bumgarner – 23.0
Rodon 10.0
Kopech – 0.6
Starting pitching cost - 60.2
RP
Hendriks – 13.0
Bummer – 2.5
Tepera – 4.0 (3 yrs/12)
Crochet 0.6
Lopez – 2.8
Ruiz – 0.6
Burr/Foster/Whomever – 0.6
Relief pitching cost - 24.1
C
Grandal – 18.25
Carson Kelly – 3.0
Catching cost - 21.25
IF
Abreu – 18.0
Anderson – 9.5
Burger – 0.6
Josh Rojas – 0.6
Semian – 23.00 (5yrs/140 – 23, 28, 28, 33, 28)
Infield cost - 51.7
OF
Jimenez – 6.5
Robert – 6.0
Conforto – 16.00 (5 yrs/80)
Engel – 2.2
Vaughn – 0.6
DH
Sheets – 0.6
Outfield and DH cost - 31.9
Buyouts and Kick-ins
Kimbrel – 1.0
Keuchel – 10.0
Total 26-man roster cost – 200.15
