2021-2022 Projections
When looking at free agents I tend to believe the best way to go is either top of the market or to go hunting in the value bin. Neither approach is something the Sox have shown a consistent ability to do so they must get creative with their talent acquisitions.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Lucas Giolito: $7.9M - Tender
- Reynaldo López;$2.8M - Tender
- Evan Marshall:$2.3M – Non-Tender; re-sign to minor league deal with 2023 option for $2.0M
- Adam Engel:$2.2M - Tender
- Brian Goodwin:$1.7M – Non-Tender
- Jimmy Cordero:$1.2M - Tender
- Jace Fry:$1M – Non-Tender
CLUB OPTIONS
- Craig Kimbrel:$16M ($1M buyout) – Pick up
- César Hernández:$6M – Decline
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Leury García(Made $3.5M in 2021) – Retain for 1 year $4.0M
- Carlos Rodón ($3M) – Extend qualifying offer with the assumption he declines and signs elsewhere
- Billy Hamilton($1M) – Let go
- Ryan Tepera($950K) – Retain for 2 years $10.0M
FREE AGENTS
None. Unless the Sox go for the top of the market, I do not see any significant value here. Keep the powder dry.
TRADES
This is the major opportunity for the Sox to improve through salary retention and betting on the come on a young player with pedigree:
No. 1: Trade Andrew Dalquist, Bryan Ramos, Jake Burger, and Jose Rodriguez to Oakland for Chris Bassitt and Ramon Laureano. With Rodón leaving in this scenario the Sox gain a reliable pitcher with a healthy track record to step in, albeit for only 1 year. Ramon provides more long-term control while tightening up the outfield defense in right field.
No. 2: Trade Craig Kimbrel, Wes Kath, and Jonathan Stiever to Los Angeles for Gavin Lux. This feels light on Sox’s end but the concept of going young with upside at 2B holds some appeal versus the free agent market. This scenario only plays out if Los Angeles wants to retain Trea Turner or Corey Seager long term. If I recall correctly the Sox were interested in Gavin during his draft year.
SUMMARY
Projected Roster:
C. Yasmani Grandal - $18.5M
1B. Jose Abreu - $19.7M
2B – Gavin Lux - $575K
3B – Yoan Moncada - $13.8M
SS – Tim Anderson - $9.5M
LF – Eloy Jimenez - $7.3M
CF – Luis Robert - $6.0M
RF – Ramon Laureano - $2.8M
DH – Andrew Vaughn / Gavin Sheets Platoon $575K / $575K
Bench – Adam Engel (OF) - $2.2M; Leury Garcia (IF/OF) - $4.0M; Zack Collins (C) - $575K
Starting Pitchers
- Lucas Giolito - $7.9M
- Lance Lynn - $18.5M
- Chris Bassitt - $8.8M
- Dylan Cease - $575K
- Dallas Keuchel - $18M
Bullpen
CL. Liam Hendriks - $13.3M
RP. Aaron Bummer - $2.5M
RP. Ryan Tepera - $5.0M
RP. Michael Kopech - $575K
RP. Reynaldo Lopez - $2.8M
RP. Garrett Crochet - $575K
RP. Jose Ruiz - $575K
RP. Jimmy Cordero - $1.2M
With this projection the total salary commitments come to approximately $166.6M for the year. This leaves some room for midseason additions primarily to the bullpen. I have come to the opinion any significant money spent in the offseason on relief pitching does not provide value and I would rather be in the position of making trades in July.
This structure does allow for internal pitching depth with Kopech in the pen and Jimmy Lambert in the minors. You can also see a situation play out with Crochet starting in the minors to build up innings while fortifying the bullpen in August and September.
My concern is with the position player depth. I worry about any potential injuries or decline to the infield. I do not see many alternatives in the minors or on the bench. A trade for a Joey Wendle type could solve some of these issues but I question the Sox’s ability to pull off another trade for a controlled asset.
