Welcome to the Sox Machine Offseason Plan Project.
If you’re new to the OPP, it’s something we’ve done the last several winters, before and while my sites had a post-it-yourself option. Last year’s Offseason Plan Project cleared 100 submissions by plenty, even amid all the pandemic uncertainty. This year's forecast is unclear for differences, but you can still go boldly.
- Copy the template below
- Paste it into the text editor on this page
- Fill it out* and submit it. Here is a good example from last year.
(*In case it isn’t etched into your memory like it is mine, Andy Gonzalez’s number is 26. You will need to know that.)
As always, the variable is the Opening Day payroll constraint. Last year, I set the limit at $135 million. Some complained it was too low, but then the White Sox spent $127,148,334, so the joke's on you, optimists.
The OPP is potentially complicated by larger events for the second straight year. Last October, it was the pandemic that made the 2021 schedule and spending unclear. This time around, the collective bargaining agreement between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association expires on Dec. 1, with a lockout very much on the table.
There's a chance that baseball could see dramatic transformations to service time and the greater picture of better compensating young players, but I don't think that needs to be taken into account. After all, the goal of the Offseason Plan Project isn't to predict what the White Sox will do, but to get a whole bunch of ideas about what they might/could/should do.
And in this case, the White Sox are at a fascinating juncture. TV ratings and attendance are surging, but the payroll obligations are rising as well. Meanwhile, they just won the AL Central by a convincing margin, but their four-game loss to the Astros in the ALDS suggests the 26-man roster requires optimization. While some of the particulars may change after a new CBA is reached, the conversation remains the same. We're discussing how the White Sox best go from B to C, if you count the rebuild as going from A to B.
Here’s how the White Sox’s payroll breaks down:
- Obligations: $126.85M to nine players.
- Options: $22 to two players ($1M in buyouts)
- Arb-eligible: $19.1M to seven players.
If the White Sox merely paid out their under-contract players and surrounded them with league-minimum types, you'd get a payroll of $136 million. The accounting by Cot's says the White Sox haven't even breached $130 million to start a season, so we're already in new territory. If the Sox retained every player and exercised every option, you're looking at a payroll north of $170 million. A consensus approach to who stays and who goes reduces the payroll to $145 million or so.
We're setting a payroll cap at $170 million would give the White Sox the 10th highest payroll, and that's where it seems like they should be given the World Series aspirations, not to mention the large expiring contracts coming off the books the next two seasons. As always, there's a little bit of wiggle room, whether it's because ownership might approve a slight budget expansion if the idea proves worthy, or because creative accounting could end up making the requisite room if they can keep the overage within a certain amount.
*Cot’s Baseball Contracts has the White Sox’ payroll obligations, as does Spotrac for a more granular, sortable approach to finances.
*MLB Trade Rumors has the list of 2021-22 free agents. Note the players with club options and exercise common sense when it comes to their potential availability.
*There are such things as dumb ideas, but the threshold is fairly high to cross it. Even an unworkable plan might have a great suggestion contained therein, which works for our goal of generating the highest number of feasible ideas possible.
*If you're critiquing, try to make it constructive, even for the leakier proposals. A fair percentage of the Sox Machine community joined the fray sharing an offseason plan. We're among friends here.
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PREAMBLE
Establish where you see the White Sox at this point, and your mindset/philosophy/strategy in putting together the roster for the upcoming season.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Write “tender,” “non-tender” or “rework/extend” after each player and their projected 2022 salaries. Feel free to offer explanation afterward if necessary.
- Lucas Giolito: $7.9M
- Reynaldo López; $2.8M
- Evan Marshall: $2.3M
- Adam Engel: $2.2M
- Brian Goodwin: $1.7M
- Jimmy Cordero: $1.2M
- Jace Fry: $1M
CLUB OPTIONS
Write “pick up” or “decline” or “rework” after the option.
- Craig Kimbrel: $16M ($1M buyout)
- César Hernández: $6M
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, extend qualifying offer, or let go?
- Leury García (Made $3.5M in 2021)
- Carlos Rodón ($3M)
- Billy Hamilton ($1M)
- Ryan Tepera ($950K)
FREE AGENTS
List three free-agent targets you’d pursue during the offseason, with a reasonable contract. A good example of a bad idea:
No. 1: Gordon Beckham (one year, $4 million). Let’s get him that fully vested pension and keep him out of the broadcast booth.
TRADES
Propose trades that you think sound reasonable for both sides, and the rationale behind them. A good example of a bad idea:
No. 1: Trade Yoán Moncada and Michael Kopech to Boston for Chris Sale. With Dallas Keuchel struggling and Carlos Rodón reaching free agency, the Sox need an impact lefty.
SUMMARY
If you finish up with a fairly firm 26-man roster, roll it out here. If you don’t, at least offer a sense of the payroll required, but more detail is always welcome.
What’s more important is describing how you settled on your plan — how or whether it resolves key positions, and what kind of position the White Sox occupy heading into 2022 and the following offseason.
Every plan may not be comprehensively sound, but even the shakiest ones may have one name or argument that hasn't crossed the minds of the rest of the community. The point of this exercise is to generate as many possibilities as possible, to see which players are the most popular, and how it ends up comparing to the White Sox's actual moves, if and when they're allowed to make them.
