I'm starting from the premise that our window is the next 2-3 years, and in order to get to the next level we need (1) to hit more dingers (elevate and celebrate), (2) a more dependable pitching staff, and (3) to plug giant sucking holes at 2B and RF. As Trooper noted, it becomes apparent pretty quickly that doing so within Jerry's presumed financial limitations is really darn hard and requires some heavy lifting to re-allocate resources. Thus, this plan is pretty trade-heavy, and although I ran all of the trades through www.baseballtradevalues.com and it didn't laugh at me (much), it's still undoubtedly unrealistic unless Jack Zduriencik or Jerry Dipoto takes over as GM (what is it with Mariners' GM's anyway?). While I managed to hang on to most of our core, as well as Kopech and Vaughn, there are a few fellas leaving that will undoubtedly be unpopular and the cupboard will be pretty bare by the end. But hey, as they say, flags fly forever, and it's not like the cupboard was full of caviar and lobsters to begin with.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Write “tender,” “non-tender” or “rework/extend” after each player and their projected 2022 salaries. Feel free to offer explanation afterward if necessary.
- Lucas Giolito: $7.9M (Tender)
- Reynaldo López; $2.8M (Tender)
- Evan Marshall: $2.3M (Non-Tender)
- Adam Engel: $2.2M (Tender)
- Brian Goodwin: $1.7M (Non-Tender)
- Jimmy Cordero: $1.2M (Tender)
- Jace Fry: $1M (Non-Tender)
CLUB OPTIONS
Write “pick up” or “decline” or “rework” after the option.
- Craig Kimbrel: $16M ($1M buyout) (the definition of decline)
- César Hernández: $6M (blech)
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, extend qualifying offer, or let go?
- Leury García (Made $3.5M in 2021) (let go to save a little dough, we'll have to roll with Romy)
- Carlos Rodón ($3M) (let go - too unreliable)
- Billy Hamilton ($1M) (you were fun, but good-bye)
- Ryan Tepera ($950K) (retain, 3 yrs/$9M)
FREE AGENTS
List three free-agent targets you’d pursue during the offseason, with a reasonable contract. A good example of a bad idea:
No. 1: Marcus Semien (5 years, $110M) This should be priority #1 and if it's the only thing we do, it would be a massive improvement. He makes so much sense offensively and defensively that I'm almost certain we won't end up signing him because we can't have nice things. This contract might not be rich enough, but if we had to go higher I would try to back-load it a bit for 2023 and beyond, when some of our other deals (Abreu) come off the books and we have a little more flexibility.
No. 2: Eduardo Rodriguez (3 years, $30M) E-Rod will end up replacing Keuchel at the back end of the rotation and provide a lefty arm in the rotation. He rolls a decent amount of groundballs (over 40%) and has a much better BB and K % than Keuchel. His fastball was down a tick last year, but according to Baseball Savant he's still pretty effective at limiting hard contact and getting swings and misses. If we wanted to save money, and were confident Kopech could step into the rotation next year (which I'm not, because he was inconsistent and they didn't stretch him out last year), this is one signing we could forego.
No.3: Collin McHugh (2 years, $4M) McHugh will give us another dependable arm in the Shoulder Shack that keeps the ball on the ground with the ability to make a spot start every now and then. And although he's right-handed, lefties hit only .163 off him last year. He only made $1.8M last year coming off a rough 2020, so it's possible this contract could be a little light.
No.4: Yan Gomes (2 years, $12M) Welcome to our new starting catcher! Wait, stop, where are you going? Come back! Well, I guess the cat's out of the bag, we have to say good-bye to Yas in order to give us some salary flexibility, so we're going to use it as an opportunity to upgrade the defense. Last year Gomes had fewer passed balls than Yas and was worth 5 DRS to Yas' -1. Plus Gomes has some pop (14 HRs) and won a world series with the Nats, so that's gotta be worth something.
TRADES
Now let's get crazy!
No. 1: Trade Dallas Keuchel and Micker Adolfo to the Mets for James McCann. This is a pure salary dump, which saves us $10M this year and $8M the next and gives us a semi-credible back-up catcher who enjoyed success here previously. McCann was not great defensively last year (-5 DRS) but he looks like Pudge Rodriguez compared to Zack Collins (-18 DRS). Sure that $12M we owe McCann in 2024 will look like dog vomit, but hopefully by then we don't care because we're still basking in the glow of at least one championship.
No. 2: Grandal, Jose Rodriguez, and Matthew Thompson to the Yankees for Joey Gallo. Yes, it hurts to get rid of Yas, but I don't like relying so heavily on an expensive 33 year old catcher who missed so much time because of nagging leg problems. Meanwhile, the Yankees seem ready to run Gary Sanchez and Joey Gallo out of town, and have seemingly unlimited resources to absorb Yas's contract. We fill our RF hole for at least next year with a big bopper who plays solid defense on a reasonable contract (Spotrac has him at $9.5M, it's $10.2M per MLBTraderumors).
No. 3 Garrett Crochet, Wes Kath, Jared Kelley, and Andrew Dahlquist to the A's for Frankie Montas. That's right, we're bringing back another familiar face. Although we're giving up a lot, Montas will provide some stability to the rotation for the next 2 years. He was tied for 5th in MLB with 20 quality starts last year, has a fairly low walk-rate and rolls a fair number of groundballs (over 40%), and although he's right-handed, lefties only hit .225 off him last year. I considered Manaea and Bassitt, but they only have 1 year of control and weren't necessarily better options. The A's seem to be on the cusp of a major shake-up and can shave payroll in exchange for 4 young talented inexpensive players. I'm honestly not sure what Garrett Crochet will become - I'm guessing at worst we're giving up a potential mid-rotation stalwart - but I am comfortable predicting that whatever the future holds, his ironic moustache and pegged pants will play well with those Bay Area hipsters.
No. 4 Dylan Cease, Jake Burger, and Yoelqui Cespedes to the Marlins for Sandy Alcantara. This trade is about adding certainty to the top of the rotation for the next several years. Alcantara threw over 200 innings last year, was tied for 2nd in MLB with 23 quality starts, has great stuff and is an extreme groundball pitcher (more than 50%). He also doesn't walk very many (2.19/9IP last year), which will be a breath of fresh air compared to Cease (3.69/9IP last year and 5.25/9IP in 2020). Cease's stuff has always been electric, and he seemed to take a step forward last year, but even so he still was too inefficient and unable to work deep into games (only 10 quality starts last year, good for 61st in MLB), not to mention that total meltdown in the second inning of Game 3 of the ALDS. Miami saves some money, since Alcantara is due for a decent raise in arbitration, and gets an extra year of control with Cease that lines up better with whatever window they might have, plus an inexpensive major league-ready 3B in Burger, and a good OF prospect in Cespedes. I can see very good arguments why this trade is unnecessary, namely that it's not enough of an upgrade at the expense of losing 2 prospects and adding roughly $4M in salary. However, I view Alcantara as not just insurance against Cease, but also against Lynn, since he also faltered down the stretch.
SUMMARY:
Rotation: Giolito, S. Alcantara, Lynn, F. Montas, E. Rodriguez
Shoulder Shack: Hendriks, Tepera, Kopech, McHugh, Bummer, Lopez, Cordero
Lineup:
Anderson (SS)
Moncada (3B)
Robert (CF)
Semien (SS)
Abreu (1B/DH)
Gallo (RF)
Jimenez (LF/DH)
Gomes (C)
Vaughn/Sheets (LF/RF/1B/DH)
Bench: R. Gonzalez (IF), Engel (OF), McCann (C), Gloveonchair
I have roster this coming in around $180M, and the additions would net roughly 5 WAR over what we got last year from the subtractions, and the lineup could threaten the club's single season HR record (242 in 2004). You could bring the payroll down closer to $170M if you don't sign Rodriguez and roll with Kopech in the rotation or $176M if you don't trade Cease for Alcantara. Is there any chance this plan would ever happen? Not remotely! Am I insane and hopped up on my kids' Halloween candy? Quite possibly. But hey, it was fun to think about and kept me from yelling at those damn kids on my lawn for a few hours.
Bon appetit!
