PREAMBLE
This exercise felt a lot like robbing Peter to pay Paul. Thanks to the amount the White Sox front office has sunk into many of their players, and especially the bullpen, even assigning this team with a payroll of $190M was a decently tough challenge.
I tried to be as realistic as possible with my trades and offseason moves. So often, these columns have suggestions of “I trade you my bad players and you give me your good players.” I’d like to think I didn’t do that with my suggestions. Unfortunately, that means players like Yasmani Grandal, Yoan Moncada, and Joe Kelly are still here. Sometimes, a player doesn’t have trade value, and you have to suck it up and hope they rebound going forward.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Write “tender,” “non-tender” or “rework/extend” after each player and their projected 2022 salaries. Feel free to offer explanation afterward if necessary.
- Lucas Giolito: $10.8M - Tender
- Dylan Cease: $5.3M - Tender
- Reynaldo López; $3.3M -Tender
- Adam Engel: $2.3M – Non-Tender
I like Adam Engel and I still have hope he can offensively rebound to his 2020/2021 levels. However, ultimately, he’s a defensive first player with inconsistent offensive output, and his $2.3M was still a tad pricey for me.
- Michael Kopech: $2.2M - Tender
- Kyle Crick: $1.5M – Non-tender
- José Ruiz: $1M – Non-tender
Willing to sign Ruiz to a minor league deal if he doesn’t get a major league deal elsewhere.
- Danny Mendick: $1M – Tender
Danny Mendick was good in 2022. He had a 125 wRC+ in 106 PA before Adam Haseley murdered him in the middle of a game. It would have been nice to see if Mendick was capable of keeping up consistent production throughout an entire season last year, but for $1M, I’m willing to give him another chance.
CLUB OPTIONS
Write “pick up” or “decline” or “rework” after the option.
- Tim Anderson: $12.5M ($1M buyout) – Pick Up
- Josh Harrison: $5.625M ($1.5M buyout) – Buyout
PLAYER OPTIONS
Write “exercised” or “takes buyout.” The question here is whether you think Pollock could do better than one year and $8 million on the open market. I’m filling it in with “exercised” unless you can provide a compelling argument against it.
- AJ Pollock: $13M ($5 million buyout) — EXERCISED
I am hoping that the White Sox front office tells Pollock that if he opts in, he’ll be sitting on the bench all season as an incentive to get him to go to another team. But AJ Pollock is not getting $8M from anyone else and he knows it. He’ll opt in and we as Sox fans need to hope he plays better next season. Dodgers won the trade.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, extend qualifying offer, or let go?
- José Abreu (Made $18M in 2021) – Let Go
This is not an indictment on Abreu. He’s been an incredible player on-the-field and in the dugout, and this hurts my heart to say this. But, if you love something, let it go. Between the current roster construction of like three other 1B/DH on this team and with little financial wiggle room, I will root for Abreu while he plays for another team and will admire the statute the White Sox will eventually build for the man.
- Johnny Cueto ($4.2M) – 1 year/$6M
I’m giving Johnny Cueto a raise. Sneakily, Cueto ended his 2022 campaign on a sour note, but it was hidden by the team around him also falling apart. Though, I’m mainly trying to retain Cueto as a matter of resource allocation. I’m going cheap in the rotation, without sacrificing performance (fingers crossed). After what the Cowboy did for the Pale Hose most of last season, I’m willing to roll the dice again in 2023.
- Vince Velasquez ($3M) – Let Go
- Elvis Andrus ($14.25M) – Let Go
MANAGER
I don’t have a particular preference of who the White Sox should hire as long as the new manager understands the modern way baseball is now played. That means comprehending and utilizing terms like “launch angle” and “exit velocity” and proper defensive placement, even with a ban of the shift going forward. Also, hiring a guy who comes from a consistently successful organization like the Astros or Dodgers or Rays makes too much sense.
The only thing I know for sure is that Ozzie Guillen should not be the next manager. I thank him for his prior service and I enjoy him as a TV personality, but there’s nothing in his analysis that makes me thinks he understands that baseball has drastically shifted away from the way it was played in 2005.
FREE AGENTS
No 1: OF Michael Conforto (3 years/$60M)
The White Sox need actual outfielders playing in the outfield, a left-handed bat, and the ability to hit RHP. In theory, Michael Conforto fulfills all three needs. Obviously, the Sox will need to confirm the former Mets’ health before agreeing to anything, but if Conforto rebounds, this will be a wildly successfully move for the Sox. I’m willing to give him player options to opt out every year as well.
No 2: C Omar Narvaez (1 year/$4.5M, $1.5M buyout or $5.5M club option for 2024)
This is my hedge against 2022 being the new norm and not an outlier for Yaz. Unless the White Sox are willing to blow up their payroll and sign former Cubs Willson Contreras, or willing to put their eggs in the catcher basket while ignoring other positions of need, I think this is a fine middle ground. Even though Narvaez is coming off of the worst offensive season of his career, he still was an elite pitch framer.
No 3: LHP Rich Hill (1 year/$3M)
I’m giving Hill the Carlos Rodon/Vince Velazquez deal. He’ll be 43 coming into the 2023 season and he had an ERA north of 4.00 last year. Ultimately, this is a low risk, high reward deal. I mainly just want SP depth to hedge against just penciling in Davis Martin, who I like for the back end of the rotation next year, for 30+ successful starts. And if Hill does falter, the Sox can easily cut bait and will still have Martin waiting in the wings in AAA. I also think a 1 yr/$3M deal for Hill is reasonable considering he is coming off a decently unsuccessful year where the Red Sox gave him a 1 yr/$5M deal.
TRADES
No. 1: Trade RHP Lucas Giolito to the New York Yankees for INF Gleyber Torres. The Yankees have too many infielders and could always use a solid SP for their inevitable playoff run. The Sox can spare a SP and could use a player who can play 2B or 3B.
This isn’t necessarily a knock against Gio as it me trying to upgrade the team elsewhere. Plus, the White Sox are not going to pay Lucas what he wants when he hits free agency next season. The Yankees could. I always think it's easier and more cost-efficient to get a successful pitcher on the open market than an infielder (something I hope the Yankees don't realize). Further, this trade protects the Sox in case 2021 was actually not a fluke for Gio. Additionally, if Moncada is going to put up another season with a 76 wRC+, Torres and Danny Mendick will eventually be manning second and third base.
No. 2: Trade RHP Kendall Graveman to the Toronto Blue Jays for RHP Chad Dallas. This is mainly a trade to get Graveman’s $8M off of the books. If the Sox don’t make any bullpen trades, they will owe $38.25M between Liam Hendriks, Joe Kelly, Aaron Bummer, Jake Diekman, and Graveman. That’s way too much allocated towards the bullpen, and I am re-allocating some funds towards other players.
It's easy to say “trade Joe Kelly and his $9M or Jake Diekman and his $3.5M” but I have a hard time believing anyone will trade for an expensive reliever who did not perform well in 2022. Graveman, on the other hand, has a successful and recent track record of holding down the 8th inning. The Blue Jays had a subpar bullpen last year and Graveman can hold down the 8th until Jordan Romano comes into the game. Further, the Blue Jays are really only taking on salary.
I thought about trading away Liam Hendriks but 1) if you’re trying to make the Sox better, it’s not necessarily the best idea to sell your lock down closer, even if he is super pricey at $14M and 2) I couldn’t find a good return from the Dodgers, who would be more than happy to trade away assets to acquire Hendriks. I think the White Sox can live without Graveman, even though I do think he’s good. I have a harder time picturing the Sox being good without Hendriks.
SUMMARY
C: Yasmani Grandal $18.25M
1B: Andrew Vaughn $00.72M
2B: Gleyber Torres $09.80M
SS: Tim Anderson $12.50M
3B: Yoan Moncada $17.00M
OF: Michael Conforto $20.00M
OF: Luis Robert $09.50M
OF: AJ Pollock $13.00M
DH: Eloy Jimenez $09.50M
BN: Danny Mendick $01.00M
BN: Leury Garcia $05.50M (Ugh, why did he have to get re-signed last year)
BN: Omar Narvaez $04.50M
BN: Gavin Sheets $00.72M
BN: Mark Payton $00.72M (will eventually be Oscar Colas by mid-season)
SP: Dylan Cease $05.30M
SP: Michael Kopech $02.20M
SP: Lance Lynn $18.50M
SP: Johnny Cueto $06.00M
SP: Rich Hill $03.00M
CL: Liam Hendricks $14.00M
RP: ReyLo $03.30M
RP: Joe Kelly $09.00M
RP: Aaron Bummer $03.75M
RP: Jake Diekman $03.50M
RP: Jimmy Lambert $00.72M
RP: Garrett Crochet $00.72M (or whoever at league minimum to start the season until Crochet gets healthy)
Jey-Hey buyout $01.50M
TOTAL: $189.67
