PREAMBLE
This will be a pretty weird off-season and lead up to 2023. There is probably little to no money to spend on free agents, and the front office is in detention and not allowed to move any of the prospects (the few that we have). We're going to have to be creative to makeover this team. In the grand scheme of things, the only team they need to beat is Cleveland to get their ticket punched. This is very do-able.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Write “tender,” “non-tender” or “rework/extend” after each player and their projected 2022 salaries. Feel free to offer explanation afterward if necessary.
- Lucas Giolito: $10.8M - tender and offer the same three yr extension from last year.
- Dylan Cease: $5.3M - tender
- Reynaldo López; $3.3M - tender
- Adam Engel: $2.3M - non-tender. the start of removing any links to the 2010's.
- Michael Kopech: $2.2M - tender
- Kyle Crick: $1.5M - non-tender
- José Ruiz: $1M - non-tender, no room
- Danny Mendick: $1M - tender. Not sure if he has any options left, but he might be starting in Charlotte.
CLUB OPTIONS
Write “pick up” or “decline” or “rework” after the option.
- Tim Anderson: $12.5M ($1M buyout) - pickup
- Josh Harrison: $5.625M ($1.5M buyout - buyout
PLAYER OPTIONS
Write “exercised” or “takes buyout.” The question here is whether you think Pollock could do better than one year and $8 million on the open market. I’m filling it in with “exercised” unless you can provide a compelling argument against it.
- AJ Pollock: $13M ($5 million buyout) — EXERCISED - Madrigal leads to Kimbrell which leads to the worst option pick-up, which leads to the most expensive 4th outfielder who eventually plays every day and makes his player option year 30% more expensive. This is why the front office is in detention. The Dodgers play chess and we play marbles.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, extend qualifying offer, or let go?
- José Abreu (Made $18M in 2021) - let go. All time great Sox, but it just never happened.
- Johnny Cueto ($4.2M) - let go, check back in Feb. for bargain bin.
- Vince Velasquez ($3M) - let go
- Elvis Andrus ($14.25M) - let go, check back in Feb for bargain bin. Him replacing TA made me think a little.
MANAGER
2023 is all about the quick rebound and plugging holes. Starting fresh with a green manager doesn't sound right, so we need someone who can deliver a fresh message and provide a sense of urgency. Bring in Ozzie, no one knows the core better than he does, and I'm sure he's been selling this angle for months. The main focus is getting Yoan/Robert/Eloy to play to even 75% of their potential, and they win this division easily. The Phillies are again proving anything can happen once it starts.
Give Ozzie 81 games to make a difference and give us a chance, if it all goes south then fire his ass. Bring on Willie Harris to be his bench coach and be the man in waiting.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: No significant signings. It is clear the three stooges can't spend money effectively, so save your pennies for the next administration in 2024 if it all goes further south. Short of a cheap 5th/6th starter or Elvis, the stupid spending needs to end.
TRADE
No. 1: Trade TA for Gleybar Torres. Yankee fans need a frontline shortstop, and Tim might be a great fit there. Moving on from another victim of the 2010's to remove that link, again sometimes it never happens with great (in this case good) players. The end for me was when not one player or coach stepped between him and the ump, even when TA continued to back the ump down. He can't/won't walk, can't/won't run, plays up/down defense, but has an electric bat that has few equivalents. His profile won't age well, so change of scenery for both guys. He can hit a ton of RF homers in Yankee stadium...if that's what he wants to do. Sox gain a year of control in the swap and a lower salary, that's why I'm not asking for more.
No. 2 - Trade Yaz, Cespedes, and one of Thompson/Jared Kelley/Dalquist for (MIL) Christian Yellich. This is a salary dump for both sides with the Brewers getting out from a huge contract. We throw in the prospects to get salary relief on the last three years of the deal, need about $13mil per season; give them two of the pitchers if needed. $13mil is still expensive for 36 yr old Yellich (or Pollach), but this gamble is all about his age 31-33 seasons. What's one more bounce back candidate in the grand scheme. Consider this a Rios type gamble that mostly paid off. I think the Yaz signing was the right thing to do, but there is no fit for him anywhere, he needs to go.
SUMMARY
We need this team to hit home runs, end of story. Tell Ozzie to play up his small ball routine, but his teams also hit 200+HR's every year. You can't win in Sox park unless the team is built on home runs. We are also more LH to fend off the dreaded RH pitching.
The player changes force a remaining player(s) into a leadership role. Not sure who that is, but Ozzie can fill in the void for the time being. The layer of Abreu/TA/Yaz provided nothing by way of accountability or identity. Larussa walked on egg shells his entire tenure, so a new environment needs to develop where the players have no where to hide.
We can now play defense at every position, but the pitching is mostly the same. The concept here is that the pitching will respond to more runs scored and less runs given away. If July 1 2023 looks the same as July 1 2022, then you pawn everything that moves and melt it down. Flip Lynn, Gio, Kelly, Graveman, Pollach, etc. and start saving money for 2024. The Sox have enough prospects and payroll flexibility 2024 and beyond to compete in the relegation league known as the AL Central.
Here's what it looks like:
1B - Vaughn; 2B - Torres; SS - Elvis/Sosa; 3B - Yoan; C - Zavala; LF - Yellich; CF - Robert; RF - Colas (why wait); DH - Eloy (Maybe one LF start per week if we need to force in RH bats)
Starting Pitching:
Cease; Gio; Lynn; Kopech; Cueto (or Quintana); and Martin. You need six to have 5.
Relief:
Liam, Reylo, Graveman, Bummer, Kelly, Lambert, Diekman (until Crochet is stretched out)
Bench: Romy (Leury is DFA'd in spring, and the link to 2010's is broken), Carlos Perez (McGuire would look pretty good here), Pollach, Sheets (need this LH bench bat. Should get two starts per week at 1b/DH, and a PH per game.)
I don't know what this equates to on an overall payroll, but it is certainly lower than the current $190mil ceiling. I really believe JR is holding Hahn accountable on the past moves he has made, and his future money commitments. He won't allow him to make any new deals, or use anymore prospect resources until its clear his vision pans out. If its clear that Hahn wears beer goggles at the end of 2023, then he pushes the button for a new front office.
This is a functional roster that gives a manager options. In the end, if the players you bet on in 2106-19 don't produce, then 2022 was the start of the China syndrome. They are stuck doing this for at least one more year. Here's to luck and baseball randomness, the good kind.
