Bullrun1861 Off Season Plan

PREAMBLE

I see the White Sox at this point as still able to compete for a division title and maybe make it out of a round-1 opponent with my newly constructed roster. With my bold trades to bolster the farm system, a commitment to their ready to contribute burgeoning top talent, and a reallocation of traded money to several free agents, the new manager Grifol might be able to mold a team that could surprise and sneak into the AL championship game. Hey, the Phillies weren’t exactly a household pick, and they spent stupid money to be the last NL team into the dance. Stranger things have happened.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

• Lucas Giolito: $10.8M // Tender
• Dylan Cease: $5.3M // Tender
• Reynaldo López; $3.3M // Tender
• Adam Engel: $2.3M // Non-Tender
• Michael Kopech: $2.2M // Tender
• Kyle Crick: $1.5M // Non-Tender
• José Ruiz: $1M // Non-Tender
• Danny Mendick: $1M // Tender

CLUB OPTIONS

• Tim Anderson: $12.5M ($1M buyout) // Already picked up as of this writing.
• Josh Harrison: $5.625M ($1.5M buyout // Already declined as of this writing.

PLAYER OPTIONS

• AJ Pollock: $13M ($5 million buyout) — EXERCISED

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

• José Abreu (Made $18M in 2021) // Let go.
• Johnny Cueto ($4.2M) // Retain.
• Vince Velasquez ($3M) // Let go.
• Elvis Andrus ($14.25M) // Let go.

MANAGER

Already named.

FREE AGENTS

• No. 1: Joc Pederson on a 2-year $16M deal (8+8).
• No. 2: Joey Gallo on a 1-year $4M prove it deal. Not sure if this salary is too rich so I will let the critic’s critique. I’ve already submitted my Gallo idea in other Jim M. columns as A.) purely a stopgap while Colas eases into his role, B.) a gold glove caliber defender who can play all three outfield positions, and C.) an occasional power bat from the left side.
• No. 3: Jacob deGrom on a 2-year $90M ($45M+$45M) deal with an opt out in year-2. This is the dreamy blockbuster free agent outlier! I realize Reinsdorf is unlikely to give aging pitching any kind of contract. The rationale is adding an elite arm to the rotation to get into the dance in 2023. And deGrom is elite! Worse case he opts out in 2024 and they save $45M. Future-wise Giolito will likely be gone too by 2024 and Lynn too unless they pick up an $18M club option. So, the rotation will possibly need reworking in 2024. Perhaps Garrett Crochet is ready to step into a slot and pitchers obtained in trades or existing minor league arms are rotation ready. Buy hey, this exercise is for 2023!
• No. 3 backup: Carlos Rodon on a $135M ($45M+$45M+$45M) three-year deal. https://theathletic.com/3752188/2022/11/04/mlb-free-agents-contract-team-predictions/ is predicting 5-years for $144M. I think 5-years is too risky so make it over 3-years for the same annual $45M offered deGrom plus an opt out in year-3. If I am willing to give deGrom $45M I should be willing to give a pitcher 5-years younger the same. Plus, the White Sox have history with Rodon. He is a Boras client.

TRADES

Trades 1 and 2 are getting to be an old rag of mine so apologies for the redux! At least #3 is new-ish.

• No. 1: Trade Andrew Vaughn to the Oakland A’s for catcher Shea Langeliers. The White Sox will likely have to sweeten the deal with pitching, for example:
• Davis Martin and/or Jimmy Lambert or,
• Martin/Jared Kelly -or- Mathew Thompson or,
• Lambert/Jared Kelly -or- Mathew Thompson, or,
• one only of Cristian Mena or Norge Vera.
• The rationale as I have submitted in other Jim M. columns is the A’s organizational catching depth (Langeliers aside). That is, Vaughn and Langeliers were drafted only a few slots apart in the first round in 2019 (Vaughn 3rd, Langeliers 9th by the Braves). While the White Sox are receiving a premium position talent prospect, they are giving up an established major league player with a seeming ceiling of growth. In theory this solves their catching position for the next 10-years.
• No. 2: Trade Tim Anderson to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The rationale as I have submitted in other Jim M. columns is my gut says the Dodgers do not throw huge sums to retain Trea Turner. If that comes to fruition Anderson is a reasonable replacement from a money perspective. Though the Dodgers analytical operation will know Anderson’s flaws so maybe they will not be interested. But if they are, the return could be a near(er) ready starting pitcher from their stable of minor league arms or other position players in their system. Fourteen of their top-30 prospects are pitchers. I do not believe Anderson will net a mega return but maybe an SP4/5 prospect. Replacing SS (and 2B for that matter) from a pool of minor league talent out of spring training, some of whom are known commodities, to already having cups of coffee (Romy Gonzalez, Danny Mendick, Lenyn Sosa, Jose Rodriguez) is realistic. Eventually and maybe late 2023 or hopefully 2024 brings Colson Montgomery. Perhaps by then Montgomery is considered for 3B if his SS defense doesn’t ascend in his remaining minor league seasoning. Lastly, for me as a fan who also values ballplayer personality traits like those of Aaron Judge, Derek Jeter, and Mike Trout, moving on from Anderson’s distractions is welcoming to me.
• No. 3: Trade Liam Hendriks. Again, like Anderson, my previous submissions have only cited my personal dislike for his personality distractions. But as Jim M. points out regularly the ROI for this player position is just whack. I support the idea of moving Michael Kopech into the closer role. I think his velocity would improve but more importantly be consistent throughout the entirety of the campaign. He’s already relieved in high leverage so it wouldn’t be a mind-bending experiment sending him back to the pen, albeit it in different role. To whom the suitor is the question. I haven’t looked too closely but perhaps the Yankees would be willing dance partners as I wonder if they will go back to the Aroldis Chapman well or others used in 2022. They have tended to go for the high profile closer. Maybe the Dodgers, again? Perhaps a multiplayer deal that packages Anderson AND Hendriks. While a different Dodger front office they did the mega deal with the Red Sox.

SUMMARY

• My 0–3-year player salary total of $5.1M may be low.
• My F/A contracts for Pederson, Gallo, and Cueto may be slightly off. Hopefully too high so can be adjusted down. I can cite a source for a predicted deGrom contract at the above mentioned https://theathletic.com/3752188/2022/11/04/mlb-free-agents-contract-team-predictions/.
• The lineup and bench are balanced with four pure left-handed bats and still three more switch hitters.
• A return to average performances by Moncada and Grandal is a reasonable expectation.
• Eloy Jiménez seems accepting of the DH role and could be the lineup X-factor with the monster power year all fans have been waiting.
• Some with scoff at Gavin Sheets getting a fulltime role but I think allowing him to settle in a first base will positively affect his hitting in a 2021 kind of way but over a heavier workload. Like Jiménez, I think he too could be a lineup power X-factor in 30 HRs and 80-100 RBIs.
• Rolling with four rookies, three of whom start and one who will get ample playing time behind the dish also seems counterproductive to playoff aspirations. But I think it is time to allow this talent to play and get acclimated to the major leagues. There are fill in/backup plans in Mendick, Garcia(!), and Gallo as each rookie eases into their roles.
• Players in the minors that could get time if either of the middle infielders faulter are Lenyn Sosa and Colson Montgomery (though Montgomery less unlikely early in the season). Don’t be surprised if Duke Ellis gets a look-see in spring training for outfield depth. His speed (I think lead all White Sox system players in stolen bases) and defense could be worth the look. Pitching-wise Sean Burke seems like he is pushing the envelope to a commuter role between AAA and the majors. Jonathan Stiever and Caleb Freeman have major league experience (though Stiever is coming off injury). Don’t forget Tanner Banks’ and Bennett Sousa’s 2022 contributions, albeit not with particularly great results, both of whom have major league experience. Actually, Banks did decently.
• I know trading any one of the three mentioned players much less all three will be considered controversial. Critics will ask how can the White Sox compete for a division (much less greater ambitions) in jettisoning three integral components? To that I simply say they did not win with them in a 2022 season with high expectations. However, these three major trades can prop up their farm system while forcing their own prospects into major roles. Who heard of Andres Gimenez before last year? Sprinkling in two new veteran position players and the gem of the pitching free agent class makes sense to Reinsdorf because it allows for a return to absolutely be competitive in the weak AL Central in 2023 and the trades secure future competitiveness, provided their returns are quality prospects.
• The payroll eclipses 2023 but not by an unreasonable amount.

I look forward to the community opinions.