PREAMBLE
Well, I sure did pick a great season to buy season tickets for the first time. 2022 did not go according to plan, but poor free agent contracts and trades (Leury Garcia, Joe Kelly, Jake Diekman, etc.) have tied Rick Hahn and co.'s hands heading into this offseason. It would take a miricle for Jerry Reinsdorf to respond to the 2022 disappointment with *more* spending, so the best we can hope for is a repeat of the 2022 payroll. The team will need to get creative to meet their priorities:
- Left-Handed Offense with Power and OBP Ability: The 2022 White Sox were historically bad against right handed pitching. No more making average AAAA RHP's look like Roger Clemens. To me, the team's top priority this offseason should be adding left-handed bats that can get on base and hit for power
- Starting Pitching Depth: As it stands right now, the White Sox do not have the rotation (or depth) to compete with the top teams in the league. Dylan Cease is under a lot of pressure to repeat his Cy Young-caliber season, Lance Lynn looked reliable toward the end of the season but seems to be an injury risk at this stage in his career, and Lucas Giolito will need to have yet another redemption story to stick with the team moving forward. After those three, you're left with Michael Kopech (very promising when healthy, but seemingly always on innings-watch and injury-watch) and a Johnny Cueto-shaped hole. Davis Martin currently represents the only viable depth starter in the organization, and who knows how he's doing after his last start of the season
- Second Base: Another year, another new second baseman for the Chicago White Sox. While internal options exist between Lenyn Sosa, Danny Mendick and Jose Rodriguez, I think the team should look outside the organization for a reliable defender with solid enough offensive ability to represent an upgrade over Josh Harrison or Elvis Andrus.
- Veteran Leadership: With Jose Abreu leaving for other pastures and a clear need for veteran leadership among the position players, it's key that Rick Hahn finds a few strong clubhouse leaders to hold fellow players accountable.
With that...
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Write “tender,” “non-tender” or “rework/extend” after each player and their projected 2022 salaries. Feel free to offer explanation afterward if necessary.
- Lucas Giolito: $10.8M - TENDER
- Dylan Cease: $5.3M - TENDER
- Reynaldo López; $3.3M - TENDER
- Adam Engel: $2.3M - NON-TENDER
- Michael Kopech: $2.2M - TENDER
- Kyle Crick: $1.5M - NON-TENDER
- José Ruiz: $1M - NON-TENDER (Please)
- Danny Mendick: $1M - TENDER
CLUB OPTIONS
Write “pick up” or “decline” or “rework” after the option.
- Tim Anderson: $12.5M ($1M buyout) - PICKED UP
- Josh Harrison: $5.625M ($1.5M buyout - DECLINE
PLAYER OPTIONS
Write “exercised” or “takes buyout.” The question here is whether you think Pollock could do better than one year and $8 million on the open market. I’m filling it in with “exercised” unless you can provide a compelling argument against it.
- AJ Pollock: $13M ($5 million buyout) — DECLINED (Argument: Because he actually declined it - somehow!)
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, extend qualifying offer, or let go?
- José Abreu (Made $18M in 2021) - LET GO
- Johnny Cueto ($4.2M) - LET GO (Resign)
- Vince Velasquez ($3M) - LET GO
- Elvis Andrus ($14.25M) - LET GO
MANAGER
Had I gotten to my off-season plan earlier, you would have seen my support thrown toward either Joe Espada or Kevin Long. Espada's World Champion bonafides need no further explanation, and Kevin Long seems to be a clear hitting guru and favorite of players across the league. Frankly, I barely took the time to learn about Pedro Grifol when his name was first introduced as a candidate. After Grifol's hiring and subsequent press tour, however, I'm thrilled with the hire. Grifol seems to have the right balance of analytical understanding and leadership ability to move this team forward. As for his staff, I'm happy to have Ethan Katz and Curt Hasler back in the fold. Charlie Montoyo brings a veteran perspective to the bench coach role, and it sounds like Mike Tosar has the hitting coach position locked down. That leaves 1B and 3B coach vacancies left, and I'd prioritize hiring one who can effectively coach outfielders (anyone but Daryl Boston) and one who can take over for Joe McEwing as an infield coach. If their current teams make them available, I'd add Ron Washington as 3B Coach and Willie Harris as 1B Coach. Otherwise, I'd pay Herm Schnieder and his devil magic whatever he wants to return to lead the training staff.
FREE AGENTS
List three free-agent targets you’d pursue during the offseason, with a reasonable contract. A good example of a bad idea:
No. 1: Michael Conforto (1 year, $16 mil. + incentives): Had he not gotten injured before the lockout ended this past offseason, Conforto may well have been a member of the 2022 White Sox. The team has been linked to Conforto fairly regularly since he was first declared a free agent, and a 1 year prove-it deal at $16 mil (plus some incentives) seems fair for a potential impact left handed power bat in RF. Worst case scenario: Conforto simply cedes playing time to Oscar Colas later in the season.
No. 2: Andrew Benintendi (5 years, $70 mil). I know that Andrew Benintendi isn't everyone's ideal solution for the corner outfield -- he seemed to forget how to hit for power in 2022, but between his relative youth, solid outfield defense, left-handed bat and strong on-base skills, I think Benintendi would be an excellent addition to the White Sox roster. Maybe a reunion with Grifol and other former Royals coaches will do him wonders.
No. 3: Billy Hamilton (1 year, $1 mil). I don't care. I want him back. He's on Adam Engel's level defensively (and frankly almost offensively) and represents an excellent pinch-running tactical option.
TRADES
Propose trades that you think sound reasonable for both sides, and the rationale behind them. A good example of a bad idea:
No. 1: Trade Liam Hendriks to Los Angeles Dodgers for Ryan Pepiot, Michael Busch and Nick Frasso. The White Sox and Dodgers have a strong trading relationship already in place, and just like last offseason the Dodgers need a closer and the Sox have one to offer. Don't get me wrong -- I love Liam Hendriks. I want to see Liam Hendriks closing out playoff games for the Sox. That said, Hendriks is a luxury for a team with greater needs and he happens to be at nearly peak trade value after Edwin Diaz's monster contract with the Mets. Several teams should be in the running for Hendriks' services (the Cardinals, Yankees, Giants, Blue Jays, and more come to mind), so the acquisition price should be high. Inspired by Josh Nelson's off-season plan project, I think a deal with the Dodgers including Ryan Pepiot and Nick Frasso makes the most sense. The only change I'd make to Josh's original trade would be the inclusion of Michael Busch, a AAA left-handed 2B/OF prospect, instead of a third pitching prospect. This trade would give the Sox some valuable starting pitching depth with promise in Pepiot and Frasso (although Frasso may have a more viable future in the bullpen) while also providing another 2B option for the team to consider. Then again, the trade could also give the Sox the prospect capital they need to...
No. 2: Trade Jordan Montgomery, Ryan Pepiot, Michael Busch, Gavin Sheets and Christian Mena to Milwaukee Brewers for Brandon Woodruff. The White Sox badly need to solidify the starting rotation, and I'm not interested in simply piling on salaries for 4-5 tier starters. To compete with the heavyweight teams in the AL, the Sox need to pick up a co-ace to complement Dylan Cease and take some pressure off of Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito and Michael Kopech. Michael Lorenzen isn't that guy (although I think he's a valuable 6th Starter to ease Kopech's innings), and the top free agent starters (Rodon, DeGrom, Bassitt, etc.) would break the bank and prevent the front office from filling other holes. Woodruff has been a reliable co-ace on the Brewers staff alongside Corbin Burns (who I imagine the Brewers would be more hesitant to trade), and he is still in arbitration for two more years. I've seen a variety of projected salaries for Woodruff in 2023, but I'm going to estimate a salary around $13 mil. That still leaves more salary room than most free agents would provide. Sure, trading Montgomery stings, but it has to hurt to get a deal like this done. Gavin Sheets should have more playing opportunities in Milwaukee, Pepiot fills the hole in Milwaukee's rotation right away, Busch can have a shot at starting at 2B, and Mena represents a high upside long term starter possibility.
No. 3: Trade Jose Rodriguez and Jake Diekman to Toronto Blue Jays for Whit Merrifield. This trade serves two purposes: 1) Get the Diekman money off the books, which requires a better prospect return for Toronto than Merrifield is probably worth otherwise; 2) Add a reliable, durable 2B option with some veteran leadership value, decent numbers against RHP, positional versatility (which is a bit redundant with Leury still around), and familiarity with the incoming coaching staff. Maybe Grifol and Tosar can get Merrifield's offense back to where it was a few years go while he helps solidify the up-the-middle defense. He is owed $2.75 million with $4 million in incentives (which he is likely to reach), so he's essentially a $3 million 2B upgrade when you factor in the Diekman money.
SUMMARY
After all is said and done, here's the new line-up and pitching staff:
C- Yasmani Grandal
1B- Andrew Vaughn
2B- Whit Merrifield
3B- Yoan Moncada
SS- Tim Anderson
LF- Andrew Benintendi
CF- Luis Robert
RF- Michael Conforto
DH- Eloy Jimenez
BENCH: Leury Garcia (INF/OF), Danny Mendick (INF), Seby Zavala (C), Billy Hamilton (OF)
BATTING ORDER:
- Tim Anderson (R)
- Andrew Benintendi (L)
- Luis Robert (R)
- Eloy Jimenez (R)
- Michael Conforto (L)
- Andrew Vaughn (R)
- Yoan Moncada (S)
- Yasmani Grandal (S)
- Whit Merrifield (R)
PITCHING STAFF:
SP1- Dylan Cease
SP2- Brandon Woodruff
SP3- Lance Lynn
SP4- Lucas Giolito
SP5- Michael Kopech
CL- Reynaldo Lopez (or, if Davis Martin looks really good, maybe Kopech?)
SU- Aaron Bummer
SU- Kendall Graveman
MR- Garrett Crochet
MR- Joe Kelly
MR- Jimmy Lambert
LR- Tanner Banks/Davis Martin
If my math is correct (no promises), that leaves us with a payroll right around $188.75 mil for 2023 with a much stronger starting rotation, an upgrade in both outfield corners, a bit of an upgrade at 2B, a better overall defensive set-up, and a solid new mix of veteran leadership and youthful energy for Grifol and his staff to work with! While I wish I could have added at least one more depth starter (ideally bringing Johnny Cueto back) and I don't think Whit Merrifield is the best solution for 2B (I'd almost rather bring back Elvis Andrus, but Merrifield will cost less in this scenario), I think this plan gives the Sox a solid foundation for a bounce-back season in 2023!
