The White Sox basically telegraphed the decision when they gave Pedro Grifol No. 5, but they indeed bypassed the club option on Josh Harrison's $5.625 million for 2023 in favor of a $1.5 million buyout to open their hot stove season on Monday.
They also exercised Tim Anderson's $12.5 million club option for 2023, and while that decision involves a player more vital to the construction of next year's roster, there isn't a whole lot to say about it.
Here, the White Sox passed on the idea of paying Harrison a reasonable rate, at least if you think of it as a one-year, $4.125 million decision. Harrison was basically an average second baseman over the 119 games he played, because he accrued 1.4 WAR by both measurements, with his slightly below-average adjusting hitting stats buoyed by good glovework at second base.
But there never seemed to be a real case for retaining him, and two things about the fit had me shooting it down. One's simple, and the other is a little more nuanced.
No. 1: Harrison had the worst clutch numbers on the White Sox.
According to FanGraphs, Harrison had the worst clutch score (-1.04) on the White Sox, and the second worst Win Probability Added (-1.81). He hit .214/.287/.337 with runners in scoring position, but he went 0-for-6 with three strikeouts with the bases loaded, and tallied just four RBIs in 21 plate appearances with runner on third and fewer than two outs. If he didn't feel like a near-average bat, that's why.
No. 2: His value was tied to Leury García's.
When the White Sox signed Harrison after the lockout ended, it gave me an excuse to talk about the insane three-year deal they gave Leury García, which I didn't weigh in on in real time because my son was born the day before.
Basically, the presence of García as a $5.5 million hedge against disaster at multiple positions basically devalued the addition of every subsequent hedge. Here's a likely scenario I saw unfolding back in March.
Harrison resembles Eaton as a modest acquisition that Hahn intends to mitigate risk. On paper, Harrison represents an improvement that maintains the front office’s precious flexibility. It just invites a different kind of danger thanks to their track record of professional scouting, in that he’s devoting the resources of a medium-sized contract that could’ve been directed toward actually solving a problem. Let’s say Harrison achieves his 20th-percentile PECOTA projection of .253/.316/.368. Combine his contract with García’s deal, and the Sox spent $11 million without fixing a position. This happens a lot.
And it happened again! There's Harrison's individual production ...
- 20th percentile: .253/.316/.368
- 2022 actual: .256/.317/.370
... and there's the way it was washed out by greater failure around him, resulting in replacement-level second-base production that only the Orioles failed to top.
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Harrison | 328 | .252 | .313 | .376 | 1.4 |
| Leury García | 174 | .210 | .220 | .293 | -1.1 |
| Romy González | 92 | .256 | .272 | .378 | 0.0 |
| Lenyn Sosa | 17 | .188 | .235 | .438 | -0.3 |
In fairness to Harrison, that preseason PECOTA projection wouldn't have counted as 20th percentile if it foresaw the way production plummeted in 2022. He posted a Deserved Runs Created+ of 96 in 2022, which was his 70th-percentile projection before everybody found out that homers were harder to hit.
But just like the 2022 baseball, that only goes so far. As a right-handed hitter without power or patience, Harrison was more likely to feed into the team's weaknesses than buoy a position with his strengths. Sure enough, White Sox second basemen drew just 22 walks over 630 plate appearances. Only three positions around baseball did worse in that regard, and two of them were for a 107-loss team.
- Nationals shortstops, 12 walks over 628 PA (1.9% BB)
- Rays catchers, 16 walks over 606 PA (2.6%)
- Nationals third basemen, 20 walks over 623 PA (3.2%)
- White Sox second basemen, 22 walks over 630 PA (3.5%)
As long as García is making what he's making and contributing so little, the Sox can't really afford to pay a player a similar amount to tread so closely to a cliff. If they don't truly strive to solve second base with an ambitious transaction, they're better off rolling with Sosa, González, Yolbert Sanchez, Danny Mendick and José Rodríguez. None of them is individually a better bet to exceed Harrison's production, but it's safer play to put that kind of imagined money on the field, and devote the actual dollars elsewhere around the diamond.
