Yolmer’s Gatorade’s Dingers and Defense Off Season Plan
Rich Hahn deserves all the hate he gets on this site and elsewhere. However, he is correct that the 2023 White Sox are going to depend on positive regression from Grandal and Moncada and better health from many of the other players. Grandal’s and Moncada’s contracts are underwater, and there is no way to trade them this offseason without eating money. It would be selling low to trade Jimenez, Vaughn, or Robert too as they all still have 5+ WAR potential. Given these parameters, this off season plan tries to address the two big flaws in the 2022 White Sox – lack of home runs and outfield defense.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Lucas Giolito: $10.8M - Tender
Dylan Cease: $5.3M - Tender
Reynaldo López; $3.3M - Tender
Adam Engel: $2.3M – Non-tender
Michael Kopech: $2.2M – Tender
Kyle Crick: $1.5M – Tender (he is gone already)
José Ruiz: $1M – Non-tender
Danny Mendick: $1M – Tender
Ruiz has been my pet peeve for the last two years. He had basically the same level of stuff as Matt Foster but consistently showed he could not be trusted in any high leverage situation. Maybe on a rebuilding team Ruiz can work out his high leverage yips, but now is a good time to show him the door. Engel is replaced by a real defensive replacement. Mendick sticks around as a backup infielder in my plan.
CLUB OPTIONS
Tim Anderson: $12.5M ($1M buyout) – Pick up
Josh Harrison: $5.625M ($1.5M buyout – Decline
Harrison was good for the year, but it is time to move on.
PLAYER OPTIONS
AJ Pollock: $13M ($5 million buyout) — EXERCISED
It wouldn’t surprise me if Pollock has some positive regression to something closer to his career norms. He probably wants to play a little longer after this season and will have to show some value to find his next job.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
José Abreu (Made $18M in 2021) – Let go
Johnny Cueto ($4.2M) – Let go
Vince Velasquez ($3M) – Let go
Elvis Andrus ($14.25M) – Let go
Thanks for the memories, Jose, and nothing was ever your fault. The Sox just have too many 1B/DH types to keep him around. Goodbye horses to Cueto too. He can find more money and should cash in on his good year. The others are pretty self-explanatory.
MANAGER
It’s Grifol. He seems qualified and competent, and I will give him the benefit of the doubt until he proves otherwise. This plan gives him a project that he has succeeded on before.
FREE AGENTS
Let’s patch some holes with some bounce back candidates
No 1: Joey Gallo (one year, $8,000,000). He is definitely a bounce back candidate. His hard-hit rate was pretty good last year at 50.5%, but his barrel percentage is down from his good years in Texas at 17.6%. It could point to some swing balance issues. He has power, and maybe with some tinkering in his swing and better balance he can better tap into that power. More than his hitting, he has always been a very good outfielder. He can hold down rightfield defensively, and if Colas pushes him out by midseason that is fine too.
No 2: Kyle Gibson (one year, $6,000,000): He has some pretty bad conventional stats last year with a 5.05 ERA, but his eERA was 4.46, FIP 4.28, and xFIP 3.94. He was worth 1.8 WAR according to Fangraphs even with that ERA. He does not have elite strike out numbers but generates a fair amount of ground balls and still avoided hard contact pretty well. Cueto showed that profile can have success at Guaranteed Rate Field last year, and Gibson could be the next veteran pitcher to rebuild some value under Katz.
No. 3: Billy Hamilton (one year, $1,000,000): I don’t understand why teams don’t lock this guy up more. He still has value as a defensive replacement and baserunner. If Robert is injured again, I do not mind Hamilton stepping in because at least the outfield defense gets better.
Potential minor league invites: Alex Colome, Tyler Duffy, Tyler Danish, Vinny Velo, Ian Kennedy, Sergio Ramos, J.B. Wendelken, Chad Kuhl, Tyler Anderson, Aaron Sanchez. Any pitcher who wants to come basically.
TRADES
We swap some underwater contracts and get rid of some salary to make all this work here.
No. 1: Trade Leury Garcia, Jack Diekman, Blake Rutherford, Micker Adolfo to Marlines for Jorge Soler and Joey Wendle: This is actually an overpay for the White Sox according to Baseball Trade Values simulator. The simulator seems to really hate Soler’s contract. I think in real life the Marlins might need more prospect capital to make this work. I would give up some more prospects lower down our top 30 list but no one in the top 10. Diekman could bounce back and be flipped next year. The Marlins seem to be rebuilding, so maybe they jump at the chance to move on from Soler and Wendle. Grifol gets his project in Soler, and the Sox fill second with a lefty who plays good defense. Soler’s defense in left was pretty average last year, but he is not as much of a blackhole as Eloy. Pollock can get a fair amount of playing time in leftfield in this scenario too.
No. 2: Trade Kendall Graveman to the Mariners for Justus Sheffield: This is just a salary dump but also validated by the trade simulator. The Mariners might see a need for more bullpen help as they are a contending team. The White Sox high minors gets a starting pitcher they can try to fix.
SUMMARY
The outfield has three real outfielders. There are 6 players on this roster with real 30 home run potential as well. If all goes well, there are many dingers and much better coverage on the grass. Here is the 26 man roster:
Starters
C: Yasmani Grandal ($18.3M)
1B: Andrew Vaughn ($720K)
2B: Joey Wendle ($6.3M)
SS: Tim Anderson ($12.5M)
3B: Yoan Moncada ($17.8M)
RF: Joey Gallo ($8.0M)
CF: Luis Robert ($9.5M)
LF: Jorge Soler ($12M)
DH: Eloy Jimenez ($10.3M)
Bench
UTL: Danny Mendick ($1 M)
OF: Billy Hamilton ($1 M)
C: Seby Zavala ($720K)
OF: A.J. Pollock ($13M)
Colas is also knocking at the gates, and Sheets and Burger can fill in if anyone gets injured or really looks bad.
Starting Rotation
SP: Dylan Cease ($5.3M)
SP: Lance Lynn ($18.5M)
SP: Lucas Giolito ($10.8M)
SP: Kyle Gibson ($6 M)
SP: Michael Kopech ($2.2M)
Bullpen
CP: Liam Hendriks ($14.3M)
RP: Reynaldo Lopez ($3.3M)
RP: Aaron Bummer (L) ($3.75M)
RP: Joe Kelly ($9M)
RP: Garrett Crochet ($720K)
RP: Jimmy Lambert ($720K)
RP: Tanner Banks (L) ($720K)
RP: Matt Foster or whoever makes the team from minor league invites ($720K)
That actually comes out to $186M, so Rick Hahn can go sign another reliever
