2023 MLB Draft Report: Advanced Metrics and Battle of Shortstops

One critical resource when following MLB Draft prospects is a D1Baseball.com subscription. Kendall Rogers and his staff have assembled what I consider the FanGraphs of College Baseball. It’s hard to try and capture what’s happening for 299 D-I programs, but D1Baseball.com does the best job out of all the national outlets. 

They have added advanced metrics we often find at FanGraphs for this season. Instead of using APIs to transfer over the data from college athletic sites, D1Baseball has now added helpful stats that save people like me time from calculating them out. 

Hitters Advanced Metrics

• Batted Ball Types (GB%, LD%, FB%)
• wRC+ 
• BABIP
• ISO
• HR/FB Rates

Pitchers Advanced Metrics

• FIP and xFIP
• Full slash line
• K% and BB%
• LOB%

The best-performing college hitters have wRC+ above 250. I won’t use that metric a lot because the average college hitter does not reach the majors. Nor are they someone who gets selected in a 20-round draft. But it adds flavor to say that Florida’s Jac Caglianone, tied for most home runs in the nation on 2/28, already has a 229 wRC+.

Batted ball data and strikeout-to-walk ratio for both hitters and pitchers is going to be helpful for me when video scouting. I can now quickly cross-check if a particular batter hits a lot of grounders in a series and compare it to their season total. 

Now if we can get a Baseball Savant version for College Baseball, we will be cooking with gas. Hell, we need it for the Minors Leagues, too. 

Battle of Shortstops: Gonzalez vs. Shaw

I was looking forward to watching an intriguing battle of shortstops with Maryland’s Matt Shaw vs. Ole Miss’s Jacob Gonzalez. The latter is a Top 5 MLB Draft prospect and the highest-ranked shortstop in this class. He has excellent defensive skills displaying both range and good hands fielding the position. What everyone was hoping for was another step forward in his offensive skills. 

Shaw is a bat-first shortstop for the Terrapins, and Ole Miss is dealing with pitching injuries, I thought we’ll get some highlight clips last weekend. 

Gonzalez had a very good series. After a pedestrian 1-for-4 with a hard-hit single on Friday when Maryland ran away with the game late, Gonzalez proceeded to go 3-for-4 with a walk on Saturday and 1-for-3 with another walk on Sunday. Gonzalez was 5-for-11 with 5 RBI and two walks to just one strikeout for the series.

Meanwhile, Shaw went 1-for-5 with a double and a run scored. One of his flyouts traveled to the warning track, and with eight swings total, Shaw only whiffed once. That was the best Shaw looked; it got very ugly on Saturday and Sunday. Shaw went 0-for-9 with seven strikeouts in the next two games and only reached base with two walks. 

In the first seven games of 2023, Shaw is striking out 29% of the time. For me, that’s a big red flag, and I will keep a close eye in the upcoming months to see if Shaw improves his contact. Against Delaware on Tuesday night, Shaw went 1-for-4 with a walk and strikeout. 

2023 MLB Draft Strength: College Starting Pitching

Two weeks into the season, and it’s very clear that there are four excellent college starting pitching prospects who could be considered in the Top 10 picks.

Chase Dollander: Tennessee’s Ace, after two starts, has generated more outs than baserunners allowed. He’s already struck out 19 batters in 10.1 innings which is a 45% K-rate. The only odd thing is Dollander has allowed a home run in both games, and he did have a blimp last year when giving up two home runs in back-to-back outings vs. Vanderbilt and Missouri. Besides that hiccup, Dollander has been his dominant self but now faces a serious challenger for best pitcher available in this draft class from Paul Skenes.

Paul Skenes: Speaking of Skenes, what a first impression he’s made on LSU after transferring from the Air Force. He’s chucking 99 mph fastballs and fooling hitters with his 90 mph changeups and nasty sliders. In his last start, Skenes hit 98 mph on his 98th pitch of the game. After two starts, Skenes is striking out 52.3% of the batters he’s faced. 

College pitchers typically have a tough time maintaining that velocity for over a few innings. Skenes early is proving he can and is making some adjust their draft boards to rank him as the #1 pitching prospect in this class. If he keeps throwing like this, Skenes could overtake his teammate Dylan Crews as the #1 prospect. 

Rhett Lowder: Wake Forest is garnering a lot of attention early for their impressive play, and Rhett Lowder is a good reason why. While he doesn't pump the impressive velocity numbers like Dollander or Skenes, Lowder has displayed a terrific ability to command all three of his pitches. The best could be his changeup which has excellent sinking action and messes with the hitter's timing. A lot of times, we only see right-handed pitchers throw offspeed against left-handed hitters, but Lowder is confident enough to throw against righties. After two starts spanning 12 innings, Lowder has only allowed one run on five hits and two walks while punching out 18 batters.

Hurston Waldrep: My early target for the White Sox at pick 15 is pitching so well to start the season that I have to believe he’s good enough to be taken into the Top 10. In his last start against Cincinnati, Waldrep went six innings on 100 pitches while striking out 13 batters. His command hasn’t been as on point as Dollander, Skenes, or Lowder, as Waldrep has walked five batters in two starts, but batters are having a tough time barreling him up. Of the seven hits allowed, only one extra-base hit (a double) off Waldrep. 

NCBWA Top 25 Week of 2/27/2023

Games I’m Watching this Weekend

#2 Florida vs. #17 Miami

One of my favorite non-conference matchups every season. This rivalry heightens up the play for both Florida and Miami players which will feature three potential first rounders (Wyatt Langford, Hurston Waldrep, and Yohandy Morales). 

#11 Virginia vs. Rhode Island

In the latest Sox Machine Podcast, I voiced my concern about the White Sox lack of catching depth throughout the farm system. I’m not advocating for the White Sox to take a need over the best player available in early March, but it’s time to look at Virginia’s Kyle Teel. After an impressive Freshman campaign hitting .330/.412/.522, Teel took a big step backward last year, finishing with a slash line of .276/.402/.439. 

Teel is off to a torrid start in his first eight games with a 1.366 OPS (.481/.588/.778) and two home runs. I’ll capture some film of his play over the weekend and share it in next week’s report.