PREAMBLE
The White Sox were very bad last year, and 2024 isn't looking much better. Jerry Reinsdorf wants to complete in 2024, so here's at minimum what they should probably do:
- Sign two to three top level starting pitchers (Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and maybe a flier on Giolito and/or Flaherty, as Josh said on the podcast, would be my plan)
- Sign (or probably trade for) a starting level second baseman (Gleyber Torres or Jonathan India maybe)
- Sign or trade for a starting level right fielder (Cody Bellinger would be, and spoilers is, my plan)
- Probably also want to sign a mid-level reliever that won't overly stress the rest of the bullpen and Liam Hendriks. Someone like Joe Kelly, but have it actually work out and have him be healthy for at least 2024.
Basically Jerry Reinsdorf would have to commit to a Rangers- or Padres-level spending spree to get anywhere near contention in 2024.
I'm thinking something different. An actual retooling where 2024 is punted in favor of betting on the 2025 AL Central or AL Wild Card race being weak enough that they can maybe slip into the playoffs and be the 2023 Diamondbacks.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Dylan Cease: $8.8M - tender
- Andrew Vaughn: $3.7M - tender I guess
- Michael Kopech: $3.6M - tender
- Touki Toussaint: $1.7M - tender
- Trayce Thompson: $1.7M - nontender
- Garrett Crochet: $900K - tender
- Clint Frazier: $900K - nontender
- Matt Foster: $740K - nontender
For Thompson and Frazier, maybe they come back for less money. Maybe they're never White Sox again. Maybe Trayce Thompson somehow makes his way back again. In whatever case, not worth it.
Foster was worth 0.3 fWAR and had a 4.39 FIP. He has an option left, but maybe there are probably better options (no pun intended) at $740k. Maybe he even comes back for just over the minimum instead.
Toussaint and Crochet are relative no-brainers for me. I mean someone's gotta pitch. Toussaint was worth 1 bWAR in 19 games (15 starts) for the White Sox and has a 5.00 FIP, both of which were better than Kopech.
For Kopech...If he finally figures it out and becomes a 3, 4 starter, great, what a deal. If he figures out his 2021 form again and becomes a great reliever, well a much better value than the $9m the White Sox spent on Joe Kelly last season.
CLUB OPTIONS
- Tim Anderson: $14M ($1M buyout) - buyout
- Liam Hendriks: $15M ($15M buyout, paid $1.5M annually over next 10 years) - buyout
Anderson had a huge dip in production in basically every aspect of his game, and I don't want to play the Craig Kimbrel game again. For a team where my goal is to dump payroll where I can, he's not worth it. Sorry Tim, but thank you for the memories. I'll still wear my 80s Anderson jersey to games.
Hendriks just deserves better. Maybe he really does want to be here, and the real life White Sox can turn this into something like a 2-year, $25m contract instead to replace the $15m or buyout. But again, dumping payroll.
MUTUAL OPTIONS
- Mike Clevinger: $12M mutual option ($4 million buyout) - buyout
He was never worth it.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Yasmani Grandal (Made $18.25M in 2023) - let go
- Elvis Andrus ($3M) - let go
- Bryan Shaw ($720K) - let go
- José Ureña ($720K) - let go
It was well into Ureña's White Sox career before I even realized he was a White Sox. I didn't remember it again until I read it just now.
Grandal, I love you, but you know it's time. Andrus, you, like Hendriks, also deserve better than the White Sox.
My memories of Bryan Shaw will be saying "wait who is that?" as I saw him walk to the bullpen in Oakland. Followed by Lucas Giolito walking toward the bullpen, and me being somehow more confused. What a weird day.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: Cody Bellinger (five years, $125m). Cody Bellinger could be a perennial MVP candidate, should he rebound even more to his actual MVP form. It's always possible. But the more important thing is that the White Sox sign (admittedly probably overpay just to get him) a guy that already knows the city and can play Gold Glove-level center field (filling in for Robert DHing or just days off) or right field, and he should play average first base should the White Sox move on from Vaughn. He played 84 games in center field and 54 games at first base for the Cubs in 2023, but has played 125 games in right field in his career. He and Luis Robert Jr. can patrol most of the outfield while Benintendi just does his best. His bat is a minimum probably ~65 wRC+, and that should still come with ~15 home run power (maybe more over Guaranteed Rate Field's short right field). The White Sox have to convince him to buy into a short term plan where they're going to compete in 2025.
No. 2: Eduardo Rodriguez (five years, $75m). Assuming the report is correct that he will opt out... I obviously have no insight as to why Rodriguez declined the trade to the Dodgers, besides that I read that he wanted to be closer to his family. But maybe Chicago is close enough to his family that he'll also buy into what the White Sox are building for 2025. He gets, as I think Josh said on the podcast, his contract again with a bit of a raise. He had a 3.66 FIP and was worth 3 WAR in 2023. It'll do.
No. 3: Lucas Giolito (one year, $10m). Lucas Giolito was bad after he left the White Sox, obviously. He had a 3.79 ERA with the White Sox, 6.89 ERA in six starts with the Angels, and 7.04 ERA in six starts with the Guardians. The White Sox should re-sign him for just a little under his arb number, Ethan Katz and Brian Bannister can fix him, and send him off again before he signs with a team he'll actually want to be with long term (maybe the White Sox in 2025!).
No. 4: Kolten Wong (one year, $4m). Wong hit .300/.353/.500 playing for the Dodgers, during which time I assume he hit almost exclusively against right-handed pitching. He won't be doing that with the White Sox, because he'll be signed as a buy low starting second base option. The White Sox can offer everyday plate appearances for him to bounce back to credible major league contributor, and maybe trade him at the deadline.
No. 5: Mike Zunino (one year, $1.5m). Someone's gotta catch and fill out the bottom of the lineup while the White Sox wait for Korey Lee or Carlos Pérez to figure it out, or Edgar Quero to debut. He'll be the Lucroy of 2024, but he'll actually make the roster for lack of better options. And also dear god the White Sox need someone that's not Lee/Pérez at catcher. Maybe Zunino will hit double digit homers in another three true outcomes season.
TRADES
No. 1: Trade Dylan Cease, Yoán Moncada, and Eloy Jiménez to Seattle for Bryan Woo and Josh Rojas. Woo started 18 games with a 4.36 FIP and was worth 1.0 fWAR. Rojas hit .272/.321/.400 after he joined the Mariners. Moncada hit .280/.323/.430 in August and .298/.344/.560 in September/October. Eight of his 11 home runs were in those three months, as were 20 of his 32 XBH. And Cease should still be Cease. Moncada fills the 2B void the Mariners are trying to figure out, and he'll figure it out faster than Rojas probably will. Rojas can be the project the White Sox have the time for. Same with Woo v. Cease. Jiménez can fill a void at DH that, like, Mike Ford was filling before. The Mariners need to compete now. This is currently (technically) accepted by the MLB Trade Simulator as a minor overpay by the Mariners, so I'll take it. Who knows with Jerry Dipoto.
SUMMARY
I did the math in my head, and estimated to be a little lazier, which is always dangerous, but anyway I believe that sets payroll around $165-170m (somehow), giving let's say $10m of wiggle room if my math is really bad (or more than $10m if it's bad in the other direction!). So I'm projecting my 2025 payroll to be in the range of ~$200m to fill another SP slot or two, and probably two positions somewhere in the infield. But this should be a solid outfield for 2024 and to at least 2027.
Starters:
SP Eduardo Rodriguez
SP Lucas Giolito
SP Bryan Woo
SP Michael Kopech
SP Touki Toussaint
Lineup:
C Korey Lee
1B Andrew Vaughn
2B Kolten Wong
3B Josh Rojas
SS Lenyn Sosa
LF Andrew Benintendi
CF Luis Robert
RF Cody Bellinger
Bench:
C Mike Zunino
IF/OF Gavin Sheets
IF Zach Remillard or Romy Gonzalez
Some credible, actual outfielder. Maybe just Oscar Colas.
Relievers:
RP Aaron Bummer
RP Tanner Banks
RP Garrett Crochet
RP Jimmy Lambert
I dunno three other relievers whose names I don't recognize.
CL Gregory Santos
