PREAMBLE
This is going to be a transition year, from the “window of contention” White Sox to the “let’s try this again” White Sox. The 2024 season will be the bridge between them. I expect another 100 loss season and the firing of manager Pedro Grifol and his staff following the 2024 season.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Dylan Cease: $8.8M (tender)
Andrew Vaughn: $3.7M (tender)
Michael Kopech: $3.6M (tender)
Touki Toussaint: $1.7M (tender)
Trayce Thompson: $1.7M (non-tender)
Garrett Crochet: $900,000 (tender)
Clint Frazier: $900,000 (non-tender)
Matt Foster: $740,000 (tender)
Most of these are no-brainers. Cease is the ace of the staff, Vaughn is a former third-overall pick in the MLB Draft and Crochet was also a first-round pick. On the flip side of that, Thompson (a 37 OPS+ in 36 games with the Sox in 2023) and Frazier (a 52 OPS+ in 33 games with the Sox) should have played themselves off any MLB roster going forward and should consider going to Japan or South Korea. I think this will be Kopech’s last chance to amount to something. Toussaint showed enough in 2023 to at least be a depth piece or a spot starter. Foster is coming off injury but will only be making the league minimum and this team needs pitching in the worst way.
CLUB OPTIONS
Tim Anderson: $14M ($1M buyout) (pick up)
Liam Hendriks: $15M ($15M buyout, paid over 10 years at $1.5M) (buyout)
I’ll address TA later but I would definitely pick up the option to begin the offseason. Hendriks is a special case, considering his Tommy John surgery but there’s no reason to spend $15 million this year on a pitcher who won’t be pitching for a team that won’t be contending. Don’t feel bad, he’ll still be getting $1.5 million a year and that’s more than most of us are making.
MUTUAL OPTIONS
Mike Clevinger: $12M ($4 million buyout) (I think he’ll take the buyout)
I wasn’t a fan of Clevinger, and I’m not a fan now. Yes, he was the best pitcher on this team in 2023, that says more about the state of the Sox starting staff than it does about Clevinger. His numbers were good (3.77 ERA, 9 wins, 3.3 WAR, 118 ERA+) and maybe he can get a multi-year deal with a contender to be a fifth starter, which is what he was supposed to be when he signed with the Sox.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Yasmani Grandal (Made $18.25M in 2023) (let him walk)
Elvis Andrus ($3M) (let him walk)
Bryan Shaw ($720,000) (resign him)
Jose Urena ($720,000) (let him walk)
Grandal will forever be the face of the failed rebuild, a $72 million contract for an OPS+ of 99 and a cumulative WAR of 2.5 over four years. Nothing says “White Sox” more than that. Andrus and Urena were just “the best of the bad options” that were available when they signed. Shaw is a different matter entirely. He was a horse coming out of the bullpen in 2023 and while his ERA was a tad high (4.14) he finished 17 games (including four saves) and struck out 40 and walked 17 in 45.2 innings. This is the same guy who lead the league pitching in 81 games in 2021 with the Guardians. I’d absolutely bring him back, with a nice raise, say $900,000. He earned it.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: Gary Sanchez, Catcher (two years, $16 million). This guy can do everything Grandal was supposed to do, but, you know, actually DO IT. He’s only 30 but he’s a veteran of nine years. Last season he hit 19 home runs (compared to eight for Grandal) to go along with a 2.4 WAR. All that while making $1.5 million. This team needs a catcher who has some success doing the job and he’s done it. I don’t care about the .217 batting average, 136 strikeouts. He’s still a major net-positive over what’s on the roster right now. In two years, the Sox can call up Edgar Quero and Sanchez can move on.
No. 2: Lucas Giolito and Jack Flaherty, Pitchers (each at one year, $15 million with an option for 2025). Buying on the cheap, two guys who need to rebuild their value after having lackluster 2023 seasons, reuniting with Sox pitching coach Ethan Katz (as most people know, he was their pitching coach at Harvard-Westlake High School) and that not only fills out two-fifths of the rotation for 2024 but also gives two good trade chips at the 2024 trade deadline. There’s nothing to not like about this option, considering the Sox needs in the rotation and the young pitchers they acquired at the 2023 deadline are nowhere close to ready to compete for a rotation spot.
No. 3: Whit Merrifield, 2B/RF(two years, $15 million). Clearly on the downside of his career but Merrifield hit .272 last season and stole 26 bases for the Blue Jays. He’s already being mentioned as a free agent target by the Sox and would fill a need at either second base or right field. Reuniting with Chris Getz and Pedro Grifol should also make for a nice landing for Merrifield. While he’s certainly not great (0.8 WAR in 2023) he’s better than any of the options currently on the roster at either position he plays. I see him more as a second baseman while the Sox wait to see if Oscar Colas can figure out how to play baseball because he’s not going anywhere soon. Merrifield can also bring some badly-needed leadership to this team of fools. It’s an upgrade from nothing.
TRADES
This is the hardest thing to try to forecast, because no one knows who is available or who could be traded for whom.
No. 1: Trade Eloy Jimenez to the Milwaukee Brewers for 3B/1B Luke Adams. Yes, Adams is not the Brewers’ top prospect (he ranks in the 20’s) but Sox fans always seem to massively overvalue the players and prospects in this organization. Jimenez is nothing special. He had one good fluke season in 2019 and it’s been all downhill since then. This will also free up about $13 million in payroll. Adams isn’t a great hitter (.245 in 371 MiLB at-bats) but he stole 30 bases in 2023 at Class A and had an OPS of .801. He can play first base or third base as well. Eloy would be the first guy out the door if I was trying to fix this mess (I guess I lied, Moncada would be the first guy out the door but there is no way anyone is going to take on that $24 million salary he’ll earn next season). Jimenez is an overrated bum who just doesn’t fit here anymore.
No. 2: Trade Tim Anderson to the Atlanta Braves for P Seth Keller and OF Isaiah Drake. The White Sox make this move after exercising TA’s $14M option for 2024. Some Sox fans may think TA has to be worth at least Ronald Acuna or Spencer Strider (I can literally see Southside Showdown suggesting a trade like that) but the fact is TA was one of the worst hitters and defensive players in the Major Leagues in 2023. That batting title was a long time ago, and so was the 20/20 season. TA had a -2.0 WAR and an OPS+ of 60 in 2023. So I’m looking at a couple of middling prospects with the Braves. Keller is intriguing as he’s known more for his off-speed pitches than his fastball and Drake is a known speedster with a good glove whose bat may take some time to develop. But I think that potential is worth one season of TA and the Braves could get the best of TA (a .300 average, 20+ home runs and stolen bases) when he’s on a team where he’s not expected to lead or be the face of the franchise. And if he can turn the clock back to 2019, he’d be an upgrade over current Braves shortstop Orlando Arcia.
SUMMARY
This would be my every day lineup: Sanchez (catcher), Vaughn/Gavin Sheets (1B), Merrifield/Lenyn Sosa/Jose Rodriguez (2B), Sosa/Rodriguez (SS), Moncada (3B), Andrew Benintendi (LF), Luis Robert (CF), Colas/Sheets/Merrifield (RF) and Sheets/Vaughn (DH). Zach Remillard would be my top utility player.
The pitching rotation: Cease, Giolito, Flaherty, Toussaint and Kopech.
The bullpen: Gregory Santos (closer), Bryan Shaw, Garrett Crochet, Aaron Bummer, Declan Cronin, Lane Ramsey, Matt Foster and Tanner Banks. I would also keep Kopech as a fifth starter/long reliever and hope he finally learns how to pitch.
With these moves I think the Sox could top off at 80-82, and make some more legit moves going into 2025 when Moncada comes off the books.
