PREAMBLE
How can we fill our holes (ON THE ROSTER, not horny WST), not impact 2025, when we can really compete and actually do something different to try and create an edge.
This plan is going to attempt to build a team that would need to catch lightening in a bottle for 2024… but could. The real value of this plan is making 2025 and beyond better.
We are going to do this by structuring free agent signings in a really untraditional way. Normally teams backload contracts, in order to be able to afford more talent in the here and now. We are going to FRONT LOAD signings, in order to provide more budget for 2025, when Montgomery, Ramos and Nastrini will be here to help Robert.
What do we achieve by front loading ? Well we create excess value after the first expensive year (a year we aren’t desperate to win in). This excess value turns the signing into a great trade asset or frees money to add further, as we now aren’t paying market value in year two.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Dylan Cease: $8.8M Tender. This doesn’t need an explanation. If we don’t catch lightening in a bottle and he improves, we will be saying goodbye at the deadline however.
- Andrew Vaughn: $3.7M Tender. I wouldn’t pay him 5 mil for a 1 WAR season, so this is his last season to show he is worth a number 3 pick
- Michael Kopech: $3.6M Tender - No idea if he ends up a starter or a reliever, either way it’s too soon to give up at this price. For 2024 he gets one last shot in the rotation. We are basically praying that Bannister is a pitching whisperer.
- Touki Toussaint: $1.7M Tender - He gives us innings we are severely lacking
- Trayce Thompson: $1.7M Non-Tender
- Garrett Crochet: $900K Tender - I would love him to become Hader… I’ll take a safe 7th inning option:
- Clint Frazier: $900K Non-Tender
- Matt Foster: $740K Tender - this is league min. We have nothing to lose at this price.
CLUB OPTIONS
Write “pick up” or “decline” or “rework” after the option.
- Tim Anderson: $14M ($1M buyout) pick up - The free agent market is barren. TA7 got injured, impacting his play and at the WBC he looked good. A healthy TA7 could still be worth 2 WAR. 1 War is worth 8 mil. Basically I predict he will earn this money… and we don’t have many other options.
- Liam Hendriks: $15M ($15M buyout, paid $1.5M annually over next 10 years) There are three economic principles competing in this decision. For signing is ROI (return on investment) say he plays 1/5th of the season at the value of his contact. The is ROI will be 20%. If we buy him out, the ROI on that 15 mil is 0%. Basically the only way to get some value on the money is to pay now. Against is inflation. 15 mil spread out is worth less than 15 mil paid today. The last one is opportunity cost, and that is our deciding factor. Ultimately this 13.5mil swing allows us to pick up something that could help us in 2025. In spite of my love for Liam and my respect for his courage, he won’t be coming back.
MUTUAL OPTIONS
Write “exercised” or “takes buyout.”
- Mike Clevinger: $12M mutual option ($4 million buyout)Buyout - aiming for being realistic here, I can’t see him taking his end of the option, so let’s play this out without him.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, extend qualifying offer, or let go?
- Yasmani Grandal (Made $18.25M in 2023)
- Elvis Andrus ($3M)
- Bryan Shaw ($720K)
- José Ureña ($720K)
None of the below are coming back straight away… happy to circle back to Shaw however if his market isn’t there.
What do we have to work with.
$87 mil to obligations and options
$19.44 to Arb players
$5.5 mil to Leury Legend
$1 mil to Abreu
$4 mil Clev buy out
$10 mil to league min players on 40 man
So far we have spent $126.94 mil
This gives us $58 mil to spend
FREE AGENTS
Teoscar Hernandez - Right Fielder
Teoscar is a legit right fielder… imagine having one of those. He was a 2 war player last year, but normally performs at 3 war. Market value for him should be about $20 mil a season and at aged 30, he is going to want 3 years or more. This is where we start implementing our front load strategy. Contract is 30/15/15 for a total of $60 mil over three years. If we need to go to a fourth we would likely need to go for a $20 mil club option with a decent buy out, but for now let’s ignore that. If this option disappears due to Teoscar taking a qualifying offer, we basically do the same trick but much smaller with Jorge Soler, two years split 20/12 for a total of $32 mil.
Shota Imanaga - left handed starter
Imanaga has multiple pitches, had a tiny walk rate in Japan and a good strike out rate. The risk is the transition to the league and high home run rate. This is a fun gamble, home run rates fluctuate anyway. The cost will be closer to back end starter cost due to this risk plus having to pay a posting fee (not part of the budget, Jerry has paid that out of the kindness of his heart). Again we are looking to exploit how contracts work to create excess value for the future. Total cost $46 mil over three years, split 18/14/14. Happy to get creative on a fourth year option, if that is what’s needed to get this done. What Imanaga actually signs for could be a lot more or less than this, due to how unpredictable his market will be. I’d happily go 70 mil over 4 years top end, after that for me the risk gets too high. Plan B for this is Stroman opting out and we front load his new deal.
Jack Flaherty - Right handed Starter
This is the lightning in a bottle play. He’s previously been ace level, is 28 and could click working with his old pal Katz…. Or he could pitch 100 innings of 5era ball… either way, who cares, we prob aren’t gonna winning in 2024 anyway, so let’s gamble. Say he returns to greatness, we can trade him if out of the race or offer him a QO for next year. 1 year 10 mil, with incentives
TRADES
Ben Rortvedt (Yankees) for DJ Gladney. This trade is the potential to bite us, but we need to at least attempt to field something at catcher and do it cheaply. So why Rortvedt? Essentially he becomes the left handed bat in a catcher platoon. Chances are he can’t hit at the majors, so what. We needed to catch lightning in a bottle anyway this year and Rortvedt could break out. What he does have is a 60 grade glove. He will look good behind the plate and we can mix him with the other catchers easily. Lastly, word on the street is that the Yankees are going to move on a a catcher. Plan B is Austin Hedges as a free agent signing.
SUMMARY
So what have we achieved so far… we have front loaded contracts and still managed to fill right field, two starters and a catcher. We will need some real breaks outs from a bunch of people to compete with this line up… but that was always the case.
2025 now looks brighter, as we have some extra pieces around Robert, in a way that massively gives us flexibility in next years free agency, after Yoan either breaks out or can be removed from the books.
Starters
Cease
Kopech
Imanaga
Flaherty
Toussaint
If Bannister cannot fix Kopech, Nastrini or Davis Martin take his spot and Kopech goes to the pen.
Arm Barn
Foster
Bummer
Crochet
Patino
Ramsey
Santos
Deivi Garcia
Rule 5 draft project - we pick high and can take our choice of high upside reliever
This is the worst Arm barn in recent memory… the good news is, it is really cheap other than Bummer. We are looking to create trade candidates at the deadline or catch lightening in a bottle. 3 lefties in the barn gives Pedro nice mix and match options. We also have Davis Martin and Jordan Leasure to come in when one of the above inevitably get smashed around in April.
Line up… not in batting order
Catcher - Rortvedt
First base - Vaughn
Second Base - genuine position battle in spring between Missy fav Romy, Sosa and my current fav (upside pick) Rodriguez
Third Base - Moncada
Short Stop - TA7
Left field - Benintendi (I hate this but he can’t be moved)
Centre field - Robert
Right field - Teoscar Hernandez
DH - Eloy Jimenez
Bench thoughts
Back up catcher/right handed a platoon Battle between Perez, Lee and Hackenberg.
Anyone who can play all three outfield positions without embarrassing themself. Anyone know where Adam Eaton is ?
The second place finisher in the 2nd place try outs.
And lastly, anyone not named Gavin Sheets.
End thoughts
This season has multiple potential outcomes
Most likely - the team sucks, we can move some of these players to improve for 2025, even the new signings, due to the contract structures and we can learn Grifol isn’t our guy.
Least Likely - a lot of things work out and we can add at the deadline to compete, without compromising 2025.
