PREAMBLE
It is really sad to think of how far removed this should-be-fun exercise is from the reality of how the actual organization will operate this offseason. We're likely to get some uncreative, boring, small moves that won't really do much of anything to change the team's outlook. But here's an attempt to do something outside the box and yet still within the realm of somewhat plausibility.
Point of it all is the Sox need quality and depth, but also a giant statement move. There is a ton — a ton — of starting pitchers in free agency, which is actually great for the Sox to rebuild their rotation. There are a lot of options to plug and play, even if you stay away from the highest end. Those mid tier FAs are the bulk of my plan.
Trades? After one huge blockbuster, I don't plan for any others. Guys like Eloy, Yoan and Cease, all coming off down seasons, fall into the cliched "more valuable to us" category, so trying to arrange trades for them to extract a ton of value is a fool's errand. Might as well give them one more chance here.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Dylan Cease: $8.8M – Tender
- Andrew Vaughn: $3.7M – Tender
- Michael Kopech: $3.6M – Tender, but he's moving to the bullpen
- Touki Toussaint: $1.7M – Tender
- Trayce Thompson: $1.7M – Nontender
- Garrett Crochet: $900K – Tender
- Clint Frazier: $900K – Nontender
- Matt Foster: $740K – Tender
CLUB OPTIONS
- Tim Anderson: $14M ($1M buyout) – Decline
- Liam Hendriks: $15M ($15M buyout, paid $1.5M annually over next 10 years) – Decline
MUTUAL OPTIONS
- Mike Clevinger: $12M mutual option ($4 million buyout) – Takes buyout, one way or the other
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Yasmani Grandal (Made $18.25M in 2023) – He gawn
- Elvis Andrus ($3M) – He gawn initially, but could still be in consideration
- Bryan Shaw ($720K) – Bring him back for the pen
- José Ureña ($720K) – He gawn
FREE AGENTS
Here come the starters. Salary projections from MLB Trade Rumors.
No. 1: Eduardo Rodriguez (four years, $82M). As you'll see throughout, I value higher floor, consistency and above all, innings eaters. Nola, Montgomery and Yamamoto would all be great, but with projected nine-figure deals, they won't be realistic or cost effective. Snell is great too, but I find his five-and-dive style overvalued for a hefty commitment. Need to spread the wealth.
ERod will take the ball. He's had some health and off-the-field issues in the past, but they seem to be behind him, and he's coming off a great year. This is a good deal for a No. 2/3 starter, and it's nice to have a lefty on the staff.
No. 2: Sonny Gray (four years, $90M). This feels like a reasonable price, another good deal for another No. 2/3 starter. He eats innings. At age 34, four years seems a little long for a commitment, but "It's time for a few small repairs" I say, so Sonny, come home with a vengeance. Bonus, this takes away from the rival Twins.
No. 3: Jack Flaherty (three years, $40M). Truth be told, I wanted Giolito here, but MLBTR projected him at $22M/year, which is just too high. If that ends up being the going rate, I'll settle for Flaherty, who still has some upside and comes in at a more reasonable 13.3M/year rate. Seth Lugo could be worth a look here also.
No. 4: Kenta Maeda (two years, $36M). Maeda hasn't amassed a lot of innings in a season in a while, but he's a good veteran ballast for a No. 5 starter. Hopefully another year removed from his injury will have him stronger than he was in 2023. As with Sonny Gray, it doesn't hurt that he's being taken away from a division rival. Tyler Mahle might work as a backup for this spot.
And a few position players:
No. 5: Whit Merrifield (two years, $18M). You know the Sox want him, I know the Sox want him, everyone knows the Sox want him. I am somewhat resigned to this happening, and I am skeptical. But I've come around a little. He throws enough leather at 2B to be credible, and brings at least some skills at the plate that are valuable.
No. 6: Victor Caratini (one year, $5M). Switch hitting catcher. Someone has to play behind the dish.
No. 7: Paul DeJong (one year, $6M). It's a weak crop of FA shortstops, but the good news is there are three that provide dependable, solid D, and that's all I'm looking for here. DeJong, Andrus or Isiah Kiner-Falefa all work, and I could be convinced of any of them. Just a placeholder until Colson comes at some point in '24 or '25 anyway.
TRADES
Just one, but it's a whopper:
No. 1: Trade Oscar Colas, Noah Schultz, Ky Bush and Aaron Bummer to San Diego for Fernando Tatis Jr. There it is. Both these teams need a culture change, and this blockbuster upends things, oh, just a bit. The Padres want to clear payroll, and while Tatis only earns $11M in 2024, this will save them more then $300M over the duration of the epic length deal. They can then decide to plow that money into Juan Soto. (They can take a few bucks back in Bummer in the swap.) For the Sox, there's your superstar RF.
Let's be honest people, the Sox need a star, and there just aren't many avenues to it. They had their shot with the run of Harper, Machado, Springer, Turner, et. al. available the last few years. They whiffed miserably on all of them. There just aren't any big ones like that available in FA anytime soon (save Ohtani, which is understandably not happening, and Soto, who may not even get there). MLBTR projects Cody Bellinger for 12 years and $264M. That is utter madness. Even if that's a little on the high side, stay away. Alex Bregman is a FA after next year. I don't see it happening.
The Sox need something like this to energize fans. It's a big risk, of course. But the hope would be that Tatis has matured and learned from his two years of motor bike accidents and PED suspensions. I'd like to test the Padres' appetite for pitching in a few million per year for the last few years of this deal, Nolan Arenado style, but it's workable without that.
Prices are only going to get higher for FAs in the future, and JR will not sign a precedent-setting contract. But just maybe we can trade for one, since it's already signed and no longer a record. Technicalities matter to this organization. So let's strike now. Reinsdorf doesn't have to suffer the indignity of signing a record-setting deal.
The contract isn't great. But it could be better than others. Ten years from now, Tatis will be 35 years old and making $36M. Meanwhile, Trea Turner will be 40 years old earning $27M. Aaron Judge will make $40M when he's age 39. Bad money happens at the end of deals.
The talent plays — Gold Glove in RF and Silver Slugger with the bat. The story plays — fun angle of coming full circle back to the Sox. Let's make some news.
SUMMARY
Lineup:
Tatis Jr. RF
Benintendi LF
Robert CF
Jimenez DH
Moncada 3B
Vaughn 1B
Merrifield 2B
Caratini C
DeJong SS
Rotation:
Cease
Rodriguez
Gray
Giolito
Maeda
My bullpen is more nebulous, but it would feature Michael Kopech, who clearly is just not cutting it as a starter. He's definitely a guy who could fill any number of important and high leverage rolls in the pen. Crochet, Shaw, Santos, Toussaint, Leisure and others are around, but of course the most significant bullpen pieces usually come out of nowhere from non prospects, NRIs, midseason acquisitions, etc., so I don't see a point in planning it out too completely here.
Payroll comes in right around $200M. That is hardly a big ask.
The defense is better than it's been in years. The pitching staff is solid and deep enough. The hitting, well, some of the underachievers will have to live up to their potential. But this team could win the division. Sox fans would believe the org cares. And interest would be markedly up.
