The Hall of Fame announced its Class of 2024, and Adrian Beltre, Todd Helton and Joe Mauer joining Jim Leyland as Cooperstown's newest members this summer.
Mark Buehrle fell about 67 percent short of the 75-percent threshold, but he reached a fifth ballot in uncertain times, and that's good enough for now.
Buehrle earned 8.3 percent of the vote in this cycle, which was down from the 10.9 percent he garnered in 2023, but more than the 7.4 percent that Ryan Thibodaux's Hall of Fame tracker showed before the BBWAA released the results. Just like Buehrle outperformed his ERA more often than not, he ends up beating his known vote percentage when the smoke clears.
There isn't a path to 75 percent for Buehrle, but at least the backlog eases up a bit. Four spots on the 2025 ballot open up after the elections of Beltre, Helton and Mauer, along with the expiration of Gary Sheffield's eligibility. Meanwhile, the 2025 ballot will only feature two presumptive Hall of Famers in Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia, and no first-ballot types in 2026.
The biggest danger is that Buehrle's résumé looks less impressive compared to Sabathia's, and so voters lose their enthusiasm. However, if enough voters remain consistent, Buehrle's case could strengthen by the starting pitchers who show up below him, because Buehrle had more going for him than Felix Hernández, Jon Lester and Cole Hamels over the next three ballots. Voters shrugging at the best that half of MLB players have to offer year after year, being unmoved by both peak cases (Johan Santana) and career cases (Buehrle, et al), will inevitably require a recontextualization at some point.
As for the rest of the vote totals, here are the results for the players who cleared 5 percent. There were no close calls on the other side of the threshold, as José Bautista and Victor Martínez both netted a half-dozen votes apiece, good for 1.6 percent.
A handful of things that jump out to me:
Billy Wagner: While explaining his ballot, Sam Miller didn't vote for Wagner, but he said that he wasn't rooting against Wagner to make it, and he especially hoped Wagner didn't miss by one vote. The good news is that Wagner missed by five, so no voter should feel especially guilty. The history of BBWAA voting and human nature suggests that he'll get over the hump next year, because nobody wants to feel responsible for that level of disappointment.
Bobby Abreu: Todd Helton climbed all the way from 16.5 percent to gain entry into the Hall with four years to spare, but every year on the ballot featured significant jumps, the smallest being a 7.1 percent increase from 2021 to 2022. Abreu had a little bit of a breakthrough last year going from 8.6 percent to 15.4 percent, but it doesn't seem like he'll sustain it.
Andruw Jones: Jones had been experiencing those Heltonesque leaps, but after a 17 percent jump from 2022 to 2023, he only gained 3.5 percent this time around. He has three more chances to close the remaining gap, but between his lack of production after age 30, and the domestic violence charge he pleaded guilty to in 2012, there are baseball and character reasons to explain why the limits of his support might be lower than the traditional steady climber.
Carlos Beltrán: Some voters let Beltrán out of the penalty box for his role in the Astros' trash can scheme after one year, but we'll still probably need another cycle to see how many people still hold it against him.
Andy Pettitte: PED ties aside, Pettitte's Hall of Fame case could best be described as Buehrle Plus because of the extensive postseason experience. His support also slid, so it's tough sledding for every starting pitcher.
