Sox Machine Staff 2024 MLB Predictions

Funny, last year we poked fun at our 2022 Sox Machine staff predictions which we all though the Chicago White Sox would win 90 or more games. We tempered our expectations last year and dropped our predicted win total in the 80's. How foolish we looked.

Back at the bottom of the barrel, there isn't much hope for the 2024 White Sox, but perhaps there are paths to a successful season. Here's our guesses for the upcoming season, and feel free to join along with your picks in the comments below.

JIM MARGALUS

What does the best case scenario look like?

Probably what James outlined in his interview with Pedro Grifol -- a 75-win team that doesn't excite, but succeeds on the margins in a way that always eluded them in the years where they were trying. Dominic Fletcher, Drew Thorpe, Nick Nastrini and Colson Montgomery all contribute enough to where you understand why they'll be projectable in the coming years.

What does the worst case scenario look like?

None of the patches hold, few if any prospects look ready, Pedro Grifol shows no acumen as a leader, a culture never forms because it's every man for himself, the White Sox struggle to win 50 games and don't even have a first-overall pick to show for it.

White Sox win-loss season prediction and why?

54-108; Last place in AL Central

My instinct says something like 60-102, but I'm going to say 54-108 because 1) it's way spicier, and 2) the elements are all there for Chris Getz's first season to go spectacularly wrong, and I want to be ready for it.

White Sox Breakout Player: Jairo Iriarte. He's the 10th name I considered, but I think if he's able to produce at the MLB level, that development would feel the leap-iest.

MLB PREDICTIONS

JOSH NELSON

What does the best case scenario look like? 

As Michael Kopech punches out Javier Baez for his 30th save, the Chicago White Sox accomplish what seemed impossible. They improved by 18 games from their disastrous 2023 season to finish 79-83 and outlast the Minnesota Twins to win the 2024 American League Central. 

After the season, Chris Getz thanks manager Pedro Grifol for his hard work but decides the team must go in another direction after getting swept by Baltimore in the playoffs. 

What does the worst case scenario look like? 

It’s June 1, and over 250 fans are tailgating with Sox Machine in Milwaukee to watch the 18-41 White Sox. Spirits are still high even though confidence is not with this Sox team, but hey, Garrett Crochet is pitching. In the third inning, Crochet’s left arm bothers him as he walks off the mound. James Fegan reports that Crochet is out for the season with a left elbow injury two days later.

It’s September 29, and the Detroit Tigers are celebrating. After sweeping the White Sox, AJ Hinch and his squad celebrate winning the AL Central title. Somewhere, Rick Hahn smirks. The White Sox finished 2024 with a 45-117 record.

After the season, Getz thanked manager Pedro Grifol for his hard work and declared he’ll return for the 2025 season.

White Sox win-loss season prediction  

61-101; Last place in AL Central

The 2023 Chicago White Sox had a .327 winning percentage after August 1. Which would be a 53-109 record pace. I think the White Sox today are better than where they finished last year, but I cannot see how this current squad wins more than 70 games. It will take tremendous seasons from Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi, and Andrew Vaughn to realize that dream. Those four players are incredibly undependable, and I haven’t even mentioned the inevitable injuries yet. 

Circle May 17 - June 26 on the calendar. Those five weeks could be the worst win-loss record spanning 38 games in White Sox history, held by the 1932 squad who went 8-30 from July 24 to September 2. 

White Sox Breakout Player: Dominic Fletcher

Last year, my pick was Jose Ruiz, who lasted 3.2 innings with the White Sox before getting cut. I’m hoping that Dominic Fletcher lasts longer than Ruiz did and finishes with a 1+ WAR season—the first for a White Sox right fielder since 2017.

MLB PREDICTIONS

JAMES FEGAN

What does the best case scenario look like?

A top-10 defense props up a fairly ground-ball oriented staff, overcoming the lack of elite bat-missers. Playing in a division where the White Sox are rarely running into a truly goofy talent disparity, they play an excessive amount of close, low-scoring games. Think the baseball version of this current Bulls team, without the torturous delusion that they should be a lot better. They win 75 games, but always feel a few bad breaks away from .500, and save the jobs of most of the coaching staff for another year.

Their offense is not good, but the frequency of games where they are a rally away from flipping the outcome makes every manufactured run feel heroic. Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jiménez have a handful of heroball moments in big series, prompting outcries of "this is such a sneaky fun team!" after a triumph at Wrigley, eliding that time they scored two runs all weekend in a three-game sweep in San Diego. Colson Montgomery lives on base for all of September and Drew Thorpe's changeup misses major league bats in a late-season cameo. Bryan Ramos looks a little raw but hits a couple moonshots, including a home run to the concourse that spills the beer of some jerk who was in the middle of espousing lazy racist tropes about the South Side. Everyone cheers.

What does the worst case scenario look like?

Injuries knock out Robert and Jiménez for protracted portions of the first half and the offense is consistently overwhelmed by any pitcher who is commanding their stuff. Control problems are frequent for Garrett Crochet and Nick Nastrini out of the gate, Chris Flexen is the same as last year's Chris Flexen, and Pedro Grifol is triaging the situation while simultaneously figuring out who in the bullpen is competent at the same time.

Being 20 games under .500 by Memorial Day takes the wind out of the sails for the team mission and Guaranteed Rate Field feels like a mausoleum on weeknights. The Yoán Moncada era ends not with a bang, nor a trade, but the Sox eating the buyouts of his team option. The center field shrubbery turns a disturbing shade of black for reasons that puzzle even the great Roger Bossard.

White Sox win-loss season prediction

64-98; Last place in AL Central

I was willing to get very romantic about numbers starting with 7 before the Dylan Cease trade, but now a situation where the rotation starts cracking up before Davis Martin, Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, or anyone else can reasonably be expected to help seems much more likely. The offense seems to need multiple breakouts and team approach overhaul to be within a standard deviation of average. If the White Sox frequently got the kind of luck that this club would need to be .500, they would have multiple division banners from the last 15 years.

MLB PREDICTIONS

TED MULVEY

What does the best case scenario look like?

In 2019, the team played hard for then-manager Ricky Renteria and improved ten wins from the season prior. A ten-win improvement from last season’s disastrous 61-101 finish seems like it could be the best result for this season.

To reach such a scenario will require the White Sox pitching identification and development apparatus to hit on the players they’ve brought in to staff the rotation and bullpen; improved defense; and, plus-offensive seasons from some combination of Robert Jr., Vaughn, Moncada, Jimenez, and Benintendi. Finally, up-and-comers in Colson Montgomery and Bryan Ramos make meaningful contributions immediately after their call-ups in August.

What does the worst case scenario look like?

Injuries plague the team, as they always seem to do in recent years. Without the few above average (or in the case of Robert, Jr., excellent) players in the offensive fold, this White Sox team’s lack of depth is underscored, and the team struggles to reach the already-paltry run scoring expectations it had entering the season.

With run scoring at a premium, defense and pitching press to the point that 1-0 leads in the second inning quickly become 12-1 deficits by the fifth. Meanwhile, Colson Montgomery, Bryan Ramos and the rest of the farm system plateau. There is no hope for the major league roster, and it doesn’t appear there’s anything coming from below, either.

White Sox win-loss season prediction

62-100; Last place in AL Central

Despite my predicting this team finishing just one win better than last season it doesn’t have the same level of expectations, so maybe it isn’t as hard of a watch as 2023? This team is banking on the pitching and defense panning out, but as outlined in the worst-case scenario above, they’re always a couple of injuries away from having to use “depth” you’d rather not see.

The defense should legitimately improve and maybe that does bolster the pitching more than is projected. Outside of Luis Robert, Jr., though, the offense seems to be what it looks like on paper until proven otherwise and unlike Shohei Ohtani’s former interpreter I’m not willing to take that wild bet.

White Sox Breakout Player: Nick Nastrini

MLB PREDICTIONS