The greatest trick White Sox scouting director Mike Shirley ever pulled was managing to surprise the industry while taking a player type he's already spent multiple first round picks on during his five years running drafts.
But to be fair, even fifth overall pick Hagen Smith didn't profess to have seen it coming.
"I met with them the one time before the draft, maybe two or three weeks ago in Omaha," Smith said of the White Sox display of interest. "Honestly, I really didn't have that much idea going into it. I talked to them in the past, maybe a few weeks ago leading up to the draft. But nothing, really, up until the phone call right before the pick from my agent."
Shirley certainly did not lack for confidence in Smith, liberally sprinkling in comparisons to Chris Sale, Garrett Crochet and Noah Schultz and how he fits into a group full of "elite athletes with elite stuff." But he also avoided the cliche of 'This was the No. 1 guy on our board all along,' instead describing a draft that had an unusual amount of uncertainty up top, with cascading effects. Shirley said ultimately six players were in play for them at the end with the No. 5 pick.
"There was a lot of monetary values being factored into that," Shirley said. "It was delicate. The Guardians, everyone in the league was waiting on them to make that selection. It got tricky. There were a lot of opportunities we examined, but we were super excited about Hagen. He was a target amongst that group of players."
It certainly painted a picture more of the Sox being excited about Smith at the price they got him at rather than locked onto a single target, especially with needing to buy two prep players out of their college commitments in the next two picks. Even for the Sox landing Smith, I was told that involved successfully outbidding another interested team in the left-hander behind them in the draft.
"We were in conversations with many players," Shirley said. "The players that went in front of us, we were in conversation with them. We were playing the financial game. We understood what was going on in the industry. It’s our job to exhaust every avenue to make the right pick. So, it was delicate what Cincinnati was going to do at No. 2. It worked to the rest of the draft. We felt comfortable with what Oakland was going to do in front of us. We were aggressive in front of us. We were trying to acquire a lot of pieces. It was a quality draft at the top."
Area Codes
White Sox front office staffers and scouts know their team does not outbid the Dodgers and Yankees for free agents, so you often find them trying to establish a niche and dominate it.
Throwing the bulk of the international bonus pool after older Cuban prospects hasn't borne fruit in a while. But when I followed along J.J. Lally last month as he was literally trying to make decisions on this coming summer's Area Codes team, he repeatedly mentioned that this past year's version was the best White Sox Area Codes squad he had seen in years, containing a slew of likely first-day draft picks. This is rare, as the Sox team is composed of the best talent from 17 midwestern states that tend be limited by cold weather.
Unsurprisingly, the Sox sought to reap the returns of a unique crest of talent of a region they seek to dominate, as both infielder Caleb Bonemer and left-handed pitcher Blake Larson are midwestern natives who played on that team, even though the latter had transferred to IMG Academy in Florida.
What also helped is Bonemer dominating the team's signature event, as the right-handed infielder showing off his pull power at Area Codes in front of team officials -- and also at the Perfect Game National Showcase -- carried more weight than inconsistency elsewhere.
"Michigan high school baseball is not at the level of the summer circuit," Shirley said of Bonemer. "When he's facing the pro level-type arms all summer on this circuit and he's performing at an extremely high level, and he's driving in runs, he's coming up clutch."
Bonemer was drafted as a shortstop, and Shirley said the White Sox will "exhaust every avenue to keep him at that position," which is to say that it's unlikely to be his long-term defensive home, but he'll get a shot to disprove that in the low minors.
Brian Bannister
A quick rationalization for an organization in need of offense taking two pitchers in their first three picks is that they acquired developmental projects they're confident in, and that the draft is about acquiring value rather than building out a well-rounded major league roster.
Shirley didn't leave anything to subtext, specifically mentioning Bannister's fondness for both Smith and Larson. When he spoke to media in Arizona last month, Bannister tried to downplay his role in any draft day decision-making, stating that he was simply excited to see who Shirley liked and that he would work from there, but the White Sox scouting director only sought to hype up his involvement. And honestly, why not bring up the guy the organization hired away for exactly these sorts of projects.
"Brian Bannister was excited about what Blake did, our scouts were excited about Blake," Shirley said. "The interesting part about Larson, which is so different in the stuff world we're living in, if you watch, his fifth and sixth inning was better than his first and second. He gets stronger as the game goes, which is uncommon in this world of stuff. Guys come out blowing heaters. This guy is really competitive. You'll see his best stuff sometimes later in the game because he's trying to put his foot on the gas pedal when it counts and he's trying to get wins."
Smith's huge fastball, sweeping slider and developing changeup suggest another supinating power left-hander in the mold of Crochet or Jake Eder. While Smith says he likes where his changeup is at, but just hasn't needed it a ton in games, it's at least the skeleton of a pitching profile that Bannister has helped add cutters to this year. The Zoom recording didn't quite catch it, but Shirley's initial response to my question on whether a cutter addition is possible for Smith is best described as a wry smile.
"We’ve taken Garrett, we’ve taken Noah and now we’ve got another piece of the same sector," Shirley said. "It’s working, guys. I’d like to think that our success rate in this arena is something we need to continue to build on. You guys know what starting pitching means in this league. It’s hard to find. And you need a bunch of it if you’re going to build championship clubs."
Big financial asks in a new landscape
Most media sessions with scouting directors are triumphant in tone, and this was no different, but Shirley certainly spoke like a man at the end of an exhillirating day that had included some frustration.
"There was a lot of movement in the first five picks," Shirley said. "There was a delayed process a little bit with Cleveland, everybody in the industry was waiting for the Guardians to set that parameter."
The Sox wound up with two prep picks, suggesting they found targets for what's usually a small collection of shots to land higher-ceiling talent with over-slot agreements. Shirley noted both the expected impact of NIL money offering players more leverage when weighing whether to enter pro ball or begin/stay in college baseball. But he also made it clear he didn't feel much of the high school crop was being realistic about other new elements of the college baseball landscape.
"I'm a little surprised at the high school players not taking a more realistic look at where they fit in the landscape of the transfer portal. It's tough for those incoming freshmen. It seems like the demand requests were a little elevated," Shirley said. "We still think there's -- guys in the room right now going back through it -- there are some players left on the board. We'll have to make sure we navigate the financials of this. Hopefully these players -- everybody wants to go Day 1. Once they get a chance to lay their head on the pillow, swallow a little bit of the disappointment, maybe we should say, hopefully the numbers come back a little bit more to reality tomorrow and we can strike where we need to strike."
It'd be nice when the dust settles and this draft is years in the past, to find out which player asking for a $2 million bonus really was the straw that broke the camel's back for Shirley.
"Everybody wants to go Day 1," Shirley said. "It's funny, a lot of the players will ask for $2 million. Well, I want $2 million also, but you don't always get what you want, if that makes sense. So you go back in there. You have to let people get more comfortable and go back in there and strike a good deal and most importantly, reach for some ceiling and players you believe can have impact. We need bats, as a whole."
