A few days ago, I was preparing to write a post wondering which White Sox would go the entire season without a homer. It was mainly a way of pointing out Dominic Fletcher threatening to go the distance in not hitting for distance --a very problematic trait for a corner outfielder no matter how well he fields -- while also roping in what could be a very quiet end to Nicky Lopez's White Sox career, along with a couple stray thoughts about Zach DeLoach and Chuckie Robinson and Jacob Amaya and so on and so forth.
And it would've aged very poorly, because Lopez led off Wednesday's White Sox winner over the Orioles with a homer ...
... and Fletcher reached Eutaw Street later in the game.
With all due respect to DeLoach, Robinson and Amaya, their odds are mostly limited by playing time, so the hook for that article disappeared. Even Robinson had a 375-foot fly out on Sunday.
Now it's back to wondering which White Sox is most likely to lead the team in homers, which is a disappointing exercise we last conducted in 2022. Then, Andrew Vaughn held a one-homer lead over José Abreu, 15-14, with Gavin Sheets and Luis Robert Jr. technically in play.
Vaughn ended up earning the title with 17 homers, but the second-place finisher came out of nowhere, as Eloy Jiménez doubled his dinger total in September alone with eight homers in 29 games.
Whether one of the White Sox currently well off the lead can mount a furious comeback is one question we technically have to entertain, even briefly, given the precedent. The other wrinkle this time around: Paul DeJong remains the clubhouse leader with 18 despite the fact that the White Sox traded him to Kansas City at the end of July.
Everybody listed below is chasing DeJong's total, so when considering the three to five candidates, the answer could very well be "none of them."
Andrew Vaughn (16 homers)
The case for: He retook the team lead on Thursday, and he leads the White Sox in plate appearances by 90, so he's likely to get as many chances as possible down the stretch. He leads the White Sox in barrels, and he's already hit five homers in a month this season, so he's not being asked to do something he hasn't done.
The case against: He just ended an 0-for-25 skid, which reminds everybody that his bat can disappear. He hit just two homers in August despite mostly excellent production otherwise. He's hit 11 of his 16 homers at home, and the White Sox only have nine games remaining at Guaranteed Rate Field. He's never had a strong September, and perhaps his standout workload means the White Sox will allow him to wind it down in order to accommodate at-bats for Miguel Vargas, Bryan Ramos, Yoán Moncada, etc. at the DH spot.
Andrew Benintendi (15 homers)
The case for: He hit .278/.363/.589 with seven homers in August, the result of settling on one consistent stance and loading action, rather than toggling between a leg kick, a toe tap and other options during the worst first half of his life. With runs at a premium, Grady Sizemore doesn't seem likely to rest Benintendi unless he has to, because unless the White Sox suddenly want to see a lot more from DeLoach, there aren't any young outfielders who are a threat to his playing time.
The case against: He's still playing through Achilles tendinitis, which means he's at risk of being shut down if it flares up. He's also reliant on Guaranteed Rate Field (.254/.322/.445, 10 homers), as his production suffers elsewhere (.180/.231/.304, 5 homers). He hasn't hit 20 homers in a season since 2017, so counting on him to hit 11 homers in two months feels a little bit like recency bias.
Luis Robert Jr. (14 homers)
The case for: He's the strongest guy on the team, and historically the biggest threat to hit homers in bunches. Assuming he's healthy, there isn't any reason to sit him for anybody else. He didn't leave the yard on Wednesday, but he hit a couple of doubles.
The case against: He's only homered in one of his last 33 games -- he happened to hit two that night -- and he's struck out 36 times against two walks since the start of August, so his plate approach isn't really giving him much of a chance to do damage on a regular basis. He departed Wednesday's game with hamstring tightness, so the risk of an IL stint can't be underestimated.
Just about impossible
Korey Lee (10 homers): He's only hitting .202/.223/.321 with two homers in the second half, so the fact that he got to double digits at all feels like a miracle.
Gavin Sheets (8 homers): He's technically in the position Jiménez was in 2022, but he'd have to match his home run total from last year over the final 23 games, some of which he'll sit because it's not worth playing him against lefties. If you bet $10 on Sheets with the odds he faces, you would lose $10.
