HoF’s “Let’s Try, Anyway” Plan

PREAMBLE

What could the White Sox do?

That's the question I'm asking in my OPP. That's different than what they should do or will do. They should sign Juan Soto but won't. They will disappoint me. But my OPP just tries for what they could do: moves I think would be solid, but within the self-imposed constraints or reflect past spending habits.

Finally, I want them to try. I am under no illusions that they'll field a playoff team this year. But at this point I'm in principle against tanking, especially several years in a row. They are in a huge market. We're not asking for a top 3 payroll. Spend some money, field a better team, and let your fans enjoy baseball again. If it ends in 71 wins, so be it.

MANAGER

Will Venable. I don't really have a compelling reason why other than he seems like a good hire. But managers feel like a crap shoot to me. Francona would have been my top option, bus alas.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

• Andrew Vaughn: $6.4M - RE-WORK (below)
• Nicky Lopez: $5.1M - NON-TENDER
• Garrett Crochet: $2.9M - EXTEND (below)
• Gavin Sheets: $2.6M - NON-TENDER
• Enyel De Los Santos: $1.7M - NON-TENDER
• Jimmy Lambert: $1.2M - NON-TENDER
• Justin Anderson: $1.1M - NON-TENDER
• Steven Wilson: $1M - TENDER
• Matt Foster: $900K - NON-TENDER

CLUB OPTIONS

Write “pick up” or “decline” or “rework” after the option.

• Yoán Moncada: $25M ($5M buyout) - DECLINE
• Max Stassi: $7M ($500K buyout) - DECLINE

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

Try to retain, extend qualifying offer, or let go?

• Michael Soroka (Made $3M in 2023) - LET GO
• Mike Clevinger ($3M) - LET GO
• Chris Flexen ($1.75) - LET GO

FREE AGENTS

No. 1: Andrew Vaughn (2 years, $9m)
If he's not interested in this, I'll let him walk. But $6.5m is too much. The reason to retain like this is the glimmer of hope that he puts it together, then he's a nice candidate to flip at the deadline at a reasonable price. After seeing how 1B did last year and the crop of 1B this year, I'm guessing he doesn't want a piece of free agency after the year he had. We'll see.

No. 2: Garrett Crochet (4 years, $80m + 2 club-options at $25m each)
It would be fun if the White Sox tried to keep their best players instead of trading them. I get the case for trading him and I'll be as excited as the next guy for the prospects when they do. But I wish they would explore this option. For one, he's an excellent pitcher and this is a reasonable price. For two, it's possible this increases his trade value. If he has an excellent 2025, a pitcher of his caliber and age, under control for five more years—that would be very valuable.

This is a deal I think Garrett (financially, at least) is interested in. Because of his slower start, he's yet to make much in arbitration. Pitchers—arguably, especially so with him—run enormous injury risk every year. This locks in uber wealth for him, when his career earnings so far are south of $5m. His arb track is slower than most of his caliber, so this is effectively a ~$30m raise over the next two years. That's gotta be tough to turn down—and the contract maxes out at $130m.

No. 3: Gleyber Torres (4 years, $70m)
Sportrac has him receiving 3 years, $21m ($7m AAV). That sounds low to me, so I'll bump that up a bit and add the tax for playing for this awful franchise.

No. 4: Michael Conforto (3 years, $20m)
Sportrac has him at 1 year, $4.7m. That also feels low. But this guy will play in a Sox uniform at some point. Why not now, when he's just kind-of broken?

No. 5: Mark Cahna (1 year, $8m)
Sportrac has him at 1 year, $2m. That also feels low. Maybe Sportrac is just way off and all these salaries are low? Oh well. But 1 year feels right, at his age.

No. 6: Alex Wood (1 year, $3m)
Eh, why not?

TRADES

No. 1: Trade Davis Martin, Oscar Colas to the Reds for Cam Collier.
Baseball Trade Values doesn't have the Reds values up yet, but based on my fiddling with White Sox/Orioles trades and cross-referencing them with FG FV, this should work. FG has Collier as a 40 FV, but other outlets like him more. Under Francona, I think the Reds are ready to compete. They could use SP depth, and they have INF galore. The Sox trade from a position of depth to get a prospect need, and push value into the future. I would be fine to keep Colas, but the Sox seem ready to move on.

SUMMARY

In addition to some of the signings and the trade, I'm taking a "let the kids play" approach. I don't subscribe to the school of thought that a player needs to dominate a level before moving on. In another down year, why not let the prospects get some MLB development? Will they struggle? Yes. If it's bad enough, send them back down to AAA and they'll have a better sense of what they need to work on. But in the meantime, bring up the prospects and give them ABs with your best coaches in Chicago.

This team checks in at $110m. Either put that extra $3m in player development, or tell Bannister, "do with it what you want."

I don't know how many games this team wins, but I'd put a little money on more wins than last year.

Squad

C- Quero, Lee
1B - Vaughn
2B - Gleyber Torres, Sosa
3B - Ramos, Vargas
SS - Montgomery, Baldwin
LF - Benintendi
CF - Robert
RF - Cahna, Fletcher
DH - Mix 'n Match
SP - Crochet, Thorpe, Cannon, Burke, Wood (AAA depth: Iriarte, Nastrini, Bush, Eder)
RP - Leasure, Varland, Berroa, Wilson, Shuster, Pallette, Peralta, McGough

Accounting