2025 MLB Draft Report: Midseason Top 50 Update and Watch Board 2.0

In last week’s National High School Invitational, I was most excited to see Corona High School righty Seth Hernandez. Early reviews of the California prep pitcher's 2025 campaign were glowing, and I hoped to see the premium velocity many were hyping him to be a top-five pick. Not only did Hernandez flash 99 mph in his seven innings of work, but the four-seamer might not even be his best pitch. For teenagers, trying to stay on top of this level of heat is one thing, but mixing in a plus changeup is borderline unfair. 

Out of Hernandez's 11 strikeouts, seven of them came via the changeup. He gets good sinking action on the change that falls off the table when hitting the zone. Hernandez also threw a few breaking pitches to get right-handers to chase. I'm not sure how confident Hernandez is throwing curves for strikes, so that's an opportunity for a future MLB team to work with him on better secondaries against right-handed hitters. 

With every MLB team in attendance, Hernandez finished his outing with an impressive line (7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K on 95 pitches). We've never seen a prep right-handed pitcher get selected first overall, but Hernandez is an exceptional talent. Maybe the Washington Nationals are brave enough to take that chance. 

Now that the NHSI is completed and we are past the midway point of the college baseball season, it's time to update the Sox Machine Top 50 Draft Prospect rankings and my Watch Board.

First, the rankings below are led by two pitchers: Hernandez and Florida State left-handed pitcher Jamie Arnold. I struggled to decide who should be No. 1 overall. While the industry thinks that Arnold's TrackMan metrics are impressive and can play in the majors, I think Hernandez has a higher ceiling. But we've been burned so many times with prep arms (hello, Tyler Kolek) that I'm going with Arnold at the top spot, followed closely by Hernandez. 

The top position player is Hernandez's teammate, shortstop Billy Carlson. Carlson will probably stick at shortstop, but he could use some help to be more balanced in his swing. There's a lot of momentum stepping into his swing, and I don't know how Carlson would handle breaking pitches at the next level. There's a chance for Carlson to gain more strength and, with his excellent athleticism, to be an impact player offensively. It's not Bobby Witt Jr.'s type of ceiling, but maybe a young Dansby Swanson. 

Oregon State's Aiva Arquette is the top college bat, and I think he will eventually move off shortstop and over to third base professionally. At 6'5", Arquette has a big-body frame that could make him a consistent 25-plus home run hitter professionally. In his first season with Oregon State, Arquette has cut his ground-ball rate down to 34 percent, which has boosted his slugging percentage to .695 in 2025. In 34 games, Arquette has 11 home runs and nine doubles while hitting .352/.465/.695. 

After Arquette, it's a collection of intriguing prep bats, with Ethan Holliday, Eli Willits, and Kayson Cunningham, for various reasons. Holliday is the best power bat of the three, as he's closer to his Dad's profile (Matt) than his brother's (Jackson). I don't doubt Holliday's ability to hit, but I don't know his future defensive home. Many say third base, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's pushed into the outfield. 

Willits will be 17 years old on draft day and get his opportunity to shine on Friday when his school, Fort Cobb-Broxton, squares off with Holliday's Stillwater team. Like Carlson, there's little doubt that Willits has the makings to develop into a shortstop. Cunningham will find a home somewhere in the infield, but he's more than a speedy left-handed hitter. As we saw from the summer showcases, Cunningham can drive the ball and might have more untapped power potential.

Midseason Top 50 2025 Draft Rankings 

Watch Board 2.0

From a Chicago White Sox perspective, I can sense a bit of tension looking at the Top 50 update and see two college starting pitchers hovering around the 10th spot with Tennessee left-handed pitcher Liam Doyle and Oklahoma right-hander Kyson Witherspoon. If the White Sox wanted to stick with what they are good at developing, then maybe Doyle is the top target to pair with Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith. 

But watching this White Sox offense and seeing how few premium-hitting prospects the franchise currently has, they could use an impact bat. Preseason number one prospect Jace LaViolette and Wake Forest shortstop Marek Houston could be the best options. We are finally seeing LaViolette pick up his overall numbers after a good series against South Carolina this past weekend, but it's still a 20.5 percent K-rate. LaViollette has cut the strikeout rate by almost 4 percent, but that would mean three straight college seasons that strike out 20 percent or more of the time. Expect a lot of swings and misses professionally. 

I doubt Houston even gets to the White Sox at Pick 10, but he's ice-cold hitting. In his last 12 games, Houston is 8-for-45 (.178) with two doubles and no home runs. The strikeout-to-walk ratio has also flipped. Before this stretch, Houston had 20 walks to 11 strikeouts. Starting on March 28, Houston has 16 strikeouts to eight walks during this span. Hopefully, this level of hitting doesn't last for Houston, as his slash line in ACC games is .293/.389/.560. That's still good, but a drop from his season totals of .345/.451/.615.

My draft crush is still Tennessee's second baseman Gavin Kilen, who was finally healthy enough to put up good numbers against Ole Miss this past weekend. Kilen was able to play in all three games and went 6-for-16 with a home run and a double. Tennessee still has a series against LSU (April 25-27), Vanderbilt (May 9-11), and Arkansas (May 15-17). All present good opportunities for Kilen to catch up and impress scouts. 

I doubtlessly struggled to come up with my final Watch Board rankings after the midseason update. While I think the White Sox have a great need to add bats to this system, if the correct mentality should always be taking the best player on the board, it very well could be another starting pitcher at No. 10. At this stage, I think all White Sox fans should prepare themselves for that real possibility. 

With my update, I'm still going with a bat on top. 

Games I’m Watching this Weekend

Kentucky at Tennessee

• Friday, April 18: 5:30 PM CT - SEC+
• Saturday, April 19: 5:00 PM CT - SEC+
• Sunday, April 20: 12:00 PM CT - SEC+

Prospects to watch: LHP Liam Doyle, 2B Gavin Kilen, 3B Dean Curley, and 1B Andrew Fischer

Alabama at LSU

• Thursday, April 17: 7:00 PM CT - ESPNU
• Friday, April 18: 6:00 PM CT - SEC+
• Saturday, April 19: 5:00 PM CT - SEC Network

Prospects to watch: SS Justin Lebron, RHP Riley Quick, LHP Kade Anderson, and 2B Daniel Dickinson

Next Week: Mock Draft I