In the first MLB draft lottery at the 2022 winter meetings, the Pittsburgh Pirates were lucky to win the first overall pick. Despite having the third-worst record the preceding season, Pittsburgh had the same lottery odds as Washington and Oakland to win the top selection. The Nationals didn’t do too badly for themselves as they selected second overall, but the Athletics suffered the most from random chance, fallng to No. 6 despite having the second-worst record.
Since the MLB Draft lottery was introduced, the team with the worst record has yet to select first overall. Some would say that the process to deter tanking is working. It certainly impacted the White Sox, as 121 losses only netted them the 10th overall pick because they were ineligible for the lottery by having a top-five pick the previous year.
| Season | Team with Worst Record | First Round Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Washington Nationals | Pick 2 |
| 2023 | Oakland Athletics | Pick 4 |
| 2024 | Chicago White Sox* | Pick 10 |
* Not eligible to select first overall due to collective bargaining agreement rules.
| Season | Team with First Pick | Worst Record Standing |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 3rd |
| 2023 | Cleveland Guardians | 9th |
| 2024 | Washington Nationals | 4th |
| Season | Team with 2nd Worst Record | First Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Oakland Athletics | Pick 6 |
| 2023 | Kansas City Royals | Pick 6 |
| 2024 | Miami Marlins | Pick 7 |
What we've seen after three draft lotteries is that the team finishing with the second-worst record has been incredibly unlucky. Despite having the same odds to win the first overall pick, not a single team that finished with the second-worst record has drafted in the top five the following summer.
Not having the ping pong balls bounce in your favor can really hurt the draft bonus pool under the CBA rules. If the draft lottery didn't exist, the White Sox would have gained $4,837,500 in signing bonus pool room (the difference between pick 1 and pick 10) this past draft, and the Marlins $3,102,800 (the difference between pick 2 and pick 7). If Mike Shirley had another $1.5 million (or more) to spend, he probably would have tried to sign a higher-ceiling prospect in the third round. That loss in draft pool money can be significant, which is why so much of a front office's strategy is dependent on luck.
| Draft Year | Pick 1 Slot Bonus | % Increase from last draft |
| 2023 | $9,721,000 | 9.8% |
| 2024 | $10,570,600 | 8.7% |
| 2025 | $11,075,900 | 4.7% |
| 2026 | $11,605,350 | 4.7% |
For the 2026 MLB Draft, the CBA rules will acutely affect the Colorado Rockies, who are currently on pace to finish 44-118 but are ineligible to select first overall, as they have had back-to-back seasons of selecting in the top five. The best they can hope for next July is the 10th overall pick. What hurt the White Sox this summer now helps them in the next draft season, as they currently have the best odds to win the first overall selection. According to MLB Tankathon, the White Sox have a 25.55 percent chance of earning the first overall pick. But again, no team that has finished with the worst overall record has actually won the first overall pick in three tries now.
For just about all of the season to this point, it appeared the White Sox would have no challenger for worst record among teams eligible for the top pick, but a drastic teardown at the deadline makes the Twins their rival in a new, grotesque manner.
On June 1, 2025, the White Sox were 18-41 and 13.5 games behind the Minnesota Twins. Since that date, the Sox have played much better baseball as they are 42-70 and have gained three games on the Twins. The Sox offense seems to have turned a corner since the second half started, while half of the Twins' roster is newly unrecognizable.
Entering the off day on Aug. 4, the White Sox are 10-5 while boasting one of the highest team OPS post All-Star break. The Minnesota Twins are 3-10 and carrying an American League-worst 5.63 ERA since the All-Star break. Even though 10 1/2 game is a lot of ground to make up, it's possible that the White Sox could catch the Twins. Shoot, before Sunday's late-inning meltdown in Anaheim, the Athletics, Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, and Atlanta Braves all felt well within range as well. The Nationals, just like the Rockies, are ineligible to select in the top nine picks.
As we have learned in the first three MLB draft lotteries, don’t fret if the White Sox play so well in the final two months that they lose out with the best odds to draft first overall. The whole process has been very random and somewhat chaotic, which surely was the league's intended outcome. The good news is that the 2026 MLB Draft class will feature better college bats than we saw recently drafted. So even if the White Sox lottery ball doesn’t net them the first overall pick, there’s plenty of quality hitters to go around in the top five picks.
Moreover, jostling for position at the top of the draft is about securing the rights to add one prospect to the organization. In Colson Montgomery, Edgar Quero, Kyle Teel, Grant Taylor, Shane Smith, Chase Meidroth, Curtis Mead and still more others, the Sox have a slew of young players important to their future on their active roster. The team needs them to develop into solid contributors, and if that happens at any kind of successful rate, wins will be a byproduct.
So enjoy this hot streak, and root for it to continue through September. That means that when the White Sox bullpen implodes on a Sunday afternoon, it just hurts, and the pain the can't be as easily blunted by the comfort of it being a tank win that improves the team's draft standing. But we won’t know until December in Orlando where the White Sox will pick next July, and if history is any teacher, we couldn't count on the dominoes falling in order anyway.
